Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves Arkansas Senate Race To Tossup

FILE - In this file photo taken Aug. 2, 2013, U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor is interviewed at his campaign office in Little Rock, Ark. Pryor is part of a string of Senate incumbents and challengers with long family ties who c... FILE - In this file photo taken Aug. 2, 2013, U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor is interviewed at his campaign office in Little Rock, Ark. Pryor is part of a string of Senate incumbents and challengers with long family ties who could help determine whether Democrats maintain their control of the Senate in the 2014 elections. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston, File) MORE LESS
Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball website has moved the Arkansas Senate race from “leans Republican” to “tossup.”

That rating switch, made on Thursday, comes in light of a number of recent polls showing Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) leading Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR), the presumptive Republican nominee in the race for Pryor’s seat.

“It’s become clear over the past few months that Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR), despite the increasing Republican lean of his state, has been holding his own, or better, against Rep. Tom Cotton (R, AR-4),” Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik wrote in a post on the ratings change.

Three of the recent polls have shown Pryor with a double-digit lead over Cotton which has prompted Cotton to take a more positive approach to campaigning where he’s released multiple ads highlighting his background his background. Cotton’s campaign has also released an internal campaign poll showing the race in a near perfect dead heat.

Latest Livewire

Notable Replies

  1. May Senator Pryor’s lead grow even (ACA) healthier until election dat.

  2. "Three of the recent polls have shown Pryor with a double-digit lead over Cotton "
    = Tossup.

    Right.

    What fucking planet is Sabato from? Oh yeah: Planet Several-Generations-Ago.

  3. Anyone know Mr. Sabato’s record when ti comes to predicting the future?

  4. Avatar for bdtex bdtex says:

    Landrieu,Hagan,Pryor and probably Nunn are gonna win. Rick Scott will lose his Governor’s race. Can’t wait to see the GOP’s despair over losing those Southern races in a midterm election. A Grimes win would be the nail on the coffin. Begich is gonna win in Alaska too.

  5. Breaking! In face of growing mountain of polling evidence that Pryor is, and at all times has been, ahead in race, dispenser of Beltway Conventional Wisdom reluctantly moves race from “leans Republican” to “tossup!”

Continue the discussion at forums.talkingpointsmemo.com

23 more replies

Participants

Avatar for system1 Avatar for bdtex Avatar for lestatdelc Avatar for redrasputinmn Avatar for jhiestand Avatar for ncsteve Avatar for fargo116 Avatar for ryp Avatar for ecmiles Avatar for trippin Avatar for coltraning Avatar for csstrowbridge Avatar for sniffit Avatar for daveyjones64 Avatar for gr Avatar for twowolves Avatar for foolmemore Avatar for seedoubleyou Avatar for occamsrazor2

Continue Discussion
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Deputy Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: