Larry Sabato's Final Prediction: Clinton Wins, With A Tied Senate

Patrick Semansky

On election eve, the University of Virginia's respected Center for Politics is predicting Hillary Clinton will be the country's 45th president.

"Not even on Clinton’s worst campaign days did we ever have her below 270 electoral votes," the team at University of Virginia wrote.

The team predicts that Clinton will win Tuesday with 322 electoral votes compared to Trump's 216 and that the U.S. Senate will be tied 50-50 with Vice President Tim Kaine serving as its tie breaker.

The silver lining for Republicans is that they are still expected to hold the House of Representatives, but the UVa crew writes that they will likely lose 13 seats.

Sabato's Crystal Ball prognosticates that Democrats will pick up Senate seats in Wisconsin, Illinois, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Republicans, meanwhile, are slated to hold their seats in North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio and Florida. In Nevada where Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring, Sabato wrote that Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat, is most likely to win.

In the presidential contest, Sabato and his team believe that Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and Nevada all lean in Clinton's direction. Meanwhile, Ohio, Utah, Arizona, and Iowa all lean toward Trump – although the team notes that Ohio and North Carolina are both squeakers.

Ohio may be a real toss-up state. "Buckeye history and demography point to Trump, but Clinton’s ground operation could come through for her in the end," they wrote.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Lauren Fox is a reporter at Talking Points Memo.
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