Larry Sabato’s Final Prediction: Clinton Wins, With A Tied Senate

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton smiles while listening to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/Pa... Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton smiles while listening to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during the third presidential debate at UNLV in Las Vegas, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky) MORE LESS
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On election eve, the University of Virginia’s respected Center for Politics is predicting Hillary Clinton will be the country’s 45th president.

“Not even on Clinton’s worst campaign days did we ever have her below 270 electoral votes,” the team at University of Virginia wrote.

The team predicts that Clinton will win Tuesday with 322 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 216 and that the U.S. Senate will be tied 50-50 with Vice President Tim Kaine serving as its tie breaker.

The silver lining for Republicans is that they are still expected to hold the House of Representatives, but the UVa crew writes that they will likely lose 13 seats.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball prognosticates that Democrats will pick up Senate seats in Wisconsin, Illinois, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Republicans, meanwhile, are slated to hold their seats in North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio and Florida. In Nevada where Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring, Sabato wrote that Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democrat, is most likely to win.

In the presidential contest, Sabato and his team believe that Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and Nevada all lean in Clinton’s direction. Meanwhile, Ohio, Utah, Arizona, and Iowa all lean toward Trump – although the team notes that Ohio and North Carolina are both squeakers.

Ohio may be a real toss-up state. “Buckeye history and demography point to Trump, but Clinton’s ground operation could come through for her in the end,” they wrote.

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Notable Replies

  1. Avatar for sooner sooner says:

    And I predict that the sun will once again rise in the east.

    And that Carnival Cruz begins his campaign for POTUS 2020 :pensive:

    Could we pass a law mandating that in election years the Word Series would be expanded to enough games to run a few days past the election please?

  2. Avatar for mymy mymy says:

    Tied Senate means Tim Kaine RULES!

  3. I think we can pull off a win in the senate race here in NC.

  4. “Not even on Clinton’s worst campaign days did we ever have her below 270 electoral votes,” the team at University of Virginia wrote.


    Nate?

  5. Well, until Joe Manchin gets upset about something and decides he’d rather not have a D after his name.

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