Gallup has new data showing that the number of Americans who consider themselves Republicans is up to 40 percent in numbers from June to August of this year, versus 37 percent who felt that way from January to March of 2008. Those Americans who identify as “conservative” has also jumped two points in that time.
Gallup’s analysis suggests the Republican rank-and-file, though slightly larger in number, is similar in demographic and ideological composition to what it was in 2008. From that perspective alone, it doesn’t appear as if the GOP would necessarily reject a more moderate nominee (such as McCain in 2008) in favor of a more conservative one in 2012.
However, the selection of the Republican nominee for president will, as was the case in 2008, largely be determined by the candidates’ strategies, whom they are running against, and how they fare in campaigning, debates, and early primaries and caucuses — and not necessarily by who most closely matches the profile of Republicans nationally.
