Four straight polls of the Arkansas Senate race have found Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) leading challenger Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR).
Although some of the polls are from Democratic-leaning groups and each of the polls find him with a razor-thin lead, the fact that a rough handful of surveys found Pryor in the lead is notable given that Pryor is considered one of the most endangered Democrats in the 2014 election cycle.
A pro-minimum wage hike organization released a new poll conducted by Opinion Research Associates showing Pryor with 48 percent support to Cotton with 38 percent of the vote. The pollster surveyed 400 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. It was conducted from April 1 to April 8.
A Hickman Analytics poll on behalf of the Consumer Energy Alliance found Pryor leading Cotton 40 percent to 37 percent among 400 likely voters. That poll was conducted February 17 to February 20. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
A Talk Business-Hendrix College poll found Pryor leading Cotton 45.5 percent to Cotton with 42.5 percent with 8 percent undecided. In October the poll found Pryor with a one point lead, 42 percent to 41 percent with 17 percent undecided. The most recent Hendrix poll was conducted among 1,068 likely Arkansas voters between April 3 and April 4. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Another poll by the Anzalone Liszt Grove pollster on behalf of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee found a tight race with Pryor leading (albeit within the margin of error). That poll found Pryor leading Cotton 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided. The Grove poll surveyed 600 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll was conducted from March 27 to April 2.
Still, Cotton is a highly competitive candidate. Polling guru Nate Silver, in a recent forecast, gave Pryor just a 30 percent chance of retaining his seat and a 70 percent chance that it would fall into Republican control.
I don’t think the GOP is gonna do as well in Senate races as they think they are. In fact,I’ve been saying that all year. GOPs are gonna lose 3-5 Governorships and probably some House seats. I believe,worst case scenario for the Senate after 11/4 is 51-49 Dems and I can plausibly envision a scenario where GOPs only gain one Senate seat. I believe GOPs are gonna be furious on 11/5 and the infighting we see now is nothing like what we’re gonna see after 11/4.
Absolutely! I think Begich, Hagan (I very much think she’s going to benefit from the Moral Monday’s movement), Pryor, and probably Landrieu will hang on by a hair. In the end, I expect this election to be mostly a push in which Democrats walk away largely satisfied while Republicans will be utterly livid that they blew their chance at taking the Senate for at least another 4 years.
Sounds like Silver will have to update his forecast with this data. I don’t see how the data supports the 30% success prediction Silver gives the incumbent. This data certainly doesn’t bode well for a GOP takeover of the Senate, if Pryor is the most likely to be flipped.
Do we have any primates from Arkansas with us on TPM? If so, what’s your thinking?