New Poll Focused On Hispanic Voters Gives Udall 1-Point Edge In Colorado

Additional reporting by Sahil Kapur

Less than a week before Election Day and with early voting under underway, Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) holds a slim 1-point advantage over Republican candidate Cory Gardner, according to a new poll provided to TPM that attempted to suss out the Hispanic vote in more detail.

The Strategies 360 poll puts Udall at 45 percent and Gardner at 44 percent. The poll by the consulting group, which has a Denver office, was not commissioned by any outside group.

What is unique about the poll, however, is that it intentionally over-samples Hispanic voters and then re-weights the findings to reflect their share of the anticipated electorate on Election Day. “The sample was weighted to ensure a proportional demographic representation of the likely 2014 electorate,” the pollster explained.

Among Hispanic voters surveyed, Udall leads Gardner 58-26. Hispanic voters — and whether pollsters have been accurately capturing them — has been a subject of debate with polls generally showing Gardner ahead.

Most recent independent polls have shown Gardner with a consistent lead, though Democratic groups have released their own polling that gives Udall a small edge. According to TPM’s PollTracker average, Gardner currently stands at 46 percent, with Udall behind at 43.5 percent.

The Strategies 360 poll, conducted Oct. 20 to 25, surveyed 604 representative likely voters and 156 Hispanic voters. Its top-line margin of error is 4 points.

S360 CO Statewide Release Memo