Poll Shows Dem With Unexpectedly Huge Lead In Key Senate Race

FILE - This March 3, 2014 file photo shows Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, as he speaks to reporters after a joint session of the Alaska Legislature in Juneau, Alaska. The top prize of the November midterm elections is c... FILE - This March 3, 2014 file photo shows Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, as he speaks to reporters after a joint session of the Alaska Legislature in Juneau, Alaska. The top prize of the November midterm elections is control of the Senate for the final two years of President Barack Obama’s administration, with Republicans needing to pick up six more seats to take over. (AP Photo/Becky Bohrer, File) MORE LESS
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An Anchorage polling firm is giving Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) an unexpectedly huge lead in his re-election bid less than two weeks before Election Day and with early voting underway.

Hellenthal and Associates shows Begich up 10 points over Republican challenger Dan Sullivan, 49 percent to 39 percent. It is by far the biggest lead that Begich has seen and runs counter to most public polling, which has shown Sullivan with a consistent advantage since mid-September.

Another poll released Friday and sponsored by Democratic PAC’s supporting Begich showed the race tied at 44 percent.

The Hellenthal and Associates poll, conducted Oct 15 to 21, surveyed 403 likely voters. Its margin of error is 4.9 points.

According to TPM’s PollTracker average, Begich currently holds a slight edge, 44.4 percent to 44.2 percent.

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Notable Replies

  1. I’m surprised. I would have thought that the presence of GOTP royalty like the Palins would have sewn up Alaska for the Republicans for the foreseeable future.

  2. Avatar for ryp ryp says:

    The margin of error puts this in the same range as the tied poll. I doubt he’s that far ahead, but it’s nice to see Sullivan’s lead has gone.

  3. Avatar for rick rick says:

    Outlier!

  4. The margin of error puts this in the same range as the tied poll.

    The margin of error is 4.88%
    The lead is 10%

  5. Hellenthal is a Republican pollster.

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