I want to enlist your assistance. I am trying to devise a conceptual and hopefully numerical framework to understand, track and if possible quantify the degree to which Ted Cruz’s reputation as an asshole will play into his ability to navigate the current presidential eligibility challenge. As former McCain lawyer and FEC Chair Trevor Potter noted, McCain’s campaign determined in 2008 that he was on solid ground as ‘natural born’. But a major part of their calculation was based on the fact that McCain was born on what was then US controlled territory in Panama. Regardless of the legal calculus, though, there was a clear goodwill factor that helped McCain a great deal. Given that he was liked by many and respected by more colleagues in the Senate and had the status as a war hero, many of his colleagues and political elites were happy to step forward – almost regardless of the particulars – and say “Of course, John McCain is eligible to serve as President.” They even did as much in a sense of the Senate resolution.
Clearly, Cruz faces an inverse challenge. We have McCain himself constantly crapping on him, Rep. King telling him to go back under the rock he came from, Majority Leader McConnell saying he’s not going to lift a finger. Cruz has zero reserve of goodwill to draw on. And in fact, the widespread antipathy and dislike for him is making many politicians who probably think he is qualified are happy to let him swing in the wind. So many of them are happy to give a quote to just keep the story coming.
So, how to quantify this?
I’m tentatively adopting a Marginal Assholery Discount (MAD) as a way to make quantify this – a discounted value or rather a knock-down on the probability that Cruz can survive challenges to his eligibility based on being an asshole who basically no one likes. In other words, we are trying to factor together fundamentals (the law, albeit law that is fuzzy and not certain) and the human factor of people not liking someone who’s a jerk and having that affect their judgments and actions, either in positive or negative terms.
I talked to one of my colleagues to find some corollary model we could use from the world of finance. And there didn’t seem to be a clear one. “Goodwill” as an aspect of company value is similar in some ways, but obviously on the positive side. So I want to put this out, both to ask for alternative metrics to MAD but also to ask, if this is the right framework, what is the value?
If the uncertainty of the law means Cruz’s chances of being judged eligible is 90%, is the MAD knock it down to 80%, thus having a 10% value?
Or is it 1%? 30?
Let me know. I see this as a critical question.
