President Trump’s dismal poll numbers continue to be one of the few sources of joy and mirth in the bleak political hellscape his presidency has created. From a low of 35% a week ago in the daily Gallup Approval tracking poll, his approval number perked back up to 40%, only to fall back this weekend to 38%. Sad!, as they say.
What I hadn’t looked at in a while was the Rasmussen daily tracking poll which had had Trump at a wildly improbable 55% approval rating as recently as mid-February. Even Rasmussen now has Trump down at 43% approval, his lowest rating yet in that poll.
For years Rasmussen has specialized in various synthetic or questionable metrics, most of which have the effect of bolstering favored candidates. One of the less strained is to focus on “strong” approval and disapproval, as opposed to mere “approval.” But here too the numbers for Trump are bad. The most recent Rasmussen number puts Trump’s “strongly approve” number at 28%, down from 44% at his inauguration. Perhaps even more notable, “strongly disapprove” is at 47%. Almost half of Rasmussen’s already skewed sample “strongly disapproves” of President Trump.
These numbers are notable and entertaining. But the most interesting data in the latest batch of polls comes from the McClatchy/Marist poll. In this poll, released on the 31st, Trump has an approval number at 38%, down from 41% in February, broadly in line with other polls. Lee Miringoff, who runs the Marist poll, discusses the various details of the poll here. Really every number is dismal. But this, I think, is the most significant. From the Marist write-up …
There has been a profound shift in public opinion about whether or not President Trump is fulfilling campaign promises. 57% of Americans either strongly agree, 18%, or agree, 39%, that Trump is making good on the promises he made on the campaign trail. This is down from 71% in February. Regardless of party, fewer voters think he is keeping his word. Of note, 83% of Trump’s Republican base, down from 96% previously, believe Trump is fulfilling campaign promises.
“President Trump needs a major legislative win to get on track,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “No doubt the GOP in Congress will be closely watching the president’s standing among Republican voters.”
Those are steep drops and this is the big danger for Trump – likely a much greater danger, in the short term at least, than the scandal investigations most politicos are focusing on. Trump’s inability to repeal Obamacare is, I suspect, most of what is showing up in this drop. He simply failed to do something that, at least in numerical congressional majority terms, should have been simple. That made him look weak and ineffectual – frankly, silly. That and not corruption or ties with Russia is what will eventually sink Trump with his base.
It’s worth noting that many Trump voters actually would have been hurt by the repeal of Obamacare. But political perceptions are never that linear or straightforward. Especially for the kind of politics Trump appeals to, strength and the ability to compel action is central to support, even when the object of support is trying to do things individual supporters might not entirely agree with. Beyond the Obamacare repeal debacle, I suspect the reality is starting to sink in that Trump doesn’t have any clue what he’s doing as President and his top staffers and advisors show an almost unprecedented level of infighting and disorganization.
Trump simply hasn’t been able to get much of anything done. He continues to treat executive orders as a kind of proxy for legislation, even though the great majority of his EOs have pretty minimal effect. A new president whose party controls Congress should pass a mass of legislation in his first months in office. That’s been true of Trump’s last three predecessors – each of whom had total or near total control of Congress. Trump is well into his first hundred days, has passed no substantial legislation and looks unlikely to do so any time soon.
