I found this debate a bit hard to get a read on. In large part that’s because it was, at three hours, just ridiculously too long. Maybe if there were fewer candidates, that might have been different. More focus would have been possible. But with so many voices over three hours, it was just too much. By my read, it held together with some coherence for the first hour or maybe hour and a half. After that it just lost focus and seemed to be a disorganized run of questions. I don’t think that was Jake Tapper’s fault. It was just too long; too many people.
I thought that in substantive terms, Trump was actually a lot better than he was in the first debate. In the first, he was mainly just trash talk. It was very effective in the context. Fox made it all about him. This time he was much better, smoother. But in part because of that he was also less dominating. After the first hour or so, he seemed to fade into the background. Others were trying to vie for as much air time as possible. He seemed to feel no need to do so.
As I said earlier, when you boil all the chatter away, Trump restated his key points which may be nonsensical in substantive terms but are clear and appeal right to the GOP base. Deport 12 million people. Build a massive physical wall. You’re in America, speak English. These are uncompromising positions. They’re coherent. He says he can do these things. The others say these things sound good but aren’t realistic, are too hard, whatever. So on balance, I think he held the ground he needed to and made no mistakes. I’m not sure whether he’ll be damaged in the polls for not being a more dominating presence.
As for the others, we definitely saw a lot more of the other candidates. I remember wondering after the last debate whether Marco Rubio was even on the stage. He was there. Walker was there. Cruz was a big presence. Fiorina was dominating.
The key structural takeaway for me was Jeb Bush. He seemed weak and hapless. It is very difficult for me to see him shifting the balance and moving back into any kind of lead. He asked Trump for an apology; Trump said no. Then there was that awkward low five at the end. I was pitiful. If it’s not him and not Trump, it’s got to be one of the others and it’s really hard for me to see which one can break out. That left me seeing the whole field as unorganized and chaotic. The debate was unclarifying.
Even if Trump collapses over the next few weeks, when we look back on this race, I think it will be clear that in various ways over several weeks, Donald Trump destroyed Bush’s candidacy. If that’s true it’s a big, big deal because in Republican primaries the establishment guy with the money always wins. And Jeb’s that guy. If he’s out, the whole contest has no clear structure and it has to be one of the other candidates, each of whom have basic weaknesses as general election candidates. All bets are off.
On balance, not a dominating night for Trump. But I think he maintained a hold on the issue that is driving his success: xenophobia and extreme hostility to immigrants. If you supported Donald Trump going into this debate I don’t think you’re going to support him less tomorrow.
