Sanders in Michigan?


There’s still a bunch of Wayne County (Detroit) still to report. But Clinton’s margin is not very big there. If her margins stays where it is right now I suspect she loses. Really depends where in the county these votes are from. And I don’t know the answer to that. Meanwhile, Sanders’ margin is bizarrely stable at this point. It’s been almost identical from 1% reporting to 40%. Right around Sanders 51% to Clinton 47% almost the whole time.

Late Update – 10:12 PM: The first big chunk of votes in Wayne County came in a few minutes ago and it tightened the race a lot in Clinton’s favor. Sanders’ lead is now down to about a point and a half. We now have around half the votes in from Wayne and Clinton has a margin there of about 20 points. If that percentage holds that could put her over the top. But there are other parts of the state still to come in where Sanders has sizable margins. This is going to be very close.

10:15 PM: Sanders is pushing his margin up again.

10:31 PM: Clinton’s going to get a big chunk of votes out of Detroit at some point tonight. But Sanders is building up a pretty solid margin, maybe too big a margin for her to overcome even with a lot of votes in Detroit.

10:47 PM: There are a lot of Clinton votes almost certainly still to report in Wayne County. But Bernie Sanders has crept back to almost the 5 point margin he had earlier. That’s a big margin to overcome, even with a very lopsided turnout in the last 15 or 20 percent of the vote. A bit hard for me to see her pulling this out. The only wildcard here is that we don’t know which parts of Wayne County have reporter. So maybe there’s a surprise … a bit more of the vote just came in in Wayne and Clinton’s margin has already gone down a bit. I just don’t see this happening for her. Possible. But requires heroic margins at this point.