Marco Rubio came in third place in Iowa, which by most objective measures is just holding on coming out of the first caucus. But of course it’s never that simple. His campaign seemed all but dead and he significantly out-performed expectations. And along the way uber-winner-alpha-lion Donald Trump took a big gut punch. So Rubio becomes the great shiny hope for business and establishment Republicans nationwide. The constrained choice of Trump and Cruz is a choice of catastrophes for Republicans. Rubio is a path to a plausible national nominee. So the Empire is really, really striking back hard now. It has a horse to ride. On the other hand you have a few other folks who aren’t quite ready to join in. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie. Maybe even Jeb Bush, weak as he may be.
Christie this morning dubbed Rubio “the boy in the bubble.” And I think that’s a dig that may have resonance. It captures how Rubio is produced, protected and – truth be told – a tad delicate. Can he really take a political punch when he’s the center of attention? I’m not sure.
He’s also young. Not too young to be president by any means. I think he would be two years younger than Obama was at his first inauguration. But he seems young. That can either be all the attractions our culture attaches to youth or it can be green and untested. My own personal sense is that one of Rubio’s greatest vulnerabilities is the way he seems soft and delicate.
The other key thing about Rubio is that, remember, no issue has been more salient or persistent in this campaign on the GOP side than immigration – deporting millions of people, building the Trump MaWall, banning Muslim refugees, banning Muslim immigrants. The onrush of THEM has been the hotwire of the whole campaign. And it resonates with all the fear and resentment now coursing through the Republican party.
But Rubio is easily (and accurately) portrayed as a total immigration phony. After the 2012 election, he embraced the GOP’s post-election ‘autopsy’ report and branded himself as the new generation Republican who would deliver his party for comprehensive immigration reform. In so doing, he and many in the party hoped, he would at least blunt the party’s deeply damaged relationship with the country’s rapidly growing Hispanic minority.
Of course, the whole effort failed miserably. Rubio was totally unable to deliver and as he failed he completely changed his position. Now he explains the change by ISIS or times change. Or some other such nonsense.
It is a tough proposition for Rubio to win the Republican nomination when only two years ago he fully embraced what all the energy in this year’s ‘anti-establishment’ GOP primary race has been against. But it’s not impossible. 2012 was the GOP’s anti-Obamacare election and they nominated the guy who basically invented Obamacare! That said Rubio is in the cage with players altogether more vicious and focused than the ones Romney ever faced. And they have money and ideological constituencies to keep them in the race. The next week will tell us a lot.
