The conventional wisdom is that you don’t really know the impact of the conventions until everything settles out a week or two after the second convention. We’re coming up on that threshold. And as you can see from the trend chart going back to July 1st, this is no longer just a bounce.
At the risk of stating the obvious, a bounce is something that goes up and then comes down, at least part of the way back down. But Clinton’s trend line continues to rise.
Here’s the key thing to keep in mind.
Historically, once the tumult of the conventions has settled, the polls tend to be fairly stable. There’s sometimes a closing toward the end. Gore caught up with Bush at the end of the 2000 race. But again, people seem to make basic decisions during the conventions and they’re usually hard to dislodge. That seems especially the case when the margin is substantial.
We’re coming up on that period for Trump.
