I think longtime TPM Reader JB has a lot of this right on the real context of the Iranian nukes deal …
I think the deal with Iran should be interpreted through the lens of the decreasing reliance of the United States on oil from the Middle East. The vast quantities of natural gas and oil in in North America that will permit nearly all of our energy needs to be met at home and allow the significant control of price and supply to be exerted close to home changes importantly our reliance on and control of the world energy market. I think this deal represents the first step of US disentanglement from the machinations of Middle Eastern politics and background control of much of what goes on. Here is my assessment of what is happening, by nation:
United States: We are not as much reliant on middle east oil because of our own stocks and increasing renewables so let’s remove any existential threats from the region so we can be less involved. The major existential threat? Nuclear weapons. With no Iran nukes, there is no regional nuclear arms race. So, we don’t have to police the area nearly as much because we have oil, prices of oil will drop with return of Iranian stocks, and there are no existential threats. We’re just not that into you anymore.
Israel: They are having a hissy fit. Why? As the best and most trusted partner in an area that required the most attention over the last century, their ultimate security has been guaranteed by nukes, their military, their economy, and the iron-clad US backing. If the middle east no longer needs the same attention, then this is one step of the US moving toward a more normal relationship, or less secure than now. I see the reaction of Netanyahu like someone in a relationship trying to get the same love and attention as before, but now even the hissy fits (coming to Congress) aren’t eliciting a big response. They know the “its not you it’s me” is coming.
Gulf states not Saudi Arabia: Not very happy but they stand to make money with the restitution of Iran trade and oil, so they are being bought off to the new environment. Ok, we will take the money if not the hugs.
Saudi Arabia: In a way, they feel the same as Israel. They are acting out by trying to show that they still control the world’s oil by selling it so cheap that they are driving out of business some of the wildcatters here in the US, but they are hurting themselves too by significantly reducing their profits, which is ultimately the way they exert control—buying people off. So, as Israel is becoming histrionic, Saudia Arabia is cutting itself to try and get more attention. (One can make the argument they are fighting in school, with the conflict in Yemen, but the point is the same).
Iran: Ok, we get the message, if we don’t get nukes, we can be a regional power and you won’t bother us as much. Got it.
Syria (Assad): Yea, our backer just won, yea!
Jordan: Damn it, less US, more war, more refugees, more headaches for me.
I see the nuclear deal as the first step in the new world of less reliance on oil. As always, its the oil.
There are definitely points I’d quibble with. But specially with Saudi Arabia, I think this hits a key element of what is going on. The Saudis don’t like this for exactly the reasons Americans elected Obama (or at least a major part of it): less U.S. hyper-focus on the Middle East and fewer wars and confrontation in the region.
