Day after day we get emails from readers who are convinced that Donald Trump doesn’t really want to be the nominee and is looking for a way to get out of the race. RCP’s Carl Cannon says Trump actually does want to lose, though he seems to be talking more about subconscious wish fulfillment than an actual plan to throw the election. Or perhaps he’s prepping to get out at some critical moment and hand the nomination over to some more electable candidate. Or perhaps – though much less over the last 48 hours – we hear from commentators that Trump is still getting ready to pivot to the general election.
These all seem rooted in collective denial because the United States has little historical experience, certainly not in living memory, of a major party nominee who is a mentally unstable narcissist, someone who is capable of almost anything but impulse control. Trump isn’t just someone who speaks out of turn, runs an intuition based campaign or isn’t politically correct. There’s something much, much darker about him. As happens with many would be demagogues or authoritarian rulers the prospect of real power isn’t steadying him. We’re seeing no process – either instigated by the candidate or by those around him – to bottle the magic, build some campaign structure around him to stabilize the campaign and make it more sustainable. On the contrary, as happens with demagogues and violent authoritarians, proximity to power is making him more unbridled, hotter and less restrained.
Now, there have been very unlovely presidential candidates and even presidents. Some were bellicose, others who had real demons who affected the course of their presidencies. But they were all different. In part, their personalities were different. But just as much they were different because they were conventional politicians who had people around them to curb their worst tendencies. Part of being ‘different’ was having the self-awareness, mental stability, maturity to be responsive, at least some level, to the counsel of those around them. Trump has none of that.
I will add that I too think there’s a scenario where Trump abandons the race, just not now. By September and October, if Trump is looking at the prospect of a shattering defeat, one that brings down much of the Republican party around him, I think it’s quite possible he manufacturers some excuse to drop out of the race to avoid that level of public humiliation. My best guess would be some argument that system is ‘rigged’ against him or the GOP hasn’t supported him enough. I’m not saying that electoral scenario is likely but I think it’s definitely possible. But if it happens, I think a Trump bailout could definitely be in the cards. Not likely. Definitely possible.
