Conspiracy theories have become an inescapable part of American politics. I’ll talk to TPM contributing writer Mike Rothschild about his work as a researcher on conspiracy theories and how they spread, why some conspiracies endure, and what happens when fringe ideas are legitimized by some of the most powerful people on earth. 

Join us at 1 pm ET on Substack Live.

First, just because Donald Trump is an inveterate liar, don’t assume that Iran is a reliable narrator about anything that was agreed to in this deal. (Was there a deal? We’ll get to that.) One thing both sides explicitly agree on, coming right from President Trump himself, is that the 10 point Iranian plan will serve as the basis for discussions over the next two weeks. The early accounts of what that document included focused on a lot things Iran wants, even including things it wanted before the war broke out. It doesn’t really focus on the things the U.S. notionally got into this war for. (We’ll get in a moment to what’s included in the document Iran released today.) For the U.S., this ceasefire is at best a ceasefire on the basis of a stalemate, where the fight is about a draw and both sides want to see if they can bring the fight to an end.

That’s the optimistic view. The U.S. has clearly been more eager to get to the negotiating table. It’s the U.S. that wants out most. The items on that list tilt heavily toward Iran. The Iranians appear to be exercising continued control of the Strait of Hormuz even if they may allow ships to go through — “allow” being the key word.

One of Trump’s Truthed conditions for a ceasefire was the “SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” The White House appeared ready to declare that condition met. But even this morning, before reports emerged that Iran was once again closing the strait, there was some fine print.