I wanted to flag two articles to your attention, one from the Post and the other from CNN. They both cover similar ground but in different ways. The gist is that the Trump campaign has essentially given up on trying to improve voters’ impression of Donald Trump and decided the only path to victory is driving down Harris’ favorability numbers. When I first read the Post piece, it had the feel of what journalists call a “source greaser” — a favorable piece aimed at generating good will on the part of the subject and sources of the piece. The quote from GOP consultant Josh Holmes captures the tone of the piece: “I think it’s a serious paper tiger we’re dealing with here. I don’t think for 60 days they can keep the train on the tracks.”

We’re all destined for a couple months watching horse-race polls because many of us simply can’t help ourselves. (What is it? A desire for information? Managing anxiety? A questing play for agency over the contingent and unknown?) But I want to go back to something I mentioned a week or two ago: Kamala Harris’s favorability numbers, apart from the horse race. Those have now gone from a deficit of negative 17.4 percentage points on July 4th to .9 net negative percentage points today. (I’m using 538’s composite average just because I find that one easy to find and navigable.) As I mentioned in that earlier post, that kind of movement is, as far as I know, more or less unprecedented. You simply don’t get more popular these days. Not like that. Undulations, sure. But generally you get less popular over time, not more.

To follow up on the post below, I’m not sure I agree with what seems like the relative pessimism, if I’m reading it right. But look what TPM Reader JL says about the saturation bombing of mailers. I at least read this a bit differently. It sounds like they’re sending these things out indiscriminately to people who are solid Democratic partisans.

I have to remind people sometimes I’m almost never sending a message with the reader emails I post or signaling agreement. The the ones I post are not necessarily representative either. That applies to AB’s email from yesterday. I do think Pennsylvania is going to be an epic battle. But I’m more optimistic. Here’s another note from TPM Reader TH …

From TPM Reader AB …

About Pennsylvania.

Like you, I think Pennsylvania will be key to the election, and I am not sure how it will go. I live in Western PA coal country, and a number of people have noted fewer Trump signs. That is true, but I think a lot of the non-sign people will still vote for Trump. A grudging vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one. I also don’t think there is anything Harris can do to win them over. What they really like about Trump is his sense of grievance, and his whining. They don’t want policies to bring back the golden days when coal miners all had a gold plated Rolls Royce.