I wrote a few days ago that Ron DeSantis’s long campaign collapse was likely the most ignominious and vertiginous in the presidential primary era, which dates in stages from the 1960s and early 1970s. Some skeptics pointed to Jeb! in 2016 or Rudy Giuliani in 2008. But on a closer inspection neither flameout measures up to Ron’s. As evidenced by his legendary “Please clap” mix of exhortation and lament, Jeb! had an uncanny degree of self-awareness about the impending collapse of his succession plans that would cheat him of the prize. Giuliani had the political press in his hands. But his attempt to corner the 9/11 market was never enough to overcome his heterodoxy on issues like gay rights or serial-philandering in an earlier version of the Republican Party where those things mattered. His strategy of sitting out the early primaries and waiting until Florida, while a nice foreshadowing of Florida’s future as the home of Trumpism, was always correctly identified as a way to post-date the end of his campaign. Even the 9/11 brand was too long in the tooth by 2007. Joe Biden was able to make him a punch line with his famous one-liner.

The truth though is that DeSantis never had a chance. His humiliation was preordained and basically certain. Professional Republicans were at least a bit soured on Trump after the 2022 election, which seemed to make clear what 2018 and 2020 had strongly suggested: that Trump is an electoral loser. For professional Republicans there’s a bit more to it though. They’re completely down with Trump and Trumpism, as the last seven years have shown clearly enough. But they’re always going to have an eye out to move on. Part of what it means to be a political professional is to have a wandering eye for the new political horse, the new candidate, the new rising star, which is the usual path to professional advancement. More generously, it’s why you get into political work in the first place.

A Republican Party ruled by Donald Trump is one in which true advancement and greatness is always stymied and, to the extent it exists, always subject to his whims.

Dean Phillips now warming to running on the “No Labels” line in 2024.

You’ve likely seen there’s now a dispute over what was said in President Biden’s and Prime Minister Netanyahu latest phone call. Unnamed senior administration officials say Netanyahu made clear he’s not necessarily opposed to the creation of a Palestinian state, despite having categorically ruled it out a day before. After those comments from the White House Netanyahu’s office put out a new statement insisting he said no such thing.

This is quite significant but not because of the specifics of what was said or potential support for a two-state solution. Opposition to a Palestinian state is the most consistent and defining element of Netanyahu’s career in politics going back four decades. Given what a schemer he is, though, I think it’s likely he did say some version of this in the call with Biden. But the real issue here is that saying this publicly is something the White House knew would immediately cause Netanyahu trouble with members of his coalition. He would have to respond and deny it. This is best seen as the White House signaling its done with Netanyahu or at least moving toward a more adversarial stance toward his government.

I’m not saying we’re in the process of some big dramatic break. But the consequences of doing this were and are obvious. So best seen in that context.

This is mainly just a goof on Ron DeSantis’s ridiculous presidential campaign. But it’s weird and funny enough that I thought I’d share it with you. Clearly Ron DeSantis’s campaign is flatlining about to go down in the history books as one of the most ignominious and vertiginous collapses in presidential primary campaign history. But TPM Reader RS just let me know that despite filing in a lot of other state’s he’ll never get to, DeSantis’s campaign somehow forgot to file paperwork to be a candidate in the New York State Republican primary.

It’s been clear for some weeks that there is growing division in the Israeli war cabinet. Now it appears to be breaking into the open, with indications that a new election could come sooner than later.

First a bit of stage-setting and context to explain the moving pieces and what this all might or might not mean.

On October 7th, the day of the Hamas massacres in southern Israel, Israel was led by a narrow and very right-wing coalition government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel had been embroiled for most of the previous year in a highly polarized fight over the government’s effort to dramatically curtail the power of the country’s Supreme Court. The massacres shattered the public’s confidence in Netanyahu, which had kept him in power since 2009 with only one intermission in 2021 and 2022. Soon after the outbreak of the current war, Netanyahu was able to bring one of the two main opposition parties, National Union, into his government.