Everyone was rightly shocked at how rapidly events unfolded yesterday. We’re now getting the first signs that the degree of fracture and the centrifugal forces unleashed by McCarthy’s ouster may be more chaotic and protracted in their impact than most first imagined.

Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman said this afternoon that no one in the GOP caucus thinks a new Speaker will actually be elected by next Wednesday, when the election has at least tentatively been scheduled. A look at the news suggests why. At least one House Republican has announced that he will not support any candidate who doesn’t require that the 1 vote motion to vacate rule be changed. Many more are demanding a change without yet making it a categorical demand, though seems like just a matter of time. Marjorie Greene says she will not support any Speaker who supports more Ukraine aid. Meanwhile it’s almost impossible to imagine that Matt Gaetz and his crew would give up this power over any future Speaker. Why would they? The current crisis can’t be ended without their votes.

Do Matt Gaetz and his confederates agree to give up their 1 vote motion to vacate rule for the new Speaker? Hard to imagine. Why would they? On the other hand, what potential Speaker would possibley consent to enter the office on the basis of Kevin McCarthy’s fatal mistake?

I can think of two: Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan. But seriously, how do you figure that’s resolved?

Remember too that we’re little more than a month from a replay of the shutdown countdown and at some point a vote to impeach President Biden. So new moments to break a Speakership are thick on the horizon.

We now have two official candidates to succeed Kevin McCarthy: Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan. It seems unlikely we’ll get another candidate, at least another with a real shot at winning.

Despite the fact that Jordan is from the Freedom Caucus and Scalise was in effect McCarthy’s deputy, Jordan is a McCarthy ally. From the outside, we tend to see the House in ideological or partisan terms. But there are factions and alliances that transcend those divisions. Indeed a leader’s faction almost by definition has to span the ideological breadth of the caucus. That’s the only way to win a leadership election. In many ways, this succession fight is between Team Scalise and Team McCarthy, with Jordan being the nominee of Team McCarthy.

TPM Reader PT says Dems should have propped McCarthy up. On balance, I don’t agree. But he makes a good argument.

I realize this is contrary to conventional wisdom, and your own analysis of the situation, but if I had been running the House Democratic Caucus I would have provided Kevin McCarthy with votes to keep the Speakership. My thinking is the following:

First: The fact that Kevin McCarthy was ousted with the motion to vacate was not a huge surprise. The huge surprise was that within less than two hours of the vote he threw in the towel and effectively ended not only his Speakership but his political career. It’s still not clear to me whether he had key conversations during that short interlude that told him it was hopeless or that, at a basic level, he simply didn’t have the fight in him. By all accounts it was a total stunner for basically everyone in the Tuesday evening conference meeting.

Here is the chain of events as I understand them. Yesterday Matt Gaetz filed his motion to vacate. Last night then-Speaker McCarthy challenged Gaetz on Twitter to “bring it on.” Today McCarthy decided to hold the vote at the first opportunity rather than wait. It quickly became apparent McCarthy would lose the vote. He did lose the vote. Then a few hours later he told his caucus that he wouldn’t be running to get the job back. He was out for good.

His colleagues were apparently stunned by the announcement. His allies were prepping for a grueling fight to regain the Speakership. The length of time between McCarthy’s ouster and his announcement was roughly two hours. That’s enough time to have a few conversations and get the impression it’s too high a hill. But just barely. It’s hard to look at these facts and not conclude that McCarthy simply didn’t have the fight in him.