The latest news suggests that Kevin McCarthy simply does not have the votes to survive today’s challenge from Matt Gaetz. In other words, he’ll lose both the first procedural vote (pretty much a foregone conclusion) and the big vote that actually removes him as Speaker. So it looks highly likely that McCarthy will be out as Speaker today. But as we’ve said, that doesn’t end the story. They still have to elect a new Speaker.

A TPM Reader asked me last night how much of this is shaking out in the way it is because Donald Trump is distracted by his trials and thus not getting involved. My initial response was that it might be playing some role. But I figured the much bigger driver is the fact that unlike his own power, his own freedom and his own money, who runs the House Republican caucus just doesn’t affect him that much. What we know about Donald Trump is that if there’s nothing in it for him he basically doesn’t care. That’s got to be a big part of it. But as today has played out I wonder whether this may be having a bigger impact than I thought.

The different parties are lining up on this Speakership showdown. House Democrats position appears unanimous and categorical. No help for McCarthy whatsoever. Every member of the caucus will vote to oust McCarthy.

A couple points.

The insider newsletters are out with updates and vote counts on Matt Gaetz’s motion to vacate. The more detailed one is Punchbowl. It has Gaetz already holding four votes including his own to oust McCarthy. Three more lean toward ouster and another five are considering it. On its face this isn’t great for McCarthy. Gaetz needs just one more vote to oust McCarthy if every member is in attendance – a non-trivial if.

There’s a lot of discussion now about whether Democrats should directly or indirectly bail out Kevin McCarthy. Many reports say it will be necessary. I thought I should add that nothing I’ve written about this topic in recent days should give the impression that anyone should be rooting for McCarthy over the Freedom Caucus. There are no good guys in this story. But some are more ridiculous than others. Matt Gaetz for one.

A few thoughts on this clown show.

First: Let’s not forget how we got here.