As you can see we’re looking closely at the efforts unfolding around the country to bar Donald Trump from appearing on the 2024 ballot because of his role fomenting and leading an insurrection against the United States government. It’s hardly a crazy idea since Trump did plot to overthrow the constitutional order, i.e., the government of the United States and there’s clear language about this in the US constitution. But I’d like to go on the record suggesting people not get too wrapped up in this morsel of anti-Trump activism as a or the thing that’s going to drive the outcome of this election. We are covering it not rooting for it. At the end of the day, this election is going to come down to whether Democrats can sustain an anti-Trump coalition in the electoral college just like they did in 2020. There’s simply no administrative or courtroom shortcut around that necessity. My own view of this whole issue is one of what I would call benign disinterest.

What do I mean by this? Let’s start with the practicalities. The most probable outcome here is that Trump will be removed from the ballot in blue states he had no shot at winning in the first place. (The Supreme Court probably torpedoes that too for reasons we’ll return to in a moment.) In that case, anti-Trump voters will get some emotional satisfaction and Trump supporters will gain a ripe and succulent new grievance. But it won’t change any reality about the outcome of the race.

I went into some detail in the latest episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast on my thoughts on efforts to bar Trump from appearing on the 2024 presidential ballot. My general view remains one of well-wishing disinterest. The 2024 election is going to be decided not by eligibility challenges but by results of the election as mediated by the electoral college. But I found this perspective from TPM Reader JS very interesting.

There really is no good legal argument against Trump being disqualified by the 14th Amendment. He’s not eligible under it. But as you argued there’s more to it. I also think the “law” is pretty clear on the platinum coin, but it was the economists who said it wouldn’t actually solve the problem. Here I just think the Supremes will bullshit their way through it, like you said.

By virtue of having been a JAG in a dual state/federal setup like the National Guard makes all of the insurrection stuff something you deal with more routinely. Think sending in the 101st to integrate Little Rock. That was—had to be—an “insurrection” or else it would have been the Arkansas National Guard because of posse comitatus.

This is a fascinating and deeply weird story just out from Politico about a little known character in the broader Trump coup story, a woman named Katherine Friess, who up until a bit more than a decade ago had a fairly conventional career in Republican politics. She’s a lawyer, or was a lawyer. (She claimed to practice law in Colorado but her license in the state is inactive.) She worked on Capitol Hill. Then she worked as a lobbyist for longtime GOP operative and lobbyist Charlie Black. Most people who knew her from those years — Black, former Sen. Larry Pressler (R) — had lost track of her. But somehow she pops up as a consultant working for Rudy Giuliani trying to overturn Trump’s 2020 defeat.

This USA Today article about McConnell’s health issues is a good reminder that Rand Paul is unquestionably one of the biggest a&$holes in American politics in a way that entirely transcends politics or ideology. As Thomas Hobbes might have put it, the guy is nasty, brutish and short. But the article slips in this subtly devastating comment about Sen. Josh Hawley’s concerns about McConnell’s episodes. Hawley, the paper notes, “hopes the minority leader’s health is not a distraction for Republicans ahead of the 2024 elections, adding that the episodes make it difficult to criticize Biden for his age.”

That about captures the consequence of this issue.

With the comedy and politics out of the way, let me share a few thoughts about McConnell’s health issues themselves.

Because Twitter is no longer a publicly traded company with a public stock price there’s no straightforward way to assess its current value. But most market analysts estimate the company is now worth no more than a third of the $44 billion Musk paid for it a year ago. To be fair, Musk clearly overpaid for the company. He paid a premium over the company’s current stock price and even that price was probably inflated. But there’s no question Musk’s erratic and destructive reign has dramatically damaged the company, torching its public reputation and leading to a catastrophic decline in ad revenues which Musk and independent press reports have pegged at between 50% and 60%.

But Musk has found a new scapegoat: the Jews. Or rather, the Anti-Defamation League, the American Jewish community’s largest and oldest organization dedicated to fighting not only anti-Semitism but all forms of racial and religious bigotry and other forms of discrimination. But I suspect the “rather” or the distinction in general might be lost on Musk’s 155 million Twitter followers. Over the past several days Musk has gone on a tear claiming that the catastrophic decline in his company’s value since he purchased it is mostly or entirely the fault of the ADL and churning up Twitter debates that at least big time anti-Semitic accounts think is clearly boosting their cause.

We have another pretty sobering general election poll out. This one is from the Journal. Toplines are 46% to 46% horse race number, widespread misgivings about Biden’s age. In general, as you’d expect, Trump’s supporters and potential supporters are basically 100% united behind him whereas Biden’s are far less so. Among the poll respondents actually interviewed for the article are two independents who voted for Biden in 2020 to get Trump out of office. One is considering writing someone else’s name in; another is considering voting for Cornell West.

Where to start? Dan Friedman and David Corn have a piece up this morning at Mother Jones detailing a whistleblower complaint from an FBI agent, Johnathan Buma, who says he was stopped from investigating whether Giuliani was “compromised” by Russian intelligence when he was on his various “dirt” safaris marching through Ukraine and other post-Soviet states trying to drum up dirt on the Bidens to sabotage the 2020 presidential election. Friedman and Corn say other stymied agents may soon be coming forward as well.

This is an interesting development. In a press conference today, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp shot down pretty much all the talk in the state legislature about punishing Fulton County DA Fani Willis for indicting ex-President Trump and his various associates. I think some publications have been overplaying the odds of something like this happening. But far right members of the state legislature have been pushing hard for either removing Willis from office or defunding her office or in other ways punishing her. Rabble rousing Sen. Colton Moore, an antic, Trump-fluffing weirdo basically threatened violence if his demands aren’t heeded. And the AJC reports at least five state senators have told the paper they have received threats from Trump supporters for not heeding Moore’s demands.

Kemp basically shot it all down. No impeaching, no defunding, nothing.

“The bottom line is that in the state of Georgia as long as I’m governor, we’re going to follow the law and the Constitution, regardless of who it helps and harms politically. Over the last few years, some inside and outside of this building may have forgotten that. But I can assure you that I have not.”

This morning Axios leads with an “Exclusive”: “Donors fret over Scott’s single status.” As they look for the best challenger to the supremacy of Donald Trump, top GOP donors have been skittish about ponying up big money for South Carolina Senator Tim Scott because the 57 year old South Carolina Senator is unmarried. Back in May Scott told an on-stage interviewer he had a girlfriend but didn’t name her. The story says that the Scott campaign’s discussion of the issue has been “vague” while making clear that, at least according to one source, even if many donors have concerns it’s definitely not a majority of them.

This is simply an odd story on many levels. It feels a tad archaic to put it mildly. As Scott himself put during that May interview with Axios, “it sounds like we’re living in 1963 and not 2023.”

The Scott campaign says it will be addressing the issue in the coming weeks.

This morning while reading your emails I got this question from TPM Reader EG: “How has your experience of politics in this country over the last six years changed your understanding of this country?  Do you sense a secular before and after that we are transitioning to?”

That’s a very big question and I don’t know what my answer is. But I do have a few observations to share, which maybe are part of an evolving answer.

First a few preliminaries.

Implicit in this question, I think, is one of national decline. Basically, are we moving into a new reality in which things are getting worse, in which the American democratic order is under permanent threat or even on the way out. I don’t think everyone’s a pessimist. But it’s hard for me to imagine many people asking this particular question in the present national context and meaning, “Don’t we seem to be entering a new age in which everything or most things will be more awesome than they were previously?”