Third Pollster Shows Big Shift In NH Governor’s Race

New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan listens to panel discussion on “education and workforce: growing school leaders and teachers” at the National Governors Association 2013 Winter Meeting in Washington, Sunday, Feb.... New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan listens to panel discussion on “education and workforce: growing school leaders and teachers” at the National Governors Association 2013 Winter Meeting in Washington, Sunday, Feb. 24, 2013. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta) MORE LESS
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Yet another poll has come out as Election Day nears indicating a potentially closer race than previously imagined for New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan (D).

The final Granite State Poll of the race, released Sunday, showed an 11-point swing in favor of challenger Republican Walt Havenstein. The poll found Hassan leading 47 percent to 43 percent.

A Granite State Poll conducted the week prior had shown Hassan with a 15-point lead. The University of New Hampshire, which conducted the poll, said in a press release that the race was now “too close to call”.

The poll marked the third time in the past two weeks that a pollster has shown a large shift in favor of Havenstein.

In addition to the Granite State Poll, New England College and American Research Group had consistently shown Hassan with a comfortable lead until the past two weeks.

In Hassan’s favor, however, her lead in the latest Granite State Poll was larger than what the others had shown, and it was also outside the margin of error of 3.6 percent.

Additionally, the final poll of the race by New England College, also released Sunday, showed a bounce back in Hassan’s favor. It showed her leading Havenstein by 7.3 percent.

The Granite State Poll was conducted from Oct. 29 through Nov. 2 and surveyed 757 likely voters on landlines and cellphones. The poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and sponsored by WMUR-TV.

The TPM PollTracker average on Monday showed Hassan with a 5.7 percent lead.

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Notable Replies

  1. Avatar for dnl dnl says:

    Poll Dancing causes genital warts…

  2. Question for those data junkies who understand the ins and outs of polling…Is it common to see so many races swing so wildly in favor of one candidate in the closing days of an election despite their being little to have occurred on the campaign trail to justify a sudden shift? I ask because there appears to be quite a few races this cycle where one candidate suddenly picks up a bunch of momentum for what appears to be no apparent reason.

  3. Wild swings almost always indicate lousy polling, unless there’s been a big development in a given race (a big scandal, especially).

    Also, pollsters tend to get nervous about other polls as elections draw near, and will often massage their voter samples to give a result closer to what others are showing. They claim they don’t do that, but they do. (Take Gallup in 2012: they showed Romney up 7 with a couple of days left, then tried to hedge by moving it to Romney +1 on the last day.)

    This all seems to suggest that the previous polling gave Hassan an unrealistically large lead, but that she still leads. Probably, the race has been pretty consistent behind the polling noise. Remember, in 2012 the polls showed constant movement between Obama and Romney… but the Obama camp’s internal polls showed the race almost completely steady throughout, which makes a lot more sense since most voters had their choices locked in.

  4. Boy, if those Free-Livers elect Scott Brown, a retread empty suit from below the border, they are dumber than previously imagined. He’s been blanketing the airwaves with PAC ads that are totally out of tune with moderate New Englanders. The type of thing accusing Shaheen of voting for Obama’s “failed stimulus.” Still, it’s tough to run with the Obama millstone around your neck.

  5. Right. “That 15 point lead from last week became 0 right before election night and too close to call”…also known as “we don’t even trust our own methodology and don’t want to look too wrong when this all shakes out.”

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