Hillary Clinton maintained a steady lead over Donald Trump in the NBC News/Survey Monkey weekly national tracking poll, leading Trump in a two-way race by six points, 50-44.
Clinton’s lead over Trump dropped slightly from last week’s tracking poll, when she led Trump by eight points in a two-way race, 51-43.
When third party candidates are added to the question, Clinton leads Trump by five points in Tuesday’s poll, 46-41, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 7 points and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3 points. In last week’s poll, Clinton led Trump by seven points in a four-way race, 51-44.
TPM’s PollTracker Average shows Clinton leading Trump nationally 50.5-43.
NBC/Survey Monkey surveyed 32,225 likely voters online Oct. 17-23 with a margin of error plus or minus one percentage point.
2 weeks out and the polls don’t seem to be converging yet. They may not this time around.
National polls don’t mean a whole lot unless they collectively show a shift in one or more key voter groups.
Depending on the pollster/analyst, there are about 2-7 states that could go either way. States such as AZ, IA, NC, OH…
Otherwise, individual polls are more like momentary loud noise in a crowd.
Clinton at 50%+ is more important than the margin.
Bbbbbbbuuuuttt…the Nororious R.I.G. and living yam says:
The Upshot poll in NC this morning showing Clinton +7 in the 4 way and +8 in the 2 way is the most significant survey this cycle. The voter file method they use is what campaigns use, including the Clinton campaign. That poll and Clinton’s growth from September mirrors the change in most national polling. Clinton is on her way to painting NC blue. NV has also shifted blue. These online, national polls are fairly irrelevant. Can you imagine if these guys were around in 2012? Romney would’ve been consistently ahead by 3-5 points.