Donald Trump narrowly leads Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in the Iowa Republican contest by a one-point margin, according to an Emerson College Polling Society poll released Monday that showed a drop in support for the billionaire.
The poll showed support for Trump at 27 percent in Iowa, followed by Cruz at 26 percent. In third place, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) took 22 percent. That’s a six-point drop for Trump since the previous Emerson poll released just ten days ago, which showed Trump leading at 33 percent. Cruz, who stood at 23 percent in the previous poll, registered a modest three-point gain. The biggest change has been an apparent surge in support for Rubio, whose support has increased by eight points, up from 14 percent.
Those results come after a series of dramatic clashes between Republican presidential candidates in Iowa, including an intense rhetorical duel between Cruz and Trump over Trump’s refusal to attend the most recent GOP debate. The Emerson poll contradicts the trend of most Iowa polling in the second half of January, which showed Trump settling into a comfortable lead in the Hawkeye State. Rubio’s sudden ascent also differs from most recent polls that have suggested the Iowa caucuses would be a two-man race between Cruz and Trump.
The Emerson poll was carried out from Jan. 29-31 by automated phone calls. The polling sample consisted of 298 likely Republican caucusgoers, with a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points.
