Dems Aim To Move Voting Rights Bill Forward Next Week As Reconciliation Takes Center Stage

While reconciliation, the debt ceiling and a looming government shutdown suck all the oxygen out of the Senate chamber, a small group of Democrats continues trying to forge a path for their voting rights bill to become law. 

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) told TPM that they plan to vote on a motion to proceed to the bill next week. 

“We are engaging in discussions with Republicans to see whether we can get some but once that vote is taken, you know, then we can start to talk about next steps,” he said. 

The Freedom to Vote Act was introduced last week, a revamped version of Democrats’ previous voting legislation tweaked to satisfy Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). He had qualms with its predecessor, the For the People Act, and Democrats see a united front as necessary to pushing the next issue — eliminating the filibuster, or at least carving out a voting rights exception, to actually get it passed. 

The days since the bill’s unveiling have been devoted to giving Manchin time to win over 10 Republican votes for the bill — something that he insists, despite all available evidence, is possible. 

The bill’s cosponsors have indulged him, knowing that any chance of Manchin changing his mind on the filibuster starts with an inability to recruit 10 Republicans to the cause — an outcome, the theory goes, that would demonstrate the necessity to Manchin of Democrats going it alone on the legislation. The cosponsors have even participated in some of the conversations with Republicans. 

“We just met yesterday and Senator Manchin is continuing to seek out Republicans and meeting with them — I’ve talked to a few of them,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) told TPM Thursday. “Our focus was always to give him that time to talk to Republicans with help from some of us, and after that, we’ll go from there.”

Unsurprisingly, the conversations have not borne fruit. 

Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) told TPM that while he’s tried, he has “yet to get a yes — a lot of talk, no action.” 

“I’ve had some really good candid discussions with people who I would rank within that caucus as more likely to support it, but I’ve not yet had success,” Kaine said. 

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) said that he’s “talking to everyone he can.” As TPM asked if he’d had any success in that endeavor while the elevator grilles in the Senate basement slid close, he smiled and shrugged. 

The vast majority of the Democratic caucus and advocates alike have long hoped that a war of attrition-style approach would sway Manchin and fellow filibuster disciple Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) into changing their stance on the Senate rule. Both profess to be invested in voting rights legislation, so it’s become the tip of the anti-filibuster spear. 

But as the months dragged on with no discernible change in their positions, the anti-filibuster contingent became panicky. Many are calling on President Joe Biden to get involved, the last untapped resource in changing the senators’ minds. 

Kaine admitted that Democrats considered wrapping voting rights legislation into the sweeping reconciliation package, which would have let them sidestep the filibuster and avoid the need to recruit the mythical cooperative Republicans. 

“We looked at it when we were writing the [budget] instruction,” Kaine sighed. “But we thought it’d be really hard to do.”    

Jan. 6 Committee To Top Trump Cronies: Spill The Beans!

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things.

Getting Right To It

The House Jan. 6 select committee struck directly into the core of Trumpland yesterday with its first blast of subpoenas demanding documents and witness testimony from:

  • Ex-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows
  • Ex-senior White House adviser Steve Bannon
  • Dan Scavino, who’s long served as Trump’s social media chief
  • Kash Patel, a former Devin Nunes aide who became acting chief of staff to the defense secretary in the final weeks of Trump’s presidency

In letters to each of the four men released Thursday evening by the committee:

  • The committee gave the men two weeks to send in the requested documents.
  • Bannon and Patel were ordered to appear in front of the committee for depositions on Oct. 14, followed by depositions from Meadows and Scavino the next day.

Naturally Trump was enraged by the “Harassment Subpoenas,” and swore via his Save America PAC he would fight them “on Executive Privilege and other grounds.”

  • The ex-president accused the committee of issuing the subpoenas to distract from the findings of the Arizona GOP’s fake 2020 election audit, which were slated to be released today.
  • Trump declared that the committee’s alleged scheme wouldn’t work because “everybody will be watching Arizona tomorrow to see what the highly respected auditors and Arizona State Senate found out regarding the so-called Election!”

Arizona Phony Election Auditors And State Senate Find Out Biden Won The Election

The clownish hand recount of the Maricopa County 2020 election results led by Cyber Ninjas, the pro-Trump tech firm that state GOP senators contracted for the bogus “audit,” failed to find anything that would magically flip Arizona to Trump.

  • In fact, the recount found that Trump lost by an even wider margin than the county’s certified results showed, which was 45,109 votes. He actually lost by 45,469 fewer votes than Biden if the “highly respected auditors” are to be believed.
  • The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors responded with a “Yeah, duh.” 
    • Board chair Jack Sellers asserted in a statement that the findings “should be the end of the story” and “everything else is just noise.”
    • Sellers predicted that it won’t be the end for Trump’s allies, though. “We will be accused once again of not cooperating, failing to fill holes in the knowledge of the Senate’s chosen contractor,” he said.

Biden’s Leaning Toward Releasing Info On Trump And Jan. 6

In its crucial deliberations over whether to give the House Jan. 6 investigation committee information on what Trump and his cronies were up to on the day of the Capitol insurrection, the White House is bending toward “yes,” unnamed sources told the Washington Post.

  • Biden “supports a thorough investigation” into the attack and is “deeply committed to ensuring” there won’t be another, Biden spokesperson Michael Gwin said.
  • Though Trump’s predictably raised hell over the committee’s sweeping information request to the National Archives, Biden ultimately has the authority to hand over the documents. Trump’s only option would be to take the fight to court, according to the Post.

People Who Got Their COVID-19 News From Trump Early In The Pandemic Are Way Less Likely To Be Vaccinated

Those who relied on the ex-president and his task force for updates on COVID-19 in April 2020 are among the least likely to have gotten the vaccine, according to a very surprising Pew poll.

  • Another baffling finding: 83 percent of the Americans who listened to Trump’s brainworms gurgle about the pandemic were white.

Must-Read

“What It’s Like at Rikers, According to People Who Just Got Out” – Curbed

Grassley’s Running For Reelection

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), 88, the Senate’s longest-serving Republican, announced with a GIF at 4 a.m. local time that he wasn’t retiring ahead of the 2022 midterms:

Reporting Live From Fox Studios

Okay but that look is actually kind of a serve. Where can I get that dress?

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A Democrat Only Republicans Can Love

I saw a few people questioning the Data for Progress poll I which I used as the basis for yesterday’s post about Kyrsten Sinema cratering at home among Democrats. So I decided to dig into some other polling data. Data for Progress is a progressive-aligned organization, as the name suggests. And some skepticism is always warranted when the pollster is in some way an interested party. But Data for Progress is a respected outfit. And my review of data from other pollsters over the last year bears that out. Their numbers are consistent with what other pollsters have found. But there were some more details that helped fill out the picture.

Back in March (March 8th-12th) an Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll found a similar picture to what we discussed yesterday. Sinema had very anemic support among Democrats – just 50% favorability – and she wasn’t doing well with independents either. Just 36% of independents viewed her favorably. This came just after Sinema had declared her support for the filibuster and helped tank a minimum wage increase. (Favorability is different from approval. This poll only had the former. But for these purposes it’s a close enough approximation.)

Continue reading “A Democrat Only Republicans Can Love”

Biden Plays Referee As Centrist Dems Threaten To Scuttle Reconciliation

President Joe Biden met with the moderate and progressive factions of his party on Wednesday in an attempt to settle the tensions between the two camps. Demands by a handful of centrists in the House and Senate have threatened to torpedo the $3.5 trillion reconciliation plan that is core to the president’s agenda.

Democrats told Politico that the discussions didn’t end the stalemate, but they were at least a positive step.

“The first step was to convene all of us, and get us to start acting like grown-ups again,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) said. “The next step is to develop a procedural pathway, and the final step is to negotiate all of the substance.”

Follow our live coverage below.

Biden Ordered Agencies To Help People Vote. But How Much Can Feds Do To Fill In The Gaps?

As legislative efforts to expand voting rights hit the brick wall of the filibuster in the Senate, and as conservative courts across the country side with state Republicans’ novel restrictions on the franchise, the third branch of government is preparing to fill in the gaps where it can. And for members of Joe Biden’s Cabinet, homework is due.

Continue reading “Biden Ordered Agencies To Help People Vote. But How Much Can Feds Do To Fill In The Gaps?”

Big Tent Wrangling

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Josh and Kate discuss the debt ceiling, impending government shutdown and fate of the two-track infrastructure plan.

Watch below and email us your questions for next week’s episode.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

Bannon Admits He Advised Trump To Plan ‘Reckoning’ On Jan. 6 That Would Kill Biden Presidency ‘In The Crib’

With glee, former Trump campaign chairman Steve Bannon confirmed on Wednesday that he helped former President Trump plan the Jan. 6 insurrection as part of an effort to “kill the Biden presidency in the crib.”

Continue reading “Bannon Admits He Advised Trump To Plan ‘Reckoning’ On Jan. 6 That Would Kill Biden Presidency ‘In The Crib’”

21 Million Americans Say Biden Is ‘Illegitimate’ And Trump Should Be Restored By Violence, Survey Finds

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It first appeared at The Conversation.

A recent Washington demonstration supporting those charged with crimes for the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol fizzled, with no more than 200 demonstrators showing up. The organizers had promised 700 people would turn out – or more.

But the threat from far-right insurrectionists is not over.

For months, my colleagues and I at the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats have been tracking insurrectionist sentiments in U.S. adults, most recently in surveys in June. We have found that 47 million American adults – nearly 1 in 5 – agree with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.” Of those, 21 million also agree that “use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.”

Our survey found that many of these 21 million people with insurrectionist sentiments have the capacity for violent mobilization. At least 7 million of them already own a gun, and at least 3 million have served in the U.S. military and so have lethal skills. Of those 21 million, 6 million said they supported right-wing militias and extremist groups, and 1 million said they are themselves or personally know a member of such a group, including the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys.

Only a small percentage of people who hold extremist views ever actually commit acts of violence, but our findings reveal how many Americans hold views that could turn them toward insurrection.

A solid survey

In June 2021, our group commissioned a survey done by the independent, non-partisan researchers at NORC at the University of Chicago, seeking to discover how widespread insurrectionist sentiments are among U.S. adults.

The research methods meet the highest standards in the polling industry – a random sample of a representative sample. It’s the same process NORC uses to conduct polling for The Associated Press, the federal government and other major institutions.

First, NORC pulls together a panel of 40,000 people, called AmeriSpeak, who are representative of the entire U.S. population on dozens of characteristics, such as age, race, income, location of residence and religion. From that representative sample, NORC drew a random sample – in our case, 1,070 people.

Extreme beliefs

This polling found that 9% of American adults say they agree with the statement that “Use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.” And 25% of adults either strongly or somewhat agree with the statement that “The 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.”

Overall, 8% of the survey participants share both of those views.

The margin of error of this survey was plus or minus 4 percentage points. So when calculating the number of the 258 million adult Americans who hold these views, we looked at the range of between 4% and 12% – which gave us between 10 million and 31 million. The best single figure is the middle of that range, 21 million.

People who said force is justified to restore Trump were consistent in their insurrectionist sentiments: Of them, 90% also see Biden as illegitimate, and 68% also think force may be needed to preserve America’s traditional way of life.

The fringe moving into the mainstream

Combined with their military experience, gun ownership and connections to extremist groups and militias, this signals the existence of significant mainstream support in America for a violent insurrection.

This group of 21 million who agree both that force is justified to restore Trump and that Biden is an illegitimate president has two additional views that are also on the fringes of mainstream society:

Some people with insurrectionist sentiments hold one of these political views but not the other, suggesting there are multiple ways of thinking that lead a person toward the insurrectionist movement.

Broader support

This latest research reinforces our previous findings, that the Jan. 6 insurrection represents a far more mainstream movement than earlier instances of right-wing extremism across the country. Those events, mostly limited to white supremacist and militia groups, saw more than 100 individuals arrested from 2015 to 2020. But just 14% of those arrested for their actions on Jan. 6 are members of those groups. More than half are business owners or middle-aged white-collar professionals, and only 7% are unemployed.

There is no way to say for sure when – or even whether – these insurrectionists will take action. On Jan. 6, it took clear direction from Donald Trump and other political leaders to turn these dangerous sentiments into a violent reality. But the movement itself is larger and more complex than many people might like to think.

 


Robert A. Pape is a professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

FreedomWorks Staffer Faces Charges In Jan. 6 Capitol Attack

A staffer for the right-wing group FreedomWorks was arrested last week and charged for his alleged involvement in the Capitol attack, court documents unsealed Thursday show. 

Continue reading “FreedomWorks Staffer Faces Charges In Jan. 6 Capitol Attack”