In A Post-Roe America, Expect More Births In A Country Where Maternal Mortality Continues To Rise

This article was originally published by ProPublica, a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom.

If the U.S. Supreme Court does as its leaked draft opinion says and strikes down Roe v. Wade, researchers expect that in the following year, roughly 75,000 people who want, but can’t get, abortions will give birth instead.

They’ll do so in a country where pregnancy and childbirth continue to become more dangerous.

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Gaetz Sneers At ‘Over-Educated’ Women Protesting SCOTUS Draft Striking Down Roe

As the Supreme Court gears up to dismantle Roe v. Wade, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) points out that the women who take issue with losing their abortion rights might just have too many brains in their girl heads.

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If You’re Serious About Making Roe the Midterm Issue

I was looking over some Senate races last night and I was reminded that it’s going to be a real challenge for Democrats to expand their Senate majority this fall. They’ll be happy just to hold it. We’re not learning anything new to recognize that Democrats face a very daunting midterm cycle. But I want to address a discussion that evolved over the course of yesterday as Democrats and Democratic officeholders reacted to the news.

Few people were more outspoken than Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) which is totally in character for her. She showed up at the protest outside the Supreme Court and she showed up on TV. She was in a fighting mood. I saw a lot of people saying, that’s what we need! And I agree. But I think there’s something else Democrats need even more: clarity.

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Schumer Promises (Symbolic) Senate Vote Codifying Abortion Rights

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.

Not A Lot Of Options

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) vowed during a press conference on Tuesday that the Senate will vote to codify abortion rights next week after a leaked draft of a Supreme Court majority opinion revealed that the high court is on track to strike down Roe v. Wade.

  • Schumer acknowledged that the vote won’t actually go anywhere, at least not where it truly matters. By his own admission, the main point would be to get every lawmaker’s stance on abortion “on record” ahead of the 2022 midterms.
  • Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) made it clear on Tuesday that Roe’s now-inevitable demise hasn’t changed their minds about clutching onto the filibuster. And in Manchin’s case, why would it? He voted with Republicans to filibuster a bill that would’ve codified abortion rights in February, and he was the only Democrat who voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court in 2018.

Where Abortion Will Be Banned Post-Roe

Once the Supreme Court hands down its now-expected ruling that will overturn Roe v. Wade and leave abortion rights up to the states, abortion will be banned in 23 states, per analysis by NBC News.

  • 13 of those states have “trigger laws” that enact their bans once Roe gets struck down.
  • On the flip side, states like California, New York, Oregon and Washington have enshrined abortion rights into law.

Trump Loses Bid To Pause Contempt Order

An appellate court on Tuesday shot down Trump’s request to stay a New York judge’s contempt order that requires the ex-president to pay a fine of $10,000 per day until he complies with the New York state attorney general’s subpoena. Trump made the request as he appeals the contempt order.

  • So those $10,000 daily fines will keep racking up until Trump either complies with the order or until at least May 23, which is when the appellate court is scheduled to hold his appeals hearing.
  • Trump was stuck with the $80,000 in fines he owed on Tuesday as a result of the appellate court’s rejection of his request.

‘JP Mandel’ Clinches Victory In Ohio GOP Primary

Per the Associated Press, Trump-endorsed Ohio Senate hopeful J.D. Vance has won the Republican primary on Tuesday, surviving the resurfacing of anti-Trump comments he made in 2016, including the one in which he compared Trump to Adolf Hitler.

  • Now he’ll be facing off against Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) in the general election this fall. Ryan defeated his challengers by a landslide, according to the votes reported by the AP.
  • Vance can take a breath of relief that his bid wasn’t sunk by a potential write-in campaign after Trump called him “J.P.,” then “J.D. Mandel” during a rally several days ago.

What You Can Expect To Hear From Republicans On SCOTUS Killing Roe

Axios, as helpful a resource for this kind of thing as ever, obtained talking points currently being circulated by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) in the face of the Supreme Court being on the cusp of dismantling Roe.

  • One point argues that “elected officials, not unelected judges, should reflect the consensus of the people.” Hmm, okay.
  • Another fun part is the deliberately vague language about giving women (and other people who can give birth) “some assistance” in the adoption process that they’ll be forced to resort to (on paper) when anti-abortion conservatives get their way.

EU Proposes Ban On Russian Oil

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Wednesday that the E.U. is proposing a ban on Russian oil imports as part of another round of sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

  • The crude oil supply would be phased out in six months under the proposal, according to Leyen.
  • All E.U. member states still need to approve the proposal, however.

NY Governor Taps US Rep. To Replace Indicted Lt. Guv

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) announced on Tuesday that she had appointed Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) as lieutenant governor and her running mate in her reelection bid after Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin (D) was indicted on corruption charges and resigned.

  • The appointment came a day after the New York state legislature passed controversial election legislation at Hochul’s urging that would kick a candidate off the state ballot if they were arrested or charged after being nominated.
  • Delgado will have to give up his congressional seat immediately. Per the New York Times, he was in for a tough reelection fight.

There’s A Data Firm Selling Location Data On People Going To Abortion Clinics

A company called SafeGraph is selling location data that shows where people who go to clinics like Planned Parenthood came from and how long they stayed there.

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20 Years Of Democratic Backsliding Got Us To The Roe Reversal

If the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade in the near future, as a leaked draft opinion Monday night indicated it likely will, the ruling will represent one of the least popular decisions in recent history by arguably the least representative body in American politics. 

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Alito’s Opinion is Traditionalism Masquerading as Originalism

It’s long been a truism that the precedents that would need to be toppled to overturn Roe v Wade would put in jeopardy or remove the underpinnings of rights to contraception, same sex marriage and a whole range of reproductive, erotic and matrimonial autonomy and freedom this country has long taken for granted. This is based on the jurisprudence of a “right to privacy” which is the basis of numerous court decisions going back to the 1960s. In a way it is antiseptic and structural. To do away with Roe you need to do away with the right of privacy and doing away with the right of privacy means a whole raft of other decisions fall. But reading Alito’s decision he didn’t want to leave it to that. He dismisses the privacy jurisprudence out of hand and then focuses his argument on these rights not being “deeply rooted in this Nation’s history and tradition” or “implicit in the concept of ordered liberty.”

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Where Things Stand: A Link Between Backsliding Democracies And Abortion Bans

There’s lots of brilliant think pieces from reporters, scholars and political observers to consume today to help wrap one’s head around the gravity of the last 24-hours. Here’s another take to add to the list this evening.

New York Times writer Max Fisher flagged a piece he published back in September 2021 here:

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