Election Countdown #1

Minor point. But worth noting. I want to draw your attention to how even very small shifts in voting support could produce huge potential swings in the battle for control of the Senate. The current polls make it entirely plausible that Republicans get a 53 or even 54 seat majority in the Senate. They also make at least 52 and quite possibly 54 seats for the Democrats just as plausible. According to 538’s averages there are 8 races which are within 4 percentage points and 7 within 3. By most standards those are all a coin toss.

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Where Things Stand: Wisconsin GOP Guv Candidate Is Saying The Quiet Part Very Loud And Clear

The Republican challenging Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers next week has openly fessed up to his plan to target elections administration in the purple state in a way that ensures Republicans permanently control it.

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Pennsylvania Supreme Court Gives GOP A Win On Ballots With Incorrect Or Missing Dates, For Now

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ordered Tuesday that county boards of elections segregate and “refrain from counting” mail-in ballots with missing or incorrect dates on the outer envelope. 

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SCOTUS Slaps Down Lindsey Graham’s Bid To Evade Georgia Grand Jury

The Supreme Court on Tuesday denied a request from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to avoid testifying before a Georgia grand jury in a state criminal probe of Trump’s interference in the state’s 2020 election.

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Israel Election

Israel goes to the polls today for the 5th time in three years. The general consensus is that ousted PM Benjamin Netanyahu is more likely than not to be able to form another even harder-right government. (More on that later.) But it’s by no means a certain thing. Basically they’re still in the same deadlock space they’ve been in for years. The only question is whether one side or another manages to get 61 or 62 votes to form a narrow majority coalition.

But one thing is notable: turnout is running much higher than recent elections. It’s currently running more than 6% over the last election, the highest turnout since 1999.

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DOJ Weighs In On Case Against Conservative Group Surveilling Drop Boxes In Arizona

Over the last few weeks, Arizona’s secretary of state has received several complaints from voters who claim that individuals, sometimes armed and disguised, took photos and videos of them as they deposited their ballots in drop boxes. Citing these reports and others, voting rights groups have gone to federal court trying to shut down the surveillance efforts, arguing they would intimidate voters. 

On Monday, attorneys from the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division filed a forceful 25-page statement of interest, staking their position in the case.

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The Big Picture

To understand the last six years and the years going forward you have to get your head around this stuff …

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Tom Barrack, a onetime private equity executive and fundraiser for Donald Trump, traded his access to the then-president for investments from the United Arab Emirates, a U.S. prosecutor said on Tuesday during closing arguments in Barrack’s foreign agent trial.

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No Looksies! John Eastman Upset Jan. 6 Committee Perused The Emails He Gave Them

In a Sunday filing, former Donald Trump attorney John Eastman — one of the key architects of Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election — disclosed that he complied with a federal district judge’s order and provided the Jan. 6 Committee with a dropbox link that contained the eight emails he has been refusing to share.

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