The House majority, however you slice the outstanding races, is coming down to the wire.
Continue reading “How Republicans Tipped The House Scales Long Before Votes Were Cast”Inside the Fetterman Campaign
Kate Riga and I just did our TPM Newsmaker Briefing with Fetterman campaign manager Brendan McPhillips. We got a lot of fascinating details. One was that the idea that the race looked basically like a jump ball in the final week of the campaign wasn’t just an artifact of spending too much time refreshing 538. It looked really tight based on the internal polling and other data that the campaign had on the inside. Another was the difference between in-state media’s reaction to Fetterman’s debate performance and the national media’s. A fairly stark difference, as he described it. McPhillips also told us that focus group reactions to Fetterman’s stroke recovery tended to be pretty sympathetic, even to a degree which was perhaps a little surprising to his own campaign. So we got the sense that the Fetterman team was able to have relative confidence that Pennsylvania voters were seeing Fetterman’s stroke recovery through a more sympathetic prism than most in the national press assumed or shared.
If you’re a member and you didn’t get a chance to join us live, we’ll be published the video here tomorrow in the Editor’s Blog.
Putin Lost More Than Just Kherson This Week
There’s a big piece of Russia’s latest defeat in Ukraine this week that’s getting missed.
Continue reading “Putin Lost More Than Just Kherson This Week”New And Old Secretaries of State Declare Election Denialism A ‘Losing Strategy’—But It Might Not Be Dead Yet
A bipartisan group of election chiefs have signed their names to an increasingly popular takeaway from Tuesday’s midterms: election denialism — at least, as a political strategy — loses. That doesn’t mean it’ll go away.
On Monday afternoon, the nonprofit States United Action convened five secretaries of state to conduct a post-mortem on the midterms. The panel featured seasoned vets like Michigan’s Jocelyn Benson (D), Georgia’s Brad Raffensperger (R), and Kentucky’s former secretary of state Trey Grayson (R), as well as newly elected officials including Arizona’s Adrian Fontes (D) and Nevada’s Cisco Aguilar (D), both of whom defeated election deniers in their states last Tuesday.
Continue reading “New And Old Secretaries of State Declare Election Denialism A ‘Losing Strategy’—But It Might Not Be Dead Yet”Dems Trying To Claw Their Way To A Win Over Lauren Boebert
Gun-toting, Biden-heckling, MAGA fave Lauren Boebert continues to hold a razor-tight lead over Democratic challenger Adam Frisch. With 99% of the votes reported, the controversial Boebert is leading by less than a percentage point, according to the latest returns.
With just 1,122 votes between the candidates since Friday, Democrats are trying to close the vote gap but face an uphill climb.
Continue reading “Dems Trying To Claw Their Way To A Win Over Lauren Boebert”Abortion, Democracy and The Bogey of Issue Literalism
One regular refrain of the last month of the 2022 midterm was that abortion and Dobbs had faded as a driving issue in the face of economic concerns. Another was that “democracy” was, for most voters, an abstraction without much relevance to more immediate concerns like inflation. That first bit of conventional wisdom always seemed overstated at best. But the election results point to something different that many observers missed in the narrow and perhaps over-literal way these issues were siloed in polls and election commentary: abortion, election denialism and other elements of GOP whackery melded together into a broader fear of Republican extremism that was larger than the sum of its parts.
Continue reading “Abortion, Democracy and The Bogey of Issue Literalism”DOJ Knocks Trump ‘Shell Game’ Over Classified Docs
Nearly two years out of office, former President Trump continues to argue that he’s imbued with the powers of the presidency.
Continue reading “DOJ Knocks Trump ‘Shell Game’ Over Classified Docs”Gallego Goes After Sinema: ‘She Only Cares About Herself’
Potential primary challenger Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is going hard after Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) for what he says was her absence on the campaign trail, saying she could have helped Arizona’s Democratic candidates who were on the ticket last week but didn’t.
Continue reading “Gallego Goes After Sinema: ‘She Only Cares About Herself’”Election Deniers Fail To Win Secretary Of State Positions In Swing States
As the winner of Nevada’s Senate election came into focus this weekend — and with it, the reality that Democrats would retain the upper chamber for two more years — a winner was also projected in another key race: That for Nevada’s secretary of state.
Continue reading “Election Deniers Fail To Win Secretary Of State Positions In Swing States”Voters Want Impartial Election Administration—And Tuesday’s Results Confirm It
This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis.
With attention focused on the battle for control of Congress, some of the signs went under the radar. But last week’s results offered evidence for an encouraging takeaway: that voters understand the threat posed by our party-driven system of election management in today’s hyper-partisan era — and are eager for solutions.
Most important, of course, we now know that all three of the swing-state candidates for secretary of state who have denied the results of the 2020 election were defeated. Over the weekend, the races involving Mark Finchem in Arizona and Jim Marchant in Nevada were called for their opponents, and Michigan’s Kristina Karamo lost by a wide margin on election night — outcomes underlining that, for those running for election official posts, denialism and extremism are electoral losers. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, where the secretary of state is appointed by the governor, election denier Doug Mastriano’s comfortable loss in the governor’s race also suggests that, at the very least, he wasn’t helped by his pledge to appoint a like-minded chief election official.
Still, as dangerous as it is, denialism is just a symptom of a larger, systemic issue. Especially given today’s lack of trust between the parties, using partisan politicians to run our elections damages voter confidence, even when election officials do the job impartially. Two less publicized results from Tuesday suggest voters agree.
In Washington, independent Julie Anderson lost her race for secretary of state to the incumbent, Democrat Steve Hobbs, by a relatively narrow margin — currently less than four points. Anderson came close to Hobbs even without the advantages conferred by the backing of a major party, and while being outspent by three to one in a solid blue state that comfortably re-elected its Democratic senator. That isn’t just a testament to her skills as a candidate, and the reputation for expertise and integrity that she earned as a longtime county election director. Central to Anderson’s campaign were her pledge not to accept help from a political party, and her support for making future elections for secretary of state nonpartisan. Her strong showing, then, appears to reflect a desire among voters for election officials who are beholden only to the public interest, and not to partisan interests.
Meanwhile, Michigan voters didn’t just reject an election denier candidate for secretary of state. They also overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure, known as Question 2, that among other reforms aimed to shore up the state’s elections against damaging partisan influence.
In 2020, Republican members of the canvassing board for both the state and the largest county refused to certify results, briefly throwing the contest into turmoil and damaging trust in the outcome. Since then, election deniers have gained spots on county canvassing boards, and efforts to turn certification into a partisan weapon have spread to other states. Question 2, in addition to making changes to some of the rules governing voting access, aims to prevent a repeat of Michigan’s 2020 experience: It confirms that state and county canvassing boards are legally required to certify results as provided by election officials. It also bars the state legislature from playing any role in certification — cutting off another potential route for manipulation that partisans explored last time.
The measure’s passage, then, makes clear that many voters understand how excessive partisan influence in certification was damaging the state’s elections, and were determined to fix the problem. It offers an encouraging sign that, despite the many serious challenges our politics face, voters can still come together on behalf of common-sense reforms.
Tuesday’s results aren’t the only recent evidence that voters grasp the threat and want reforms. A nationwide survey commissioned by our organization and released last month found that voters across the ideological spectrum strongly value impartial election administration. It also found high levels of support for stronger rules aimed at ensuring election officials remain free from close party ties.
There’s a range of steps we can take to reduce the role of partisanship in election administration, and to bolster trust in the process.
Model ethics legislation developed by our organization would bar chief election officials from taking explicit partisan steps that undermine voter trust — like endorsing or raising money for other candidates. The bill would make it illegal for election officials to use their “official authority to influence or interfere, or attempt to interfere, with the outcome of any election” — ensuring that election officials represent the interests of voters, not parties.
A separate model bill would set qualifications for candidates for chief election officer, including experience running elections — a requirement that would have stopped nearly all the election- denier secretary of state candidates this year from running. Both measures would shift the demographics of the candidate pool for these posts away from partisan politicians and toward election professionals. These bills are already gaining sponsors from both parties for introduction in state legislatures next year.
States should also change how they choose their chief election official. One option is nonpartisan elections, which can be combined with the kind of ethics requirements outlined above to ensure that candidates are truly nonpartisan in more than name. An even more effective solution is for states to select chief election officials using commissions of experts, along the lines of the merit selection panels that many states use to pick judges.
Make no mistake: Tuesday’s results also showed that America remains as bitterly divided as ever. And the manner in which the election has played out offers no reason to think that the intense partisan animosity that’s taken hold of our politics in recent years is loosening its grip. But that’s exactly why it’s more urgent than ever that we shore up our elections against attempted partisan manipulation in any form. Thankfully, voters appear to be recognizing the need for change.