Unanswered Questions

TPM Reader EG notes a post from our friend Barry Ritholtz in which he notes ten questions or current unknowns about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. You can find them here. As Barry points out, if past financial crises are any guide, we currently — that is to say, in real time — have only a very limited understanding of just what happened here and why. Presumably decision-makers at the Fed and FDIC had substantially more information that was the basis of the decisions they made on Sunday. But their understanding is almost certainly limited too. Check his post out. Often a knowledgable set of questions is far more illuminating than opinion and assertion in advance of any real understanding and context.

A few general observations.

Continue reading “Unanswered Questions”

Inciter-In-Chief Trump Now Blames Mike Pence For The Jan. 6 Violence

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.

Upsidedownism

A classic of the Trump up-is-really-down genre: If Mike Pence had done my bidding on Jan. 6, there’d have been no violence.

Trump was reacting to Pence’s weekend comments denouncing Trump as “wrong” and predicting that history would hold the former president “accountable.”

Trump made his remarks to reporters aboard his plane en route to Iowa for a campaign appearance:

“Had he sent the votes back to the legislatures, they wouldn’t have had a problem with Jan. 6, so in many ways you can blame him for Jan. 6. …

Had he sent them back to Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, the states, I believe, number one, you would have had a different outcome. But I also believe you wouldn’t have had ‘Jan. 6’ as we call it.”

Putting “Jan. 6” in quotes is priceless.

D’oh!

Prosecutors say a Jan. 6 defendant violated court-imposed travel conditions by attending CPAC(!).

DOJ Calls Out Tucker Carlson’s Jan. 6 Revisionism

Forced to contend with Tucker Carlson’s selective use of Jan. 6 surveillance footage (because defense attorneys in the ongoing Proud Boys trial are trying to make it an issue), the Justice Department in a new filing dismissed Carlson’s video of “QAnon shaman” Jacob Chansley as not new, a tiny snippet of his time in the Capitol, and not showing his most incriminating conduct.

Michael Cohen Set For Second Day Of Grand Jury Testimony

Former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen is expected to resume testifying today to the Manhattan grand jury investigating former President Trump’s hush money payments to Stormy Daniels:

  • Cohen spent three hours testifying Monday afternoon.
  • Trump has “no plans” to accept Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s invitation to testify to the grand jury, according to a Trump attorney.
  • Trump attorney Susan Necheles is the lead attorney on the case, according to another Trump attorney, and she has met with Bragg’s office, presumably to try to head off an indictment.

New Chief Judge In DC

The two-year term of U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell as chief judge in DC ends this week. She will be replaced by U.S. District James E. Boasberg.

The chief judge oversees the grand juries in DC, which has placed Howell at the center of the secret grand jury wrangling over two major investigations of Trump: Jan. 6 and the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case.

Trump Faces Trial Next Month On E. Jean Carroll’s Rape Claim

Adam Klasfeld: What to know about the two other Donald Trump accusers allowed to testify at E. Jean Carroll’s rape trial.

Great Read

Sarah Posner: A Christian Chatbot Has Some Bad News For Republicans

SVB Fallout Rattles Financial System

Some of the key highlights from the last 24 hours:

  • NYT: Officials with Signature and SVB called for looser financial requirements for midsize banks.
  • WSJ: CEO Greg Becker Was There for SVB’s Quick Rise and Even Quicker Fall
  • WSJ: “Regulators are planning to take another crack at auctioning failed Silicon Valley Bank, according to people familiar with the matter, after they were unable to find a buyer for the firm over the weekend.” 
  • Inflation data for February was just released moment ago.

Moody’s Puts 6 US Banks On Downgrade Watch

Moody’s Investors Service is considering downgrading six U.S. regional banks citing concerns over the lenders’ reliance on uninsured deposit funding and unrealized losses in their asset portfolios, Bloomberg reports:

  • First Republic Bank
  • Western Alliance Bancorp. 
  • Intrust Financial Corp.
  • UMB Financial Corp.
  • Zions Bancorp.
  • Comerica Inc. 

Bank Stocks Show Signs Of Stabilizing

Bloomberg: “A selloff in global financial stocks paused Tuesday after a two-day, $465 billion wipeout.”

Hates Crimes In US Hit All-Time High

WaPo: “Hate crimes in the United States rose in 2021 to the highest level since the federal government began tracking the data more than three decades ago, the FBI said Monday in a new report that also reflected a record spike in attacks targeting people of Asian descent.”

McConnell Moved To Inpatient Rehab

After suffering a traumatic brain injury and broken rib in a fall last week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has been moved to an inpatient rehabilitation facility to continue his recovery.

RIP

(Original Caption) Washington: Rep. Pat Schroeder, D-Colo. leads “Women Running Against Reagan” from the Capitol. The crowd chanted and jeered Reagan for his opposition to the Equal Rights Amendment, of sex discrimination laws.

Former Rep. Patricia Schroeder (D-CO) has died at 82.

Carter Vigil

President Biden let slip that former President Carter invited him to deliver a eulogy at his funeral.

DeSantis: Protecting Ukraine Is Not a Key U.S. Interest

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis released a statement Monday night – via Tucker Carlson – that protecting Ukraine is not a vital U.S. interest:

The venue Mr. DeSantis chose for his statement on a major foreign policy question revealed almost as much as the substance of the statement itself. The statement was broadcast on “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” on Fox News. It was in response to a questionnaire that the host, Mr. Carlson, sent last week to all major prospective Republican presidential candidates, and is tantamount to an acknowledgment by Mr. DeSantis that a candidacy is in the offing.

DeSantis left himself some wiggle room, not going so far as to say that U.S. assistance to Ukraine should be cut off entirely.

Russia Faces New War Crimes Investigations

The International Criminal Court will open two new war crimes investigations into Russia’s conduct in Ukraine, focusing on:

  • its alleged abduction of children and their relocation to re-education camps; and
  • it deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructre.

Your reminder that the Pentagon is resisting providing intel to the International Criminal Court about Russian atrocities because of the U.S. military’s longstanding fear that it would open the door to prosecuting American personnel for war crimes.

That is of, course, exactly as it should be: The American military should be operating in fear of international consequences for committing war crimes.

A Bird’s-Eye View Of The Catastrophe

A remarkable visual story on the destruction in Antakya, Turkey, where some 20,000 people died in last month’s earthquake:

The earthquake’s death toll across Turkey and Syria now stands around 55,000.

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What Counts As a Bailout?

Things moved very fast early Sunday evening. As you likely now know, the troika of the Fed, the FDIC and the Treasury axed a second bank — Signature Bank of New York — and decided to guarantee all deposits at Signature and Silicon Valley Bank because of “systemic risk” to the whole banking system. As noted yesterday, the issue at least with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) seemed to a significant degree to be one of liquidity. It appears to have assets to cover the great majority of its deposits. So the costs to the FDIC should be limited, and perhaps there’s no cost at all. I’m less clear on the exact situation at Signature Bank, which had more exposure to the imploding crypto sector. But I assume it’s broadly similar.

To me the most interesting and noteworthy issue to emerge over the last 48 hours is the debate or really the unclarity about what counts as a “bailout.” The dictionary definition is simple enough. There is no specific or technical meaning. It just means action to relieve someone or some entity in financial distress. But what became clear this weekend is that quite a few people have decided post-Global Financial Crisis that a bailout is relief for shareholders. Making depositors whole is not. That’s just making depositors whole. As long as the bank’s owners get wiped out or take a severe hit, it’s not a bailout.

But there’s little basis for that distinction.

Continue reading “What Counts As a Bailout?”

Ohio Groups Overcome Another Hurdle In Push To Enshrine Abortion Protections In State Constitution

Ohio groups working in concert to codify abortion protections in the state’s constitution overcame one of the final administrative hurdles Monday when the Ohio Ballot Board cleared them to start collecting signatures. 

Continue reading “Ohio Groups Overcome Another Hurdle In Push To Enshrine Abortion Protections In State Constitution”

DOJ Says Jan. 6 Footage Aired By Fox News Creates Misleading Narrative

Justice Department attorneys shut down the notion that the seditious conspiracy trial against the five Proud Boys leaders should be dismissed based on the footage Fox News host Tucker Carlson aired on his show last week, arguing that Carlson painted a misleading picture of a rioter’s activities that day.

Continue reading “DOJ Says Jan. 6 Footage Aired By Fox News Creates Misleading Narrative”

Trump-Appointed Judge Tries To Keep Hearing In Major Abortion Pill Case Secret 

Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk hasn’t shied from the spotlight in the few years since he was confirmed — after a few false starts — to the federal bench under then-President Donald Trump.

Continue reading “Trump-Appointed Judge Tries To Keep Hearing In Major Abortion Pill Case Secret “

Michigan Man Arrested After Alleged YouTube Threats Against Whitmer, Biden, And Others

A Michigan man with a history of mental illness was arrested by the FBI on Thursday after he allegedly made threatening comments against federal agents, the LGBT community, and Democratic politicians including President Joe Biden and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Continue reading “Michigan Man Arrested After Alleged YouTube Threats Against Whitmer, Biden, And Others”

A Christian Chatbot Has Some Bad News For Republicans

The chatbot craze has gone biblical. A new bot “responds with a scripture based on how you feel.” It uses the King James version of the Bible, the translation preferred by many literalists and Christian nationalists, who claim it is the most reliably true to God’s word. But there’s some bad news for Republicans who think the wave of draconian new laws cracking down on reproductive and transgender rights are rooted in biblical principles. ChatKJV says they’re wrong.

Continue reading “A Christian Chatbot Has Some Bad News For Republicans”

Michael Cohen To Testify To Stormy Daniels Grand Jury

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.

Final Stages Before Trump Indictment

Former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, the central witness in the Stormy Daniel hush money scandal, is expected to testify Monday afternoon to a Manhattan grand jury investigating the scheme to keep the porn actress quiet in the closing days of Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Cohen’s testimony, coupled with prosecutor’s invitation for Trump himself to testify, suggest not only that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is closing in on a charging decision but that he is likely to seek an indictment of Trump.

  • AP: “Cohen has been meeting regularly with Manhattan prosecutors in recent weeks, including a daylong session Friday to prepare for his grand jury appearance.”
  • WSJ: “Once Mr. Cohen testifies, the grand jury will have heard from every person who played a key role in the hush-money deal and its aftermath.”
  • NYT: “It would be highly unusual for a prosecutor in a high-profile white-collar case to go through a weekslong presentation of evidence — and question nearly every relevant witness — without intending to seek an indictment.”

Jean Carroll Can Use Access Hollywood Tape

The judge ruled Friday that the Access Hollywood tape in which Donald Trump brags about grabbing women by the “pussy” is admissible in the upcoming trial of E. Jean Carroll’s defamation claim against him. Also admissible: the testimony of two other women who have accused Trump of sexual assault.

Judge Shoots Down Media Access To Secret MAL Proceedings

Politico: “A federal judge has rejected a bid by media organizations to gain access to records related to a dispute over compliance with a grand jury subpoena for classified documents stored at former President Donald Trump’s Florida estate.”

Suddenly Everyone Is A Banking Expert

A lot has transpired very quickly since I flagged the Silicon Valley Bank mess to you in Friday’s Morning Memo. I’m no banking regulatory expert, so I’m not going to devote a lot of space here to it, but it is a truly important story. The key developments:

  • Friday: California shut down Silicon Valley Bank and the FDIC immediately stepped in.
  • Sunday: The Treasury Department announced that the FDIC would backstop all depositors in SVB, not just depositors insured by the FDIC.
  • At the same time, Treasury announced it was taking similar steps with New York’s Signature Bank, which was heavy into crypto: It was shut down and all depositors were covered, not just insured ones.
  • Monday: San Francisco’s First Republic Bank is looking wobbly this morning.

A few cautions: Don’t be quick to point fingers or buy instant analyses or easy conclusions. A complex interlocking set of factors are contributing to the current crisis, and there’s no one culprit or villain.

That said, there’s a lot of good reporting and smart analysis out there. You might consider Matt Levine’s Money Stuff as a primer. We’ve long relied on Dennis Kelleher, who’s been fighting the fight on regulating the financial system for more than a decade.

Biden To Make Remarks On Bank Failures This Morning

The President is scheduled to make remarks about the banking crisis at the White House this morning sometime after 8 a.m. ET before flying to San Diego to meet with the prime ministers of the UK and Australia.

Greg Abbott’s Big Border Wall Scheme

TPM’s Josh Kovensky has been all over Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s gambit to declare himself the true heir of Donald “Build The Wall” Trump:

Feb. 28: Abbott Tries To Resurrect Trump Border Wall Project Through Bizarre Use Of State Resources

March 7: Abbott Has Spent Nearly $1 Billion To Complete Trump’s Wall. He’s Just Getting Started.

March 11: Texas Has Massive Wall-Building Contracts. But It Doesn’t Have Anywhere To Put A Wall.

Michigan Man Arrested After YouTube Threats Against Whitmer And Biden

Randall Robert Berka II was arrested and charged with federal firearms violations after Google tipped off the feds that he was making threatening remarks on YouTube, according to news reports and court filings.

There’s a lot going on here (emphasis mine):

Investigators went to Berka’s house, in Huron County, and spoke with his mother, who said she had purchased a handgun and three long guns for her son in the past year. She said he keeps the guns, as well as ammunition and body armor, in his room at their house.

Berka was involuntarily committed for mental health treatment in 2012, court documents say, and his mental health history is what prohibits him from having a gun. His mother told investigators she didn’t think his treatments are working and that he should be arrested and imprisoned.

The YouTube rants also included threats against FBI agents and the LGBT community.

Deeply Troubling

Credit to MSNBC’s Lisa Rubin, who flagged some weirdness on the docket in the Texas abortion-pill case. It turned out to be quite an unusual move from the already-controversial U.S. District Judge Matthew J. Kacsmaryk:

WaPo: In an unusual move, judge delays public notice of abortion-pill hearing

NYT: Judge in Abortion Pill Case Set Hearing but Sought to Delay Telling the Public

Law Dork: Texas judge ignores his own rules to keep mifepristone case moves hidden from public

What The Post-Dobbs World Looks Like

A Texas man is suing three friends of his ex-wife under the state’s wrongful death statute for helping her to obtain abortion medication.

BBC Playing Catch Up To TPM

The BBC decided to profile Aleksandar Savic, the Serbian man who inspired Jan. 6 rioters then emigrated to Texas. But more than a year after the TPM profile of Savic, the BBC came up short:

Although the couple refused to answer our questions, last year Mr Savic answered questions from left-wing website Talking Points Memo in which he denied inciting violence, saying that “angry people” can be inspired by anything from “books” to “rap songs.”

LOL Pence

The former vice president took the opportunity of being in front of a bunch of political journalists in DC over the weekend to lambaste Donald Trump for Jan. 6. Surely political reporters aren’t THAT gullible? Wrong!

Politico did one of its patented “Inside the …” stories: “Inside Pence world’s decision to go hard at Trump at the Gridiron.” It didn’t mention until the 16th paragraph in an 18-paragraph story that Pence is actively fighting a subpoena from the grand jury investigating Jan. 6.

Was Fox News Good Or Just Lucky?

Dominion Voting System’s massive defamation lawsuit against Fox News has revived the debate among campaign and election types over whether the network got it right when it called Arizona for Biden so early in 2020.

What Price Should Fox News Pay?

Grid News: Should Fox News hosts who pushed 2020 election lies be allowed to keep journalistic accolades?

Good Read

A ProPublica review of local officials who refused to certify 2022 election results found that most did not face formal consequences. Experts explain what that means for the future of American elections.

The Nord Stream Sabotage Mystery

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