We’ve now had the day of spectacle and legal experts have had a chance to provide their first analyses of the case brought against former President Trump. On the substance the case isn’t difficult to understand: In the final weeks of the 2016 campaign, Trump orchestrated a hush money scheme to keep a series of affairs and assignations out of the press and in so doing broke a series of laws. The legal arguments behind the case are more complicated, involving both federal and state laws, and a specific argument about how different violations of the law interact with each other to create a broader pattern of criminal conduct.
Continue reading “The Law Isn’t Brittle for Following It”Dan Kelly Throws Emotional Tantrum After Losing Wisconsin Supreme Court Race
Dan Kelly, the former Wisconsin Supreme Court justice who lost a second race for the bench Tuesday night, delivered less of a concession speech and more of a lengthy, emotional whine.
Continue reading “Dan Kelly Throws Emotional Tantrum After Losing Wisconsin Supreme Court Race”Donald Trump Suffers Major Setback In Jan. 6 Investigation
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo.
What A Moment
Yesterday’s events had me recalling the indelible scene at the end of All The President’s Men, with Nixon being sworn in to a second term while Woodward and Bernstein clack away on their typewriters with the stories that will lead to his resignation some 18 months later.
With all eyes glued to the circus atmosphere outside the courthouse in Manhattan ahead of Donald Trump’s early afternoon arraignment on state charges in the Stormy Daniels hush money case, a separate midday sealed court ruling in Washington, D.C., served as reminder of the multiple layers of legal jeopardy the former president faces.
The DC Circuit Court of Appeals declined Trump’s reported request to intervene on an emergency basis and block the imminent grand jury testimony of several former Trump administration officials in Special Counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 investigation.
Trump is apparently appealing a March 15 order from U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell, at the time the chief judge in DC, that rejected his executive privilege arguments to block his former aides’ testimony. Trump’s lawyers were reportedly in court Monday trying to convince U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, Howell’s successor as chief judge (who oversees grand jury proceedings like this one) to stay the order while they appealed. Apparently they lost that argument, resulting in the emergency appeal.
The appeals court ruling came after a flurry of late night filings Monday, all under seal so we have very little visibility into the actual arguments or which aides it involved. So all of the reporting around this development is necessarily hedged and uncertain.
But based on reporting, primarily from CNN and ABC News, the grand jury testimony at issue appears to involve former Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows, Trump White House advisers Stephen Miller and Dan Scavino, former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, and former national security adviser Robert O’Brien, and former Homeland Security acting secretary Ken Cuccinelli. Some or all of those witnesses may have already testified before the grand jury but invoked executive privilege to refuse to answer certain questions.
The three-judge panel that denied the emergency motion included Obama appointees Patricia Millett and Robert Wilkins and Trump appointee Greg Katsas. Early reporting indicates Trump will not appeal this ruling to the Supreme Court.
It appears that Trump’s broader appeal is still pending – the appeals court only denied his emergency motion – but in a sign of how quickly things are moving, Cuccinelli was brought back before the grand jury Tuesday afternoon after the appeals court decision, CNN reported. So the practical effect may be that Trump has lost his most plausible executive privilege claims.
What An Amazing Scandal!
Step back for a moment and marvel at what an amazing scandal the Stormy Daniels hush money scheme is.
Come on! In any other era, this would be awesome!
Only because of the passage of time and the subsequent TWO impeachments and failed coup does this scandal seem tepid. But judge it by pre-2017 standards and it’s amazing! The toxic stew of sex AND money AND power AND coverup. What more could you want?
You have the country’s leading tabloid mag conspiring with the GOP nominee for president to bury negative stories about him, including an apparently debunked claim from his doorman that he fathered a child out of wedlock, a disputed claim of a one-night stand with a porn star that cost him $130,000, and a contested claim that he had an affair with a Playboy playmate.
It’s 100% bonkers on its face!
Is You Takin’ Notes On A Criminal Fuckin’ Conspiracy?
My favorite reveals from yesterday were how lame and ineffectual the coverup was.
They were writing checks. Checks! It’s all traceable. It’s all evidence now in the criminal case.
At one point, we learned yesterday, Trump Org CFO Allen Weisselberg allegedly jotted down the particulars of the agreement to reimburse Michael Cohen for his hush money payment to Daniels on Trump’s behalf.
HE WROTE IT DOWN!
Prosecutors appear to have the document with those notes, according to the statement of facts filed in the case: “The TO CFO [Weisselberg] memorialized these calculations in handwritten notes on the copy of the bank statement that Lawyer A [Cohen] had provided.”
You know what Stringer Bell would say about this.
Golf Clap
Trump Rails Against All The Prosecutors Investigating Him
TPM’s Hunter Walker watched Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago speech last night for you.
What Are The Odds?
Donald Trump’s next in-person appearance in the Manhattan criminal case isn’t scheduled to happen until December (with trial sometime early next year). I find it almost impossible to imagine that he doesn’t get hauled in before then to account for threatening remarks and incitements to violence, forcing the the judge to consider a gag order in the case.
Ironic!
Around the same time former President Trump was pleading not guilty in Manhattan in the Stormy Daniels hush money case, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ordered Daniels to pay nearly $122,000 in legal fees to Trump’s attorneys in her failed libel suit.
Janet Protasiewicz Wins In Wisconsion
A huge win for abortion rights with national implications in the most closely watched race of 2023.
Also this:
‘We’ll Cut Your Throats. We’ll Put A Bullet In Your Head.’
A Maryland man allegedly left a voicemail at the DC office of Human Rights Campaign, a major LGBT advocacy group, threatening to “slaughter” them in apparent retaliation for the Covenant School shooting in Nashville, where the shooter was a transgender person. The man was arrested by the FBI and is facing federal charges.
‘I Agree That They’re Overalls’
A sample of TPMer Josh Kovensky’s reporting from outside the Manhattan courthouse before Trump’s arraignment:
Do you like Morning Memo? Let us know!
Trump Responds To Indictment By Railing Against All The Prosecutors Investigating Him
Former President Trump responded to being indicted on Tuesday with an angry speech in which he painted a dark vision of the country and unloaded a litany of conspiracy theories, some familiar and some novel. Cheered on by MAGA movement celebrities, he railed against President Joe Biden and criticized, at length and with specifics, the various prosecutors investigating him.
Continue reading “Trump Responds To Indictment By Railing Against All The Prosecutors Investigating Him”Protasiewicz Wins Wisconsin Court Race
And that’s a wrap. The AP has called the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. At TPM we wait for two media calls to consider a race settled. But tonight in the Editors’ Blog let’s put a fork in this one. (Celebrate by becoming a member during our annual TPM membership drive!!!!) From the beginning of the count, the de facto Republican Kelly has been running behind the numbers he needed in basically every part of the state. This one won’t even end up being that close. There will be a liberal majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Scott Walker and his crew basically wired this state so Republicans were always in control. This may be the beginning of the end of that dominance. Not that Republicans can’t win of course. It’s basically a 50/50 state. But it was wired in such a way that Republicans still controlled things even when most Wisconsinites voted against them. Without control of the Supreme Court, the Wisconsin GOP’s crazy-level extreme gerrymandering may come apart.
Liberal Candidate Wins Wisconsin Supreme Court Race, A Significant Victory For Abortion Rights
Liberal Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz will be the newest Wisconsin Supreme Court justice, putting the court’s liberal bloc in the majority for the first time in nearly 15 years.
Continue reading “Liberal Candidate Wins Wisconsin Supreme Court Race, A Significant Victory For Abortion Rights”Close to Callin’ it in Wisconsin
9:55 p.m.: And AP calls it for Protasiewicz. Put a fork in Dan Kelly he’s done. Dems will control Wisconsin Supreme Court, a development with big ramifications in and out of the state.
9:53 p.m.: I’m not good enough with numbers to “call” anything. But I think you can consider the Wisconsin court race done with Protasiewicz winning with a relatively comfortable margin. Mid-single digits.
******
No one is calling the race here. But liberal candidate Janet Protasiewicz seems to be running ahead of her necessary margins basically everywhere in the state. Conservative Kelly just doesn’t seem to have the numbers. There’s some reluctance to call the race I think in part because off-year elections can be so unpredictable. But I don’t think anyone looking at the details thinks there’s much chance Kelly wins. The election is nominally non-partisan. Thus the two candidates are not formally running as Democrats and Republicans, though in practice it’s a thoroughly partisanized contest.
Going into the primary, one GOP observer told me he thought only one of the GOP candidates had a shot in the general election. That wasn’t Kelly. Basically unelectable, this person said. It gives you a sense of lessons learned from the 2022 midterm.
Polls Close in Wisconsin
This really is the big one. A lot rides on this and not just for Wisconsinites.
9:42 p.m.: Haven’t seen any formal calls but hard to see how Kelly wins this. Seems to be running behind the necessary numbers everywhere. Seems like Protasiewicz wins this and maybe by a pretty solid margin.
9:41 p.m.: Still not clear if Protasiewicz will win but Republicans already discussing impeaching her.
9:35 p.m.: Basically seems like Protasiewicz is running at or ahead of the margins she needs basically everywhere. Obviously that’s still with most of the votes uncounted. But you’d certainly rather be her than Kelly.
9:31 p.m.: A bit more clarity. Numbers are looking solid for Protasiewicz. But too early to say anything definitive.
9:25 p.m.: Results coming in pretty quickly now. But no real consensus on what the numbers show. Just a smattering of results and in an off year election differential turnout makes things hard to predict until we see more numbers.
News Out Chicago
Race not called yet. But it’s looking like Brandon Johnson is in a strong position to defeat Paul Vallas in the Chicago mayoral runoff. Johnson is the more progressive candidate, Vallas the more centrist or right-leaning. Both are Democrats. This was definitely portrayed as a referendum on urban Dem “soft on crime” politics. But voters don’t seem to have gone along with that narrative. Vallas currently has a tiny lead. But all the folks who know how to analyze the numbers say Vallas’ chances are on life support, given the votes that are left to be counted.
As I was writing this very short post, Johnson just moved into the tiniest of leads. But again, it’s not a matter of watching each additional vote come in. The remaining votes in toto seem to heavily favor Johnson. Dave Wasserman hasn’t called it yet but as of 9:05 he says it’s “virtually done.”
Don’t Forget! Very Important
A big thank you to the 108 new members who subscribed to TPM since we launched our annual drive yesterday afternoon. We really, really appreciate it. We’ve had a big news day and we’ve got a big election tonight. But I just want to remind you: This is a really important drive for us. Please take a moment to join us right this moment. Just click here. Thank you.