I don’t have too much to add to the widely expected and yet still historic indictment revealed just moments ago. Our team is poring over the document as I write. No President, really no politician in American history has committed a series of crimes of the magnitude of those committed by Donald Trump in the final months of his presidency from November 2020 into January of 2021. While very serious, the documents case in Mar-a-Lago pales in comparison. Certainly the felony case in New York state pales in comparison. The probable indictments in Georgia are likely of comparable consequence. Indeed, they appear to be part of the same broad conspiracy that is being charged today. No crime, no violation of the law can be more consequential or grave than one that seeks to overthrow the basis of the law itself, which is to say, to overthrow the federal constitution and the state itself.
Michigan AG Candidate Charged In Voting Machine Tampering Plot
Matt DePerno, the Republican nominee for Michigan attorney general last year, was arraigned on Tuesday on four charges related to a bizarre scheme aimed at proving President Trump’s 2020 election theft claims.
Continue reading “Michigan AG Candidate Charged In Voting Machine Tampering Plot”A Bit More on that Poll and Your Response
I wanted to follow up on my post below about this new Times/Siena poll. A number of you wrote in and made some of the following points. One was, isn’t it a mistake to be making much of anything about a poll almost 18 months before the election. Others pointed more generally to recent polling failures and more specifically to the fact that actual elections since Dobbs have showed Democrats overperforming both with respect to past elections and with regards to polls. One reader even noted that the Times/Siena poll was one of those which helped feed the “Red Wave” frenzy in 2022. That last point is I think only partly true. But the part that is true is worth keeping in mind.
In any case, these are all points well-taken. In general my aim in that post and other similar ones at this point in the campaign cycle is not to prognosticate but to look for vulnerabilities. We should always be on the lookout for facts or at least data that complicate our assumptions.
Continue reading “A Bit More on that Poll and Your Response”Fulton County DA Gets Racist Threats Ahead Of Charging Decisions In Trump 2020 Probe
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who is investigating former President Donald Trump and his allies’ efforts to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results, said she has been receiving racist threats and voicemails, according to multiple news reports.
Continue reading “Fulton County DA Gets Racist Threats Ahead Of Charging Decisions In Trump 2020 Probe”Looking at a New Poll
There’s a bit of a collective freakout this morning, at least in some quarters, about a new Times/Siena poll showing a tied race (link to crosstabs) between President Biden and Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch — a rematch which as we’ve discussed is almost a certainty. They’re currently tied at 43%. The upshot is that this shows a closer race than the 2020 election and, in the words of Times polling guru Nate Cohn, “to the extent the survey suggests a slightly closer race than four years ago, it appears mostly attributable to modest Trump gains among Black, Hispanic, male and low-income voters.” These days when a media organization invests in a big poll they really go to town with it, producing multiple articles. Here’s Cohn’s take on it. Here’s another focusing on the fact that Biden has consolidated Democratic support significantly since last year.
I’m still working through these numbers. But I wanted to share a few reactions and perhaps an outline guide to making sense of them.
Continue reading “Looking at a New Poll”DeSantis Campaign Was Totally Behind Those Controversial Meme Videos
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MUST READ
Semafor has an exclusive look at internal DeSantis campaign communications about the meme-filled videos produced in-house then distributed on the sly via supportive Twitter accounts:
The videos include two that have created recurring distractions for his campaign in recent weeks: an anti-Trump video that featured a fascist symbol, and another that attacked Donald Trump for past comments supportive of LGBT rights.
The meme-filled videos emerged from a Signal channel called “War Room Creative Ideas,” screenshots of which were shared with Semafor and whose authenticity was confirmed by a second source familiar with the campaign.
DeSantis staffers were gleeful about their efforts:
Screenshots of the “War Room” chat reviewed by Semafor included staffers praising a widely-derided and since-deleted video — originally posted on an anonymous account, “Ron DeSantis Fancams” — that included a version of the Sonnenrad, a symbol associated with Nazi Germany.
“This belongs in the Smithsonian,” wrote Kyle Lamb, the campaign’s director of research and data, before the video blew up in the campaign’s face.
It includes a special cameo by longtime DeSantis spox Christina Pushaw, who now runs his campaign’s rapid response team.
Indictment Watch
Today could be the day for the Jan. 6 indictment of Trump:
- The vibe …
Vibe at the courthouse is … anxious. Higher than usual security presence for this early in the morning. Indications of activity around the grand jury room.
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) August 1, 2023
- Politico: 2 more Trump indictments loom. Here are all the names to know.
The Interesting Case Of Yuscil Taveras
Lisa Rubin: Why the target letter to an uncharged Mar-a-Lago employee matters
Another Delay In The MAL Case
The arraignment of Carlos De Oliveira, the new co-defendant in the Mar-a-Lago documents case, was postponed while he finds local counsel.
A Damage Assessment
Tess Bridgeman and Ryan Goodman: National Security Implications of Trump’s Superseding Indictment In The MAL Case
Trump’s Jam-Packed Legal Calendar
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has signaled he may be open to moving Trump’s trial in the hush-money case to accommodate other pending prosecutions.
Journo Subpoenaed By Fani Willis
- AJC: Journalist who observed GOP electors subpoenaed in Fulton Trump case
- The Intercept: I Was Just Subpoenaed By Trump’s Georgia Grand Jury. Here’s What I’ll Tell Them.
Georgia Judge Shoots Down Absurd Trump Play
Donald Trump’s effort to use state courts to block Fani Willis’ criminal investigation of him foundered again.
Dennis Aftergut: Another Judge Smacks Down Another Frivolous Trump Case
NYT: Judge Rejects Trump’s Effort to Short-Circuit Georgia Election Case
Bloomberg: Trump Strikes Out in Effort to Suppress Georgia Grand Jury
Lindsey Graham Out There Delegitimizing Jury Trials
Quote For The Ages
It’s always unpleasant when you have to go in and tell your wife that, ‘By the way, tomorrow sometime I’m going to be indicted.’
–Donald John Trump
More On Trump’s Money Woes
A few additional tidbits from the latest FEC filings:
- Roger Sollenberger does the math and concludes that initial reports showing former President Trump with $40.2 million in legal expenses was exactly double the amount actually incurred.
The early news reports—sourced from “people familiar with the filing”—and the disclosure itself don’t provide enough data to show where the error lay. However, the seemingly neat halfway split could suggest an accounting mistake—or, alternatively, possibly unreliable or intentionally misleading sourcing
- NYT: After Paying Lawyers, Trump’s PAC Is Nearly Broke
- A refund of $60 million from Trump’s Make America Great Again super PAC to his Save America PAC is “believed to be larger than any other refund on record in the history of federal campaigns,” according to the NYT.
2024 Ephemera
- NYT: “A super PAC supporting Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign said on Tuesday that it had reserved more than $13 million in television and digital ads in Iowa and New Hampshire starting in August.”
The Heath Hens Are Coming Home To Roost
Massachusetts district attorney sends letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland demanding a federal investigation of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ scheme last year to ship migrants to Martha’s Vineyard.
Menendez Scandal Watch
NYT: A Senator’s New Wife and Her Old Friends Draw Prosecutors’ Attention
Federal Judge Blocks Idaho Abortion Prosecutions
Idaho Capital Sun: “A federal judge in Idaho has granted a preliminary injunction barring Idaho Attorney General Raúl Labrador from taking legal action against medical providers who refer patients across state lines for abortion care and denied Labrador’s request to dismiss the case.”
Phew, That Was Close
A shot off the post by Portugal in the 91st minute was all that stood between the U.S. women’s team and an epic elimination from the World Cup they came in heavily favored to win. As it is, the U.S. advances after surviving a draw with Portugal.
RIP Paul Reubens
The actor best known for creating Pee-wee Herman died at age 70 after a cancer diagnosis that he kept private.
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Where Things Stand: DeSperate DeSantis Tries To Appeal To … Someone On Abortion
As my colleague Josh Marshall notes below, today’s Times/Siena Poll gives us the clearest sign yet that, if you’re a Republican candidate and you’re not named Donald Trump, your grip on the Republican Party and the minds and hearts of GOP voters is tenuous at best and barely existent at worst.
Continue reading “Where Things Stand: DeSperate DeSantis Tries To Appeal To … Someone On Abortion”Massie Suggests Maybe DeSantis Should Get Indicted To Strengthen His 2024 Bid
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) — one of the few House Republicans to endorse Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s 2024 bid — joked that DeSantis should get indicted in order to boost his poll numbers among voters.
Continue reading “Massie Suggests Maybe DeSantis Should Get Indicted To Strengthen His 2024 Bid “Another Delay: New MAL Defendant’s Arraignment Postponed
New Mar-a-Lago defendant Carlos De Oliveira was unable to be arraigned on Monday, as he has not yet found an attorney in the Southern District of Florida to represent him, per reports from the courthouse.
Continue reading “Another Delay: New MAL Defendant’s Arraignment Postponed”By Every Imaginable Measure, Trump Crushing GOP Primary Race
In line with our recent theme, the Times is out today with a poll that is absolutely devastating for Ron DeSantis. But in truth it is devastating for every Republican candidate not named Donald Trump. It is only devastating for DeSantis inasmuch as he is the only candidate who appears to be in the race at all rather than running what amounts to a novelty or lifestyle campaign. According to the Times/Siena Poll, nationwide Trump has 54% of Republicans supporting him compared to 17% for DeSantis. The next five runners-up either have 2% or 3%. As I said, in practical terms, they’re not even in the race.
Is the fractured field preventing DeSantis from breaking through? Not really. If all the other candidates dropped out and gave DeSantis a clear one-on-one matchup, Trump would still be disemboweling him by a 62% to 31% margin.
Continue reading “By Every Imaginable Measure, Trump Crushing GOP Primary Race”