Dems Makes It Clear Early And Often Whose Fault A Government Shutdown Will Be

Any hope on House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s part of quietly passing a short-term spending bill to buy himself more time to wrangle his conference hardliners and avoid a shutdown was dashed on Monday by those very far-right members.

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Expelled Tennessee Three-er Justin Jones Will Introduce Gun Control Bill In Special Session

Tennessee state Reps. Justin Pearson of Memphis and Justin Jones of Nashville will be back on the House floor on Monday for their first legislative session since comfortably reclaiming their seats in an early August special election. 

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Argument To Disqualify Trump From The 2024 Ballot Enters The Republican Primary

The argument to bar Donald Trump from the 2024 election based on a section of the 14th Amendment has officially entered the bloodstream of the Republican primary. 

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How Not To Get Overinvested In The Trump Prosecutions

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Stay Focused On The Big Picture

Today’s Morning Memo has a blizzard of small- to medium-bore developments in the Trump cases. But I want to caution not to get too fixated on the ins and outs of the procedural wrangling in the case.

It’s somewhat of an irony that the due process afforded to a criminal defendant is itself designed to protect the rule of law, but they’re not a great proxy for the rule of law violations of which Trump is accused.

Take, for example, the protective orders in the Mar-a-Lago case, or the CIPA procedures in both federal cases against Trump, or the question of removal of the Georgia case to federal court. Each are significant in their own limited way, but a Trump win or loss on any of these preliminary matters doesn’t necessarily represent a win or loss for the rule of law. None of them stand on par with what Trump is accused of or the threat he poses to the rule of law.

The vindication of the rule of law takes time and isn’t always pretty. So take a deep breath. Keep your eye on the big picture. Don’t live and die on each procedural ruling. Don’t overinvest in the small stuff.

Meadows Moves To Dismiss Georgia Case

Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows quickly moved in federal court to have the Georgia election interference indictment against him dismissed. The weekend filing asserts that Meadows is immune friom state prosecution under the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause.

Meadows filed the motion to dismiss in the same federal venue where he is seeking to remove the state court case.

Drumbeat: Use The Disqualifications Clause Against Trump

The Week Ahead In Trump Prosecutions

  • NBC News: Law enforcement expects Trump to surrender at the Atlanta jail late this week. The deadline for him to surrender is Friday, Aug. 25.
  • ABC News: Trump legal team expected to confer with Atlanta DA Fani Willis’ office early this week about the terms of the former president’s bond package.

Jan 6 Miscellany

  • NBC News: “The widow of a police officer who died by suicide after he was assaulted during the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol has been found eligible for a federal benefits program for the families of fallen officers.”
  • EmptyWheel: Beryl Howell Scoffs That We Think We Know Anything About The Trump Investigations
  • Rolling Stone: Arizona Investigators ‘Aggressively’ Looking at Top Trump Ally Kelli Ward
  • Journal-Constitution: A look behind the scenes as country awaited Georgia grand jury’s decision
  • WaPo: FBI joins investigation of threats to grand jurors in Trump Georgia case

Chesebro At the Capitol On Jan 6

The NYT had its own version of CNN’s groundbreaking report that placed coup architect Ken Chesebro at the Capitol with Alex Jones on Jan. 6.

Double Whammy For Trump In MAL Case

  • Former Vice President Mike Pence on Sunday: “I was never made aware of any broad-based effort to declassify documents.”
  • Former Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has told special counsel Jack Smith’s investigators that he could not recall Trump ever declassifying broad sets of classified materials before leaving the White House, ABC News reported Sunday.

MAL Miscellany

  • Bloomberg: Trump and His Aide Nauta Claim DOJ ‘Improprieties’ in Using Two Grand Juries
  • DOJ wants the same protective order imposed on defendant Carlos De Oliveira as for Walt Nauta, preventing them from accessing classified documents in the case.

Proud Boy On The Lam

A Proud Boy convicted in a bench trial for his role on Jan. 6 disappeared ahead of his sentencing Friday. A warrant has been issued for the arrest of Chris Worrell, who had been under house arrest in Florida pending his sentencing. Prosecutors are seeking a 14-year sentence for him.

Trump Loses Bid To Delay E. Jean Carroll Case

A federal judge in New York rejected Donald Trump’s fourth attempt to pause E. Jean Carroll’s defamation case against him as a “delay” tactic.

Historic News Out Of Gitmo

A military judge has tossed the confession of Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, who is accused of being the mastermind of the 2000 bombing of the U.S.S. Cole, ruling that it was the product of illegal torture by the CIA:

James O’Keefe Under Criminal Investigation

Project Veritas founder and ousted CEO James O’Keefe is reportedly under investigation by the Westchester County district attorney’s office in suburban NYC.

Why Did Hunter Biden’s Plea Deal Collapse?

  • NYT: Inside the Collapse of Hunter Biden’s Plea Deal
  • Politico: In talks with prosecutors, Hunter Biden’s lawyers vowed to put the president on the stand

2024 Ephemera

  • NYT: Trump Plans to Skip G.O.P. Debate for Interview With Tucker Carlson
  • NYT: Inside Trump’s Decision to Skip the G.O.P. Debate
  • LATEST: Trump to skip all of the GOP debates.
  • New Iowa Poll:
    • Trump, 42%
    • DeSantis, 19%
    • Tim Scott, 9%
    • Nikki Haley, 6%
    • Mike Pence, 6%
    • Chris Christie, 5%
    • Vivek Ramaswamy, 4%
  • WSJ: Will Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) run for re-election in 2024?

Ugh

A 66-year-old woman was shot and killed Friday in Cedar Glen, California, allegedly by a man who objected to the LGBTQ+ Pride flag she was flying in front of the clothing store she owned.

Meanwhile, Over On Fox News …

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GOP Sen. Cassidy Says Trump Should Drop Out Of 2024 Race, Citing ‘Almost A Slam Dunk’ Case

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) said on Sunday that he thinks former President Donald Trump should drop out of the 2024 GOP presidential race.

“I think so,” Cassidy told CNN’s “State of the Union” when asked whether he thinks Trump should withdraw. “But obviously, that’s up to him. I mean, you’re just asking my opinion, but he will lose to Joe Biden if you look at the current polls.”

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The Plutocrats’ Low Energy Bark

Back in the Spring I wrote that I expected Ron DeSantis’s hopeless campaign to eventually be replaced by another GOP candidate memestock, and perhaps a succession of them. By this I mean another non-Trump candidate who gets hosed down with high-roller dollars, gets a lot of media attention and sugar-high narrative buzz like DeSantis did, and then inevitably crashes and burns because GOP voters actually want Donald Trump. The only surprise to me is that there hasn’t been any coalescence behind a new guy, even as DeSantis’s campaign has become little more than a running joke. The inevitable conclusion we can draw from that dog not barking is that the couple dozen or so billionaires who play a dominant role funding GOP campaigns have reconciled themselves to getting back on the Trump Train.

But not so fast?

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Georgia Indictment And Post-Civil War History Make It Clear: Trump’s Actions Have Already Disqualified Him From The Presidency

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

After three indictments of former President Donald Trump, the fourth one in Georgia came not as a surprise but as a powerful exposition of the scope of Trump’s efforts to remain in power despite losing the 2020 presidential election.

New conservative legal scholarship spells out how and why those actions – which were observed by the public over many months – disqualify Trump from serving in the presidency ever again. And our read of the Georgia indictment, as longtime lawyers ourselves, shows why and how that disqualification can be put into effect.

The key to all of this is the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, which states that “No person shall … hold any office, under the United States … who, having previously taken an oath … to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.” Trump took that oath at his inauguration on Jan. 20, 2017.

Both Trump’s Georgia indictment, and his federal indictment in Washington, D.C., cite largely public information – and some newly unearthed material – to spell out exactly how he engaged in efforts to rebel against the Constitution, and sought and gave aid and comfort to others who also did so.

Legal scholars William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, conservatives themselves and members of the conservative Federalist Society, have recently published a paper declaring that under the 14th Amendment, Trump’s actions render him ineligible to hold office.

We believe the Georgia indictment provides even more detail than the earlier federal one about how Trump’s actions have already disqualified him from office, and shows a way to keep him off the ballot in 2024.

A woman in a dark jacket standing at a lectern that bears a seal that says 'District Attorney' across the top.
Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, center, during a news conference, Aug. 14, 2023, in Atlanta, after the release of her indictment of former President Donald Trump and 18 others. AP Photo/John Bazemore

Disqualification is automatic

Trump’s supporters might argue that disqualifying him would be unfair without a trial and conviction on the Jan. 6 indictment, and perhaps the Georgia charges.

But Baude and Paulsen, using originalist interpretation – the interpretive theory of choice of the powerful Federalist Society and Trump’s conservative court appointees, which gives full meaning to the actual, original text of the Constitution – demonstrate that no legal proceeding is required. They say disqualification is automatic, or what’s known in the legal world as “self-executing.”

Recent public comments from liberal constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe and conservative jurist and former federal judge Michael Luttig – who has characterized the events before, during and since Jan. 6 as Trump’s “declared war on American democracy” – suggest an emerging bipartisan consensus supporting Baude and Paulsen.

Backed by history

This is not a theoretical bit of technical law. This provision of the 14th Amendment was, in fact, extensively used after the Civil War to keep former Confederate leaders from serving in the federal government, without being tried or convicted of any crime.

Few former Confederates were charged with crimes associated with secession, rebellion and open war against the United States. And most were pardoned by sweeping orders issued by President Andrew Johnson.

But even though they had no relevant convictions, former Confederates were in fact barred from office in the U.S.

In December 1865, several who had neither been convicted nor been pardoned tried to claim seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. But the House clerk refused to swear them in. It took an act of Congress – the 1872 Amnesty Act – to later restore their office-holding rights.

There is no requirement in the Constitution that the disqualification be imposed by any specific process – only that it applies to people who take certain actions against the Constitution.

A path through the states

For the U.S. in 2023, we believe the most realistic avenue to enforce the 14th Amendment’s ban on a second Trump presidency is through state election authorities. That’s where the Georgia indictment comes in.

State election officials could themselves, or in response to a petition of a citizen of that state, refuse Trump a place on the 2024 ballot because of the automatic 14th Amendment disqualification.

Trump would certainly challenge the move in federal court. But the recent disqualification proceedings against former North Carolina Congressman Madison Cawthorn provides a road map and binding legal precedent affirming the 14th Amendment as a valid legal ground for disqualification of a candidate for federal office.

The Georgia indictment against Trump and allies exhaustively details extensive acts of lying, manipulation and threats against Georgia officials, as well as a fraudulent fake elector scheme to illegally subvert the legitimate 2020 Georgia presidential vote tally and resulting elector certification.

Trump’s failure to accomplish what is tantamount to a coup in Georgia and other swing states set the stage for the violent insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021, that sought to achieve the same result – Trump’s fraudulent installation to a second term.

In fact, the Georgia scheme is included in Special Counsel Jack Smith’s federal indictment as one of the methods and means in “aid” of the larger Jan. 6 federal conspiracy against the United States.

Baude and Paulsen acknowledge that “insurrection and rebellion” are traditionally associated with forced or violent opposition. But we see the broader set of actions by Trump and his allies to subvert the Constitution – the Georgia vote count and fake elector scheme included – as part of a political coup d’etat. It was a rebellion.

Georgia as a bellwether

So what makes the Georgia scheme and indictment compelling for purposes of disqualifying Trump from the 2024 Georgia ballot?

There are minimally six aspects revealed in the latest indictment that we believe justify Georgia – under Section 3 of the post-Civil War Fourteenth Amendment – keeping Trump off the ballot:

  1. The racketeering scheme was a multifaceted attempt to subvert Georgia’s own part of the 2020 electoral process;
  2. The officials on the receiving end of the unsuccessful racketeering scheme were elected and appointed Georgia officials. …
  3. … whose actions to reject election subversion vindicated their own oaths to uphold the Constitution and laws of the United States as well as Georgia’s;
  4. Most of these officials were and are Republicans – including Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger, Governor Brian Kemp and former Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan;
  5. These officials will, in 2024 as in 2020, collectively determine who is qualified to be on Georgia’s presidential ballot; and
  6. These officials’ testimony, and related evidence, is at the heart of the proof of the Georgia racketeering case against Trump.

In other words, the evidence to convict Trump in the Georgia racketeering case is the same evidence, coming from the same Georgia officials, who will be involved in determining whether, under the 14th Amendment, Trump is qualified to be on the 2024 presidential ballot – or not.

Little if any additional evidence or proceedings are needed. The Georgia officials already hold that evidence, because much of it comes from them. They don’t need a trial to establish what they already know.

How could Trump avoid this happening? A quick trial date in Atlanta with an acquittal on all counts might do it, but this runs counter to his strategy to delay all the pending criminal cases until after the 2024 election.

With no preelection trial, there will likely be no Trump on the 2024 Georgia ballot, and no chance for him to win Georgia’s 2024 electoral college votes.

Once Georgia bars him, other states may follow. That would leave Trump with no way to credibly appear on the ballot in all 50 states, giving him no chance to win the electoral votes required to claim the White House.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

Trump’s Georgia Trial Is Latest Frontier In A Many-Decades-Long War Over Cameras In Courtrooms

Donald Trump’s fourth indictment out of Georgia distinguishes itself from the federal felony indictments in certain ways: its scope is broader, with 19 people indicted. Trump can’t just pardon himself if he’s reelected. 

And, the subsequent trial will likely be televised. 

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Don’t Be Surprised Biden Isn’t Getting Credit for A Good Economy (He’s Got Time)

One of Democrats’ pet peeves is that President Biden has not only overseen a robust economy with almost unprecedentedly low levels of unemployment, his policies actually have some decent claim to responsibility for that record. And yet he gets no credit for it. Not only has Biden been mired in low-40s approval for the last two years, his ratings on the economy are some of his weakest.

This is definitely annoying and certainly unfair (what isn’t?). But it shouldn’t seem new or unexpected. If you’ve been following politics closely for a few decades you’ll remember that Presidents Reagan, Clinton and Obama faced a very similar issue. All three presidents had a significant interval when the economy was demonstrably doing well and yet got zero credit for it or even any clear public recognition that the economy was in good shape.

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