Merchan to Trump: No More Fines, Only Jail If You Violate My Orders

NEW YORK — Judge Juan Merchan reiterated a sharp warning to Donald Trump on Monday morning, telling the former president that he is risking jail time if he continues to violate the court’s orders.

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Some Good Old-Fashioned (Alleged) Political Corruption

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Dem Rep Indicted For Two Alleged Bribery Schemes

Let’s take a break from the existential threat to democracy for a return to those thrilling days of yesteryear when run-of-the-mill political corruption was a big fat juicy target for prosecutors and muckrakers.

A federal grand jury in Houston has indicted Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), the last remaining anti-abortion-rights Democrat in the House, in two alleged bribery schemes: one to benefit Azerbaijan and the other a Mexico City bank.

Cuellar and his wife Imelda were both charged in the almost-readable 14-count indictment, which lays out in great detail the alleged scheme to bribe Cuellar in return for favorable treatment of Azerbaijan, as CNN reports:

Among those promises, prosecutors allege Cuellar agreed to influence US policy through a “series of legislative measures relating to Azerbaijan’s conflict with neighboring Armenia,” by giving a pro-Azerbaijani speech on the House floor, inserting language “favored by Azerbaijan” into legislation and committee reports, and advocating for “series of legislative measures relating to Azerbaijan’s conflict with neighboring Armenia.”

As for the alleged bank scheme:

The Texas Democrat also allegedly promised to influence financial regulations in a way that would benefit the Mexican bank and its affiliates, including by working to pressure the Executive Branch on anti-money laundering enforcement practices that “threatened” their business interest and supporting revisions to the criminal money-laundering statutes.

The charges in the two schemes, which came after a 2022 raid of Cuellar’s home and campaign office, largely parallel each other: conspiracy, bribery, honest services wire fraud, public official acting as an agent of a foreign principal, and money laundering.

Cuellar declared his innocence and intention to still seek re-election this year.

The Insurrectionist Party

Trump Trial Picks Back Up Today

TPM’s Josh Kovensky is back at the courthouse in Manhattan this morning as the third week of testimony in the hush-money trial gets underway. We’re closing in on the expected big witnesses – Michael Cohen and Stormy Daniels – but no clear timetable for when to expect their testimony.

Two highlights from Friday’s proceedings:

  • Judge Juan Merchan called Trump out in a way that was especially telling, given Trump’s years of spewing lies and deliberate misstatements. Let me set the stage briefly. After trial Thursday, Trump went before cameras and in response to a reporter’s question declared that Merchan’s gag order was preventing him from testifying at trial. Anyone with a brain knew that wasn’t true, and Trump’s false claim was quickly and widely debunked. But Merchan brought it up in court Friday morning before the jury came in, pointedly telling Trump that the gag order didn’t prevent him from testifying in his own defense and that the choice was Trump’s to make. Bluff called.
  • Hope Hicks’ reluctant testimony against Donald Trump was damaging enough that she broke down in tears after her direct examination.

A gentle reminder that juries are nearly impossible to read during trial and their verdicts are nearly impossible to reliably predict.

Keep Projecting

Trump continues to work furiously to blame Joe Biden for his legal travails, even the state court ones over which Biden doesn’t even have theoretical control. This weekend, Trump let loose in a private meeting: “These people are running a Gestapo administration.”

Big Ooops …

Recently hired RNC lawyer Charlie Spies has already resigned in the face of displeasure from Donald Trump that Spies was previously critical of the 2020 Big Lie charade.

‘Killed Like A Dog’

California man charged with threatening to kill Fani Willis in two separate YouTube live streams.

Keep An Eye On This

WSJ: Biden Races to Trump-Proof His Agenda

Kristi Noem’s Book Tour Is Going Great

Mike Johnson’s Speakership Is Safe For Now

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is expected to launch her bid this week to oust Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), but for a variety of reasons – support for Johnson from House Democrats, drama-fatigue among Republicans, and MTG’s own shortcomings – it’s not likely to go anywhere.

Abortion Watch

  • Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) says he would support ditching the filibuster to codify Roe v. Wade.
  • The Alabama Supreme Court denied a request for a rehearing on its ruling that frozen embryos are children under the law.
  • Why abortion bans in Florida and Arizona disproportionately affect the Latina population

‘An American Tragedy’

Esquire: Right-Wing Media and the Death of an Alabama Pastor

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A Poll Tidbit

One thing that bedevils current polling on the 2024 presidential race are basic questions about just who will show up and what the electorate will look like. That’s always central to polling and it becomes much more central when the race is tight. (If it’s a 45-55 race the precise composition of the electorate becomes less important.) But take the new Ipsos/ABC News poll out today. The headlines that are running focus on the number for Adults — which are Trump +2. Go to registered voters and it’s Biden +2. Go to likely voters and it’s Biden +4.

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A Poll On the Protests

It’s possible there have been other polls. But this one released by YouGov is the first I’ve seen since recent events at Columbia, UCLA and other colleges and universities around the country. It shows a very interesting picture — both that the protests are not very popular with the American public but also that — which of course we know — they’re highly complicated for Democratic candidates.

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‘SAVE OUR BEEF’ (SOB)

Ron DeSantis, I am sorry to tell you, has signed a law banning lab-grown beef in his state. “Florida is fighting back against the global elite’s plan to force the world to eat meat grown in a petri dish or bugs to achieve their authoritarian goals,” he said in a statement, gesturing toward the shadowy, unnamed cabal (The UN, perhaps? The World Economic Forum?) that will one day surely force us to eat bugs for its sick satisfaction.

“We will save our beef,” he added.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), exploring his newfound hobby of trolling progressives, agreed.

Like much coming out of the Florida legislature, this new law checks a few now-standard boxes: it is 1) a culture war provocation to, in the fantasies of its drafters, wring out some lib tears, 2) pushed by conservative lobbying interests and 3) a heavy-handed response to a problem that doesn’t exist.

Yet protecting beef, the food of patriots, has in recent years often been a cause du jour on the right, due to the baseless idea that environmentalists, vegans, and, probably, Antifa are on the cusp of banning it outright. A mini outrage cycle ensued in 2021 (explained here by Kate Riga) when the Daily Mail speculated falsely that Biden’s climate plan would “limit you to eat just one burger a MONTH.” Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Don Jr., and other such figures professed to be quaking with rage.

Anyway, it’s an exhausting time in the news, but spring has arrived in much of the U.S. Get out there and grill some meat — real, lab-grown, plant-based, or made-from-bugs. Whatever you want. Here are some other stories to sate your appetite until Monday.

  • In a new episode of her podcast Belaboring The Point, Kate Riga spoke with TPM alum Matt Shuham about how the war in Gaza is refracting domestically, from college protests to presidential politics.
  • Khaya Himmelman shares some insights from her reporting on election experts’ efforts to keep tabs on legislative power grabs when it comes to administering elections ahead of 2024.
  • And last, but certainly not least, Hunter Walker discusses Kimberly Guilfoyle’s new children’s book and her apparent vehement disdain for dog killers.

Let’s dig in.

— John Light & Nicole Lafond

The Anti-Twitter

It can be a harrowing thing, in this media environment, to confront a major, much-discussed event in which you’re not particularly steeped. 

On Twitter and its social media ilk, this stops approximately no one from sounding off. Many have swapped their COVID epidemiologist hats for constitutional law ones, habitually playing armchair psychologist and detective, all within a couple hundred characters. 

The war in Gaza is outside of my wheelhouse — it’s not in the universe of anything I’ve reported on, and has a complex and rich history of which I only know the contours. Coming in with a shallow foundation makes it hard to sort truth from spin, insight from clickbait. 

My conversation with HuffPost reporter (and TPM alum) Matt Shuham for my show Belaboring The Point this week was an antidote to the Twitter rabble. He’s reported from college campuses, and writes stories related to the war near-weekly. He has deeply considered and thoughtful takes on many facets: police reaction to the protests, why this is such a wedge for Democrats, how Donald Trump is positioning himself, what happens if Israel invades Rafah.

I hope you take a listen — I learned an awful lot.

— Kate Riga

Experts Keep An Eye On Legislative Power Grabs Ahead Of 2024

Ahead of 2024, election experts are keeping a watchful eye on power grab legislation that has the potential to disrupt the 2024 election. 

According to a new report from Voting Rights Lab — which tracks voting-related legislation — recently enacted legislation in eight states will give state legislatures greater authority in election administration and the certification process.

“We really saw, after the 2020 election, we saw a number of states introduce this type of legislation that gives the state legislatures themselves more power over the running of elections,” Liz Avore, senior policy advisor at Voting Rights Lab, told TPM in an interview. 

Since 2021, per data tracked by Voting Rights Lab, legislatures in 25 different states have introduced 82 total pieces of legislation that, if passed, would give power to the legislature to run elections. 

Georgia and North Carolina for example, Avore noted, both passed legislation that gives the legislature a role in determining who is on the board of elections. In 2021, Georgia passed SB202, giving Georgia legislators the authority to appoint the chair of the State of Election Board, which also has the power to remove and replace members of county election boards. 

“In Georgia, the bill gave the legislature the ability to appoint the authority to appoint the chair of State Board of Elections,” she explained. “So this, for the first time, meant that the State Board of Elections was beholden to this obviously very partisan legislature in the state.” 

Avore describes the legislation as a “a threat that’s hanging over the heads of county boards of elections.”

Similarly, in North Carolina, she added, Republican backed legislation known as Senate Bill 749 that passed last year, but is now blocked pending ongoing litigation, would also give the state legislature authority to appoint all the members of a county board of elections. 

— Khaya Himmelman

The Puppy ‘Princess’ Of Trumpworld

Believe it or not, this is not a story about Kristi Noem, the South Dakota governor who was rumored to be on former President Trump’s shortlist for potential running mates before she committed political suicide by admitting to having once killed a puppy in a book that leaked out last week. There’s actually another Trump campaign hanger on who has a puppy book of a far different sort. 

Kimberly Guilfoyle, the erstwhile Trump campaign adviser and fiancee of the former president’s son, Don Jr., is releasing a new children’s book entitled “The Princess & Her Pup.” According to the publisher’s website, the book is about the “sweet and caring ‘Princess Kimberly’” who is “afraid” and learns to be courageous after meeting a “little pup” named Jack. In a social media broadcast, Guilfoyle suggested it is a semi-autobiographical tale based on “how I was raised” and “a real-life rescue puppy that Don Jr. and I adopted.”

The book is being published by Brave Books, a publisher that has teamed up with right-wing influencers and political figures to make children’s books with conservative messages. Other highlights of their catalog include books by Dinesh D’Souza, retired Army general and conspiracy theorist Michael Flynn, and my personal favorite, “The Parrots Go Bananas!” by former Trump White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer, which features the residents of Mushroom Village learning about “fake information.” There’s also another happy puppy book by Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law, campaign adviser, and Republican National Committee co-chair. 

Guilfoyle’s book is special for so very many reasons but also because it is being sold along with a “Joe Bite’em Chew Toy” in a package that Brave calls “the perfect bundle for conservative canines and their owners.” Apparently, along with lessons about courage, this book can also teach children about seeing their political enemies ripped to shreds by dogs. 

In her social media broadcast, Guilfoyle pointed out that 10 percent of the proceeds are going to Furry Friends, a nonprofit dedicated to the welfare of abused animals. With clear anger in her voice, she also offered what was hard not to see as a loud message to Noem given the recent headlines. 

“Animal cruelty is a real thing and I’ve fought as a prosecutor taking cases and trying them as felonies for people that abused, and injured, and killed animals,” Guilfoyle said. “Together we can all make a difference.”

Looks like children aren’t the only ones Guilfoyle is eager to teach a lesson to.

— Hunter Walker

May The Fourth be With You

As most fans probably know, May 4th is Star Wars Day. The day is celebrated with a playful take on the iconic line “May the force be with you.” The first known use of the pun “May the 4th be with you” came a year after the release of Star Wars in 1978 and has been used by fans ever since. Although Lucasfilm does not recognize the holiday, it has become an annual celebration of all things Star Wars.

Scenes from the Kristi Noem Implosion

I assume you’re familiar with Kristi Noem/Cricket the executed dog discourse. But I have to flag this new controversy from her memoir, No Going Back. Noem appears to have made up a meeting with North Korea paramount leader Kim Jong Un.

Says Noem: “I remember when I met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. I’m sure he underestimated me.” The report casting doubt on that anecdote is from a local outlet, The Dakota Scout.

Continue reading “Scenes from the Kristi Noem Implosion”

Online Sleuths

I’ve had a few responses to last night’s post about the identity of the maurauding pro-Israel demonstrators/thugs who attacked the Gaza encampment on Tuesday night. There are clearly a lot of rumors circulating about it. The most interesting article I’ve seen so far is one that came out yesterday afternoon from the Los Angeles Times. It doesn’t include identities but reports on the team of online sleuths trying to identify them. Think of it as broadly similar to the “Sedition Hunters” group which has identified probably hundreds of people involved in the January 6th insurrection. The article doesn’t include any identities though it does seem like the sleuths have already identified or contingently identified some people.

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