Jack Smith Plans To Close Up Shop Before Trump’s Inauguration

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

The Collapse Of The Trump Prosecutions Is Almost Complete

Special Counsel Jack Smith is planning to wind down his two cases against Donald Trump and step down before Trump’s inauguration in January, the NYT reported.

The exact mechanism by which Smith winds down his cases remains unclear. It’s also not clear whether Smith will issue an exhaustive final report that provides new details on Trump’s alleged wrongdoing in the Jan. 6 case or the Mar-a-Lago documents fiasco.

This paragraph from the NYT report is almost unbelievable in it degree of naivete, though it’s hard to suss out whether that’s the newspaper’s, Attorney General Merrick Garland’s, or both:

The big question now, assuming Mr. Smith finishes the report on his current schedule, is whether Mr. Garland will release the findings before he leaves office, or defer the release to the Trump team, which might not make its contents public.

The thrust of the NYT piece suggests Smith is trying not to leave anything to chance by finishing what is left of his work before the new administration takes over. He also seems to be intentionally averting a situation in which Trump gets to follow through on his promise to fire Smith within “two seconds” of taking office.

Judge Pauses Hush Money Case

The only criminal case which managed to get to trial before the election is now stalled in light of the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision and Trump’s re-election. Prosecutors in Manhattan asked for and the judge granted a pause to assess next steps. They have until Nov. 19 to alert the court to their plans. Sentencing remains set for later in November.

Georgia RICO Case In Limbo

The Georgia RICO case is likely to proceed against Trump’s co-defendants without him. The Supreme Court rejected Tuesday Mark Meadows’ bid to remove the case to federal court.

Add Insult To Injury

As if the collapse of the Trump prosecutions wasn’t enough, the state judge overseeing the fake electors case in Arizona recused himself late Tuesday after it was reported that he had emailed fellow judges about defending Kamala Harris and equated the present moment with the failure to avert the Holocaust.

Happening Today

  • President-elect Trump is expected to visit Capitol Hill this morning.
  • Senate Republicans meet to elect a new leader for the first time since 2007, as Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is stepping down. The House GOP will also hold leadership elections today.
  • President Biden hosts President-elect Donald Trump at the White House, a resumption of a tradition that Trump abandoned when Biden defeated him in 2020.

The Trump II Clown Show

  • Fox News host Pete Hegseth: secretary of defense
  • Former Trump Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe: CIA director
  • Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR): U.S. ambassador to Israel
  • Republican campaign lawyer William McGinley: White House counsel
  • Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy: co-leaders of Trump’s new “Department of Government Efficiency”
  • Trump wants to bring back his tariff-loving former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer as White House “trade czar”
  • Is Trump really going to nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for a Senate-confirmed position?

‘Who The Fuck Is This Guy?’

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 04: Pete Hegseth celebrates Independence Day on ‘Fox & Friends Weekend’ on July 04, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by James Devaney/GC Images)

Of all of Trump’s announced nominees-to-be so far, Fox New host Pete Hegseth is probably the one most likely to run into opposition even among Senate Republicans. Light on substance, a history of controversial remarks, and a lack of relevant experience beyond being a veteran made Hegseth a sobering choice even by the low standards of Trump II.

EXCLUSIVE

WSJ:

The Trump transition team is considering a draft executive order that establishes a “warrior board” of retired senior military personnel with the power to review three- and four-star officers and to recommend removals of any deemed unfit for leadership.

If Donald Trump approves the order, it could fast-track the removal of generals and admirals found to be “lacking in requisite leadership qualities,” according to a draft of the order reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. But it could also create a chilling effect on top military officers, given the president-elect’s past vow to fire “woke generals,” referring to officers seen as promoting diversity in the ranks at the expense of military readiness.

Trump Transition Watch

  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) says Trump is already breaking the law by not abiding by the provisions of the Presidential Transition Act.
  • “President-elect Donald J. Trump’s demand that Senate Republicans surrender their role in vetting his nominees poses an early test of whether his second term will be more radical than his first.”–NYT
  • Democratic Govs. J.B. Pritzker (IL) and Jared Polis (CO) announced the formation of a new group called Governors Safeguarding Democracy to coordinate state opposition to Trump.

Good Thread

Dutch political scientist Catherine de Vries on the structural reasons we’re underestimating the risk of crony Orbanesque crony capitalism in a Trump II presidency.

2024 Ephemera

  • Success! Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) congratulates himself on the magical disappearance of noncitizen voting.
  • Historic: Only three states will have a party-split between their two senators, the lowest number since the direct election of senators began in 1914, a continuation of a long-term trend.
  • WI-Sen: “Republican Eric Hovde refused Tuesday to concede defeat in the Wisconsin Senate race, casting doubt on the results despite a lack of evidence of any wrongdoing in last week’s election.”–NBC News

BREAKING …

NYT:

Federal prosecutors have charged a man with disclosing classified documents that appeared to show Israel’s plans to retaliate against Iran for a missile attack earlier this year, according to court documents and people familiar with the matter.

The man, Asif W. Rahman, was indicted last week in federal court in Virginia with two counts of willful retention and transmission of national defense information. He was arrested by the F.B.I. on Tuesday in Cambodia and brought to federal court in Guam to face charges.

Federal Judge Blocks Louisiana’s 10 Commandments Law

“A federal judge in Louisiana blocked a state law on Tuesday that would have required the display of the Ten Commandments in every public school classroom.”–NYT

Carbon Emissions Reach New Record High

New data released today at COP29 in Azerbaijan show that global carbon emissions will set another new record in 2024. The new data from the Global Carbon Budget project confirms that the world is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement targets for reducing carbon emissions. Researchers who compiled the latest data said there is “no sign” that the world has reached peak carbon emissions yet.

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Trump’s Ambassador To Israel Believes Palestine Is A ‘Mythical Land’

Posted on by Hunter Walker

President-elect Donald Trump has been filling out his administration in the week since his landslide election. On Tuesday, he announced that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is his choice to serve as U.S. Ambassador to Israel. The pick is notable because Huckabee has a long history with the country, including statements that indicate he doesn’t necessarily believe in the two state solution to the country’s conflict with the Palestinian people. 

Continue reading “Trump’s Ambassador To Israel Believes Palestine Is A ‘Mythical Land’” →

Warren Says Trump Team Is ‘Already Breaking The Law’ By Ignoring Presidential Transition Act Rules

Posted on by Emine Yücel

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) said on Monday that President elect-Donald Trump and his transition team are already breaking the law specific to presidential transitions — by not adhering to it.

“Donald Trump and his transition team are already breaking the law,” Warren wrote in a social media post on Monday. “I would know because I wrote the law. Incoming presidents are required to prevent conflicts of interest and sign an ethics agreement.”

“This is what illegal corruption looks like,” she added.

Warren is referring to the Presidential Transition Act — a law that facilitates an orderly and peaceful transition of power by helping involved parties create an early and organized transition plan. The Trump team already ignored a pair of key preelection deadlines set to start transition activities — including signing a Memorandum of Understanding and submitting an official ethics plan for the transition into the new administration.

In response, lawmakers like Warren are warning of the impacts ignoring these deadlines can have on the country’s national security preparedness on Trump’s first day back in the Oval Office.

Warren’s declaration comes just weeks after Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, sent a letter to Trump and Vice President elect-JD Vance warning them of the dangers of their failure to enter into presidential transition agreements with the federal government.

“Breaking the precedent set by every other presidential candidate since 2010, you have rejected these resources and refused to commit to a smooth transition,” Raskin wrote in his letter dated Oct. 23. “It appears your decision may be at least partially driven by your intent to circumvent fundraising rules that put limits on private contributions on the transition effort and require public reporting. You may also be acting out of a more general aversion to ethics rules designed to prevent conflicts of interest in the incoming administration.”

“Alas, your recent public statements and your conduct four years ago provide cold comfort to the American people, who have sought to create continuity and legitimacy in the transition between administrations,” Raskin continued, warning the two that if the new administration is not ready to govern, “our nation’s adversaries may well see and take advantage of the situation.”

“I strongly urge you to expeditiously sign both MOUs and submit your ethics plan,” he added.

Meanwhile, a Trump adviser tried to downplay the skipped deadlines, saying it is “not at all a concern,” according to CNN. 

The adviser also told CNN that Trump intends to sign the ethics pledge — a part of the law in question — but did not specify when he will do so. Instead, he pressed that the main priority for the Trump team is to select and vet candidates for Cabinet positions. 

Johnson Congratulates Himself On The Magical Disappearance Of Non-Citizen Voting

Posted on by Khaya Himmelman

For months now, Republicans have been setting the stage to cry voter fraud in the event of a possible Donald Trump loss — warning specifically about the supposed dangers of non-citizens voting. 

However, unsurprisingly, outrage over non-citizens supposedly voting en masse for Democrats, and general, run-of-the-mill claims of voter fraud, have practically disappeared since Trump’s victory in last week’s election. 

Continue reading “Johnson Congratulates Himself On The Magical Disappearance Of Non-Citizen Voting” →

The Aftermath of Competitive Hyperbole

Posted on by Josh Marshall

I think this post will displease or even enrage some readers. But I have to write it. I’ve spent the last several days thinking through various things Democrats will need to do to confront and challenge the incoming Trump administration and things Democrats should now do differently. That is not only with what they’ve learned from this campaign and defeat but with a hand now free of the locked-in realities of Joe Biden’s incumbency and the first two years especially of his administration. That to-do list is critical to get right. The tasks are real, super-important and Democrats need to get down to work on them right away.

But for many people, the dire consequences of Trump’s election are distorting our understanding of just how he was elected. They’re not the same thing. And the difference matters. I see repeated headlines about how the Democratic Party and its political coalition have been “shattered” or are now in “shambles.” I’m having an, I hope, friendly email exchange with one reader who told me this morning that he felt no one, including TPM, prepared him for Trump’s “overwhelming victory.” Analysis pieces in the big papers state as a given that it will take years or possibly decades of rebuilding for the party to recover.

I really have no choice but to say that all of this is immense and innumerate bullshit. This isn’t even a subjective point. What we have is a bout of escalating competitive hyperbole in which the wild overstatement keeps getting ramped up because no one is willing to step up and state the obvious for fear of being shouted down as being in denial or naive or not recognizing the gravity of the crisis or whatever. Without anyone willing to push back, the chorus just keeps moving to more and more over-the-top claims. A party with a bit more self-respect and spine would be less bowled over by claims from the opposition and a press in the habit of portraying Democrats in the most negative terms. But here we are.

Continue reading “The Aftermath of Competitive Hyperbole” →

At Manhattan DA’s Request, Judge Pauses Trump Hush Money Case

Posted on by Josh Kovensky

In a sign of just how much Donald Trump’s election has overwhelmed his criminal cases, Manhattan prosecutors this weekend asked the judge in his hush money case to pause it while they assess the implications of Trump becoming president-elect.

Continue reading “At Manhattan DA’s Request, Judge Pauses Trump Hush Money Case” →

Trump II’s Big Talk And Overt Threats Have A Power Of Their Own

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

The Call-And-Cower Response Cycle

As we observe the Trump II transition kicking into overdrive, MAGA loyalists are talking big, boasting of their newly acquired power, and spewing threats against all the usual suspects but in a more robust and full-throated way now that they have power back.

It sets up a dynamic that we saw the first time around, but presents more acutely in Trump II. The power to cow itself bestows more power on those doing the intimidating. It creates a call-and-cower response cycle that emboldens the aggressor, humiliates the victim, and demoralizes the opposition.

Note the pattern as we make our way through the lengthy list of developments over the long holiday weekend …

Trump Wants GOP Senate Under His Thumb

Trump insisted publicly that whichever senator is elected Senate majority leader “must agree” to allow him to make recess appointments bypassing the usual advice and consent process. The leading candidates for majority leader for the most part quickly acquiesced.

Meanwhile, Trump allies are pushing him to take the unprecedented step of getting involved in the Senate majority leader race by scuttling the candidacy of Sen. John Thune (R-SD), the current No. 2 Republican.

Pentagon Girds For Trump

“Pentagon officials are holding informal discussions about how the Department of Defense would respond if Donald Trump issues orders to deploy active-duty troops domestically and fire large swaths of apolitical staffers, defense officials told CNN.”–CNN

DOJ Hunkers Down For Trump II

“A collective sense of dread has taken hold at the Department of Justice, which drew Donald Trump’s rage like no other part of the federal government during his campaign.”–Politico

Chasing Down Jan. 6 Rioters While There’s Still Time

“The Justice Department plans to focus on arresting the ‘most egregious’ Jan. 6 rioters — particularly those who committed felony assaults on law enforcement officers but have not yet been arrested — in the remaining 72 days before President-elect Donald Trump is back in the White House, a law enforcement official told NBC News this week.”–NBC News

‘We Will Put Your Fat Ass In Prison’

An awful attack on New York Attorney General Letitia James from Mike Davis, a stalwart of the Trump II camp that wants revenge and retribution against those whom he claimed engaged in “lawfare” against Donald Trump. Davis is a former clerk to Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and former staffer to Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA).

Trump Staffs Up

The initial round of announcements of key Trump II administration officials confirmed the expected emphases on loyalty and hardcore anti-immigration bona fides:

  • Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL): secretary of state
  • Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD): secretary of the Department of Homeland Security
  • Former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY): EPA administrator
  • Rep. Elsie Stefanik (R-NY): UN ambassador
  • Stephen Miller: deputy White House chief of staff
  • Former acting head of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency Tom Homan: White House “border czar”

2024 Ephemera

  • GOP on verge of retaining the House: “House Republicans only need to win one more seat of the remaining seven uncalled toss-up races to retain the majority.”–Punchbowl
  • AZ-Sen: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) prevails over election-denier extraordinaire Kari Lake (R), leaving Republicans with a 53-seat Senate majority.
  • Sweep: Donald Trump flipped Arizona, giving him victories in all seven swing states.

Puzzling Over The Gender Gap

Kamala Harris won a majority of female voters but by a narrower margin over Trump than Joe Biden did in 2020, despite Dobbs.

Feds Reveal Alleged Iranian Plot To Assassinate Trump

“Iranian agents plotted to assassinate Donald Trump before he was re-elected as president, the Justice Department revealed Friday in a case that underscores the barrage of security threats Trump faces even before he takes office.”–WSJ

Sotomayor Not Going Anywhere

“Despite calls from some liberal activists for Justice Sonia Sotomayor to step down while Democrats can fill her seat before political power changes hands in January, she has no plans to retire from the Supreme Court, people close to the justice said.”–WSJ

Can SCOTUS Stand Up To Trump Even If It Wants To?

Georgetown law professor Stephen Vladeck:

Based on Mr. Trump’s first four years in the White House, it stands to reason that there will be at least some cases in which his behavior goes too far for a majority of the current court — just as there have been cases in which even this court has pushed back against the excesses of Republican governors or conservative lower courts. If the court rules against Mr. Trump and he tells the justices to pound sand, what will happen then?

Auditioning For Supreme Court?

Judge James Ho of the Fifth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals gave an interview to The Volokh Conspiracy in which he asserted a vast new exception to birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants that has not been previously recognized under U.S. law:

[B]irthright citizenship obviously doesn’t apply in case of war or invasion. No one to my knowledge has ever argued that the children of invading aliens are entitled to birthright citizenship. And I can’t imagine what the legal argument for that would be. It’s like the debate over unlawful combatants after 9/11. Everyone agrees that birthright citizenship doesn’t apply to the children of lawful combatants. And it’s hard to see anyone arguing that unlawful combatants should be treated more favorably than lawful combatants.

Keep On Your Radar …

The judge overseeing Trump’s hush money case in New York state is expected to issue a ruling today on whether the conviction can still stand in light of the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision.

Women Are Stockpiling Abortion Pills

“Aid Access, one of the largest suppliers of abortion pills, reported receiving 10,000 requests for the medication in the 24 hours after the election was called for the Republican nominee early Wednesday — roughly 17 times the 600 that the organization typically gets in a day.”–WaPo

Remnick Ruminates

New Yorker editor David Remnick:

An American retreat from liberal democracy—a precious yet vulnerable inheritance—would be a calamity. Indifference is a form of surrender. Indifference to mass deportations would signal an abnegation of one of the nation’s guiding promises. Vladimir Putin welcomes Trump’s return not only because it makes his life immeasurably easier in his determination to subjugate a free and sovereign Ukraine but because it validates his assertion that American democracy is a sham—that there is no democracy. All that matters is power and self-interest. The rest is sanctimony and hypocrisy. Putin reminds us that liberal democracy is not a permanence; it can turn out to be an episode.

GOOD READ

Molly McKew, on Russia and what democracies can do to push back against the rise of autocratic powers:

Democracies have not adapted to the speed of this century, and as long as we fail to meet this challenge, political forces that bring autocratic tactics to democratic systems will continue to win elections.

Speed and decisiveness are what autocracies — and private business — have that democracies usually do not. They are out-competing democracy, and increasingly they are moving toward the same unified endpoint.

Helene Felled Vast Areas Of North Carolina’s Forests

BUNCOMBE COUNTY, NC – OCTOBER 28 Janice Barnes walks through downed trees left by Hurricane Helene near her mountain cabin in Buncombe County, NC, on Monday, October 28, 2024. (Ted Richardson/For The Washington Post via Getty Images)

The WaPo has produced a close, well-done examination of Hurricane Helene’s impact on North Carolina’s forest canopy.

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First Hints

Posted on by Josh Marshall

The first picks for Trump’s Cabinet show more commonality between terms one and two than some might have expected. None of these are “power” positions in a Trump administration. Those are going to be in the White House, the Pentagon, Justice, CIA and Treasury. But Stefanik, Zeldin and Rubio aren’t ideologues either. They’re mostly loyalists, people who remade themselves not so much in Trump’s image as reflexive supporters. Marco Rubio is less a hardliner than a thin and insubstantial slice of soap. What he is mostly is servile, soft. At least in these positions that seems to be what Trump wants – people who’ve already been broken in.

Continue reading “First Hints” →

Reckonings of Contempt

Posted on by Josh Marshall

You can’t turn a virtual page these days without finding a new article or column or editorial forecasting or demanding a “reckoning” for Democrats after Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris for the presidency. In some respects that’s as it should be. It was a critical election and Democrats came up short. So it’s important to ask why and come up with good answers to launch back into the fight against Trumpism and everything it represents. But it would be my failure if I didn’t point out that many of these reckoningers, let’s call them, are born of the same tilted playing field we discussed leading up to this defeat and played some role in creating it.

Continue reading “Reckonings of Contempt” →