High Profile DOJ Alum Push Back At Barr’s Flynn Shenanigans

Two former Justice Department officials who were directly involved in the Russia investigation have now spoken out publicly against Attorney General Bill Barr’s decision to drop the Michael Flynn case.

Continue reading “High Profile DOJ Alum Push Back At Barr’s Flynn Shenanigans” →

The Bailout Is Working — For The Rich

This story first appeared at ProPublica. ProPublica is a Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative newsroom. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

Ten weeks into the worst crisis in 90 years, the government’s effort to save the economy has been both a spectacular success and a catastrophic failure.

The clearest illustration of that came on Friday, when the government reported that 20.5 million people lost their jobs in April. It marked a period of unfathomable pain across the country not seen since the Great Depression. Also on Friday, the stock market rallied.

The S&P 500 is now up 30% from its lows in mid-March and back to where it was last October, when the outlook for 2020 corporate earnings looked sunshiny. Companies have sold record amounts of debtin recent weeks for investment-grade companies. Junk bonds, historically dodgy during an economic swoon, have roared back.

If you’re looking for investors’ verdict on who has won the bailout, consider these returns: Shares of Apollo Group, the giant private equity firm, have soared 80% from their lows. The stock of Blackstone, another private equity behemoth, has risen 50%.

The reason: Asset holders like Apollo and Blackstone — disproportionately the wealthiest and most influential — have been insured by the world’s most powerful central bank. This largess is boundless and without conditions. “Even if a second wave of outbreaks were to occur,” JPMorgan economists wrote in a celebratory note on Friday, “the Fed has explicitly indicated that there is no dollar limit and no danger of running out of ammunition.”

Many aspects of the coronavirus bailout that assist individuals or small businesses, meanwhile, are short-term or contingent. Aid to small businesses comes with conditions on what they can do with the money. The sums allocated by the CARES Act for stimulus and expanded unemployment insurance are vast by historical standards. But the relief they provide didn’t prevent tens of millions from losing their jobs. The assistance runs out in weeks, and the jobless live at the mercy of a divided Congress, which will decide whether that help gets extended and, if so, for how long.

It’s a bailout of capital. “If the theory is: Let’s make sure companies are solvent and the workers will be OK, that theory could work. But it’s a trickle-down theory,” said Lev Menand, a former New York Fed economist who now teaches at Columbia Law School.

We do know one thing, he said: “It worked for asset holders.”

The Fed’s efforts, universally praised for their boldness and speed, have come in two stages. First, in February and March, the central bank shored up capital market “liquidity,” which marks how willing investors are to buy and sell. The central bank role is to be a “lender of last resort,” working through banks so they can get money to companies and people.

That expanded in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. The Federal Reserve, historically viewed as reserved Brahmins who controlled the money supply, stepped into a new job: “the dealer of last resort,” in the words of economist Perry Mehrling. The Fed bought assets and it bailed out the shadow banking system. “Shadow banking” takes many forms and can mean many things, but generally it describes activities that look like classic banking — taking in deposits and lending out that money — that are undertaken by, for example, a private-equity fund or another institution outside the traditional system of federally insured deposits.

The beneficiaries of this Federal Reserve help in 2008 were money market funds, and short-term lending markets for corporations and financial institutions such as the commercial paper and repurchase agreement markets — all of which had seized up and stopped functioning. Then this year, the Fed came to the rescue of these markets again, doing “such a great job with this that everyone has forgotten this has happened,” Menand said.

Those Fed moves were necessary. But they should not be consigned to the memory hole.

Everyone learned in 2008 that those corners of the markets were vulnerable, but the lessons didn’t stick, apparently. The government tried to install new rules governing different pockets of these markets in piecemeal fashion; financial interests bitterly opposed much of that new regulation. And now, just a short 12 years later, the Fed had to step in to protect these markets and interests once again.

The second stage of the Fed’s extraordinary rescue goes beyond liquidity. It has said it will buy assets it has never bought before. For almost 100 years, the Fed purchased only government bonds. Now it has announced a wide variety of programs to buy various forms of corporate and other debt, either by direct lending, by buying bonds, or buying loans.

The mere announcement that the Fed would do this had an immediate effect, spurring the boom in corporate borrowing.

The Fed didn’t stop with the most solid, safest corporate stalwarts. In early April, it also announced something unprecedented. The central bank said it would buy junk bonds, debt issued by fragile companies, many of which already have crushing debt loads. Sure enough, junk bonds roared back and their cousins, leveraged loans, revived.

In doing so, the Fed backstopped the riskiest markets in the world. The most dangerous investments in the world, it should go without saying, are not owned by middle- and working-class Americans, to whom every politician pledges fealty. No, they are owned by the most risk-seeking investors in the world, the ones that need the highest returns: private equity firms and hedge funds.

But wait, there’s more. The riskiest markets only got more so during the long boom era of the last decade. In the past several years, regulators — especially the former chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen — repeatedly worried that companies had too much debt. They were concerned how lenders had raced to ease conditions, or covenants, on their loans to elbow out their competitors to fork over money, just as they had in the run-up to 2008. At a moment of record profits, the ratio of corporate debt to earnings steadily rose, while corporate stock buybacks hit records. Those cautions were treated like a parental exhortation to their kids to get off TikTok and brush their teeth.

Yet after all that worry, the Fed then stepped in to save the wealthiest speculators. The mere word that the Fed will make some purchases in this market has swelled these investors’ net worth. Meanwhile, images of mile-long food lines have become common.

In some ways, it’s unfair to blame the Fed. The speed of its actions and its ability to deploy groundbreaking new approaches mask the paucity of its tools. It must work through the capital markets. And only through credit, at that. The Fed has no ability to help regular people directly. “It’s really ill-suited to get money to where it’s most needed and on terms that are the most appropriate,” said Kate Judge, a Columbia law professor and expert in the Federal Reserve.

The House and Senate have much greater powers, the power of the purse and of legislation. Congress could have passed laws that directed help in different ways. Europe has essentially nationalized payrolls, a much more direct form of aid to people who have lost the ability to work. But Congress has been reluctant to use sufficient fiscal measures going back to the 2008 rescue.

What happens if the economy doesn’t come back soon? The Fed’s saddle-ʼem-with-more-debt approach is premised on a sharp and rapid recovery. The virus burns itself out, people go back to work, they buy and sell, and everything snaps back. Companies pay back their loans, and all is forgiven and forgotten.

If the health crisis does not pass quickly, or if the economy does not roar back, the Fed’s actions might prove inadequate. But investors shouldn’t be too worried. They have been taught they can count on the government.

Do you have access to information about corporate, financial or governmental malfeasance during the pandemic? Email jesse.eisinger@propublica.org or reach him on Signal at 718-496-5233. Here’s how to send tips and documents to ProPublica securely.

Filed under:

 

Coronavirus Overwhelms Ukraine’s Hospitals Even With Low Number Of Cases

CHERNIVTSI, Ukraine (AP) — Medical workers in homemade protective masks and suits, with plastic bags over their shoes. A hospital intended for 150 coronavirus patients now holding 250. A lack of filtration systems that forces autopsies to be done outside, under the trees, instead of in the hospital morgue.

Ukraine’s troubled health care system has been overwhelmed by COVID-19, even though it has reported a relatively low number of cases — 15,648 infections and 408 deaths as of Monday.

Continue reading “Coronavirus Overwhelms Ukraine’s Hospitals Even With Low Number Of Cases” →

Singapore Battles Massive Wave Of Coronavirus Infections

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) — Weeks after two of his roommates were diagnosed with COVID-19, Mohamad Arif Hassan says he’s still waiting to be tested for the coronavirus. Quarantined in his room in a sprawling foreign workers’ dormitory that has emerged as Singapore’s biggest viral cluster, Arif says he isn’t too worried because neither he nor his eight other roommates have any symptoms.

Still, the 28-year-old Bangladeshi construction worker couldn’t be blamed if he were more than just a bit concerned.

Continue reading “Singapore Battles Massive Wave Of Coronavirus Infections” →

Sen. Alexander Will Quarantine Self After Aide Tests Positive For COVID-19

Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) will be going into quarantine after one of his staffers tested positive for COVID-19 on Sunday, the senator’s office announced.

Continue reading “Sen. Alexander Will Quarantine Self After Aide Tests Positive For COVID-19” →

Countries Slowly Reopen While Trying Not To Spark New Wave Of Infections

PARIS (AP) — Plastic spacing barriers and millions of masks appeared Monday on the streets of Europe’s newly reopened cities, as France and Belgium emerged from lockdowns, the Netherlands sent children back to school and Spain let people eat outdoors.

All faced the delicate balance of trying to restart their battered economies without causing a second wave of coronavirus infections.

Continue reading “Countries Slowly Reopen While Trying Not To Spark New Wave Of Infections” →

UK Government’s ‘Go To Work’ Advice Sparks Confusion

LONDON (AP) — Employees, business owners, police and trade unions in Britain expressed confusion Monday after the government switched from telling workers to stay at home to urging them to return to work — but preferably without getting near other people or using public transport.

In a televised statement Sunday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson extended most of the draconian restrictions on daily life imposed March 23 to slow the spread of the coronavirus, including closing schools, restaurants and most shops. He also sketched out how the lockdown will be eased in stages if the number of infections in the U.K. continues to fall.

Britain’s official coronavirus death toll stands at almost 32,000, the highest in Europe and the second-highest in the world after the United States. While the number of new deaths and infections is falling, Johnson said it would be “madness” to loosen restrictions so much that there is a second spike in coronavirus cases.

But he made a dramatic shift in tone on the economy, saying “anyone who can’t work from home, for instance those in construction or manufacturing, should be actively encouraged to go to work.”

He said workplaces should observe social distancing and people should avoid public transport if possible, traveling “by car or even better by walking or bicycle.”

Critics said the advice was confusing, hard to follow and potentially dangerous — especially in a big city like London, where most people do not own cars and where subways are operating at a fraction of their usual capacity.

After Johnson spoke, London Major Sadiq Khan issued a statement stressing that the lockdown had not been lifted and saying Londoners “must not use public transport for any unnecessary journeys.”

London’s Waterloo station, usually the country’s busiest train hub, remained largely quiet Monday morning but commuters venturing back to work said they worried that services would soon be thronged again.

“I am nervous about going back, because I have a family and they have been isolating since the start. I feel like I am now putting them at risk,” said Peter Osu, 45, who was returning to work at a construction site for the first time since the lockdown started.

“People were sitting close together on the (subway) and others were having to stand,” he said. “There was no 2 meter spacing. This is the first day. Can you imagine what it’s going to look like by the end of the week?”

Johnson’s Conservative government said more details of the “road map” out of lockdown would come in a 50-page document being published Monday. But already Johnson was at odds with the leaders of Scotland and Wales, who decried his decision to replace the “Stay at Home” slogan that has been used for seven weeks with one urging people to “Stay Alert.”

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she didn’t know what the new advice meant and asked the U.K. government not to promote such a “vague and imprecise” message in Scotland.

In his statement, Johnson also said within weeks the U.K. would impose a 14-day quarantine on people arriving by air, though it is unclear how it will be enforced. Travelers from Ireland and France will be exempt.

The prime minister, who was hospitalized last month with a serious bout of COVID-19, said if the outbreak continues to recede, primary school pupils could start to return to class beginning June 1, and some outdoor cafes and restaurants might reopen in July, along with movie theaters and places of worship.

He offered modest changes that will take effect Wednesday only in England. People may take unlimited amounts of exercise, rather than just one bout a day, and will be allowed to sit and sunbathe outdoors. Driving to a park or beach will be permitted, and golf courses and tennis courts can reopen — though people can only play sports with members of their own household.

But confusion reigned over whether people could now meet up with friends or relatives outdoors as long as they stayed 2 meters (6.5 feet) apart.

Police organizations said the fuzzy rules made enforcement harder.

“Police officers will continue to do their best, but their work must be based on crystal clear guidance, not loose rules that are left open to interpretation — because that will be grossly unfair on officers, whose job is already challenging,” said John Apter, national chairman of the Police Federation of England and Wales.

___

Follow AP pandemic coverage at http://apnews.com/VirusOutbreak and https://apnews.com/UnderstandingtheOutbreak

China Reports Another Rise In COVID-19 Cases

BEIJING — China reported another rise in coronavirus cases Monday, amid government reminders for people to “remain alert and step up personal protection against the virus.”

The warning from Mi Feng, spokesperson for the National Health Commission, came as 17 new cases were reported, up from 14 the day before, which had represented the first double-digit increase in 10 days. Of the 17 new cases, seven were listed as imported, while five were in the city of Wuhan, where a strict lockdown was lifted last month.

Continue reading “China Reports Another Rise In COVID-19 Cases” →

Trump Goes Wild With ‘Obamagate’ Conspiracy Theory After Obama Slams Flynn Case Withdrawal

President Donald Trump littered his Twitter feed with posts about an “Obamagate” conspiracy theory all throughout Sunday baselessly accusing former President Barack Obama of sabotaging Trump’s presidency with the investigation of Michael Flynn.

Continue reading “Trump Goes Wild With ‘Obamagate’ Conspiracy Theory After Obama Slams Flynn Case Withdrawal” →

5 Points on How The SCOTUS Case To Terminate Obamacare Would Hobble COVID-19 Response

For over a decade, Republicans have repeatedly sought to demolish the Affordable Care Act. But the anti-Obamacare case currently in front of the Supreme Court is the first time they’ve tried to do so amid a pandemic.

Continue reading “5 Points on How The SCOTUS Case To Terminate Obamacare Would Hobble COVID-19 Response” →