For years there’s been a running conversation in the United States about whether the country is heading towards a second Civil War. That conversation often stumbles on the fact that America’s profound divides today don’t line up on any clear regional lines, despite what the maps of presidential election results might seem to show. Divisions are at best intra-regional. So any kind of replay of the 1860s is highly unlikely. But of course plenty of civil wars either had no clear regional breakdown or at least don’t start with one — the Spanish Civil War, the Russian Civil War, the Chinese Civil War, the Syrian Civil War. Before going further I should note that as a general matter I’m a “no” on this question of “are we headed to a second American civil war?” But events yesterday and those of last month suggest the possibility of something more realistic and still ominous.
Let’s quickly review the details: yesterday in New Orleans we had what appears to be an ISIS-inspired lone wolf terrorist attack. The FBI is now discounting initial suspicions that others might be involved. Events like these happened with some frequency in the U.S. for a number of years. But there’s been some respite, more or less since the Pandemic. Then a Tesla Cybertruck exploded in front of a Trump building in Las Vegas. The driver was killed and the car appeared to be filled with high-powered fireworks and gas canisters. It’s still not clear what this incident was about. That’s not remotely how you’d build a car bomb if you wanted to injure anyone. But it certainly doesn’t seem like an accident either.
President-elect Donald Trump falsely blamed illegal immigration and claimed personal vindication in the violent attack that killed 15 New Year’s revelers in New Orleans.
In a Truth Social post the morning of the attack, Trump manufactured hysteria over “criminals coming in” to the country. Trump continued to falsely blame “Biden ‘Open Border’s Policy’” Thursday morning, long after incorrect reports – that the rented truck in the New Orleans attack was driven across the border from Mexico – had been debunked.
The alleged attacker was a native born U.S. citizen and Army veteran from Texas.
In both posts, Trump crowed that the attack proved him correct.
Death Toll In New Orleans Attack Stands At 15
A Texas man killed 15 people and injured more than 30 others when he drove a rented pickup truck flying an Islamic State flag down Bourbon Street early New Year’s Day.
Bourbon Street was closed to vehicular traffic, but the culprit managed to plow through temporary barricades in place while a permanent system of bollards were being replaced with a newer system.
Shamsud-Din Jabbar, the alleged culprit in the attack, was killed in a shootout with police.
Meanwhile, In Las Vegas …
Investigators are exploring whether there’s any link between the New Orleans attack and the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck at the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas on New Year’s Day. The driver of the vehicle was killed in the incident:
WATCH: The moment a Tesla Cybertruck exploded this morning in front of Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas
The Cybertruck was reportedly rented in Colorado through the Turo app, the same method used to obtain the truck in the New Orleans attack. The FBI and ATF are “conducting operations and searches in Colorado Springs” as part of the investigation, ABC News reported.
Mike Johnson’s Narrow Path To The Speakership
With Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) lined up as a firm no against re-electing Rep. Mike Johnson as House speaker, all eyes turn to Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX). The loss of two GOP votes should be enough to deny Johnson election as speaker, meaning that he has a narrow path to victory and avoiding another prolonged stretch of chaos in which the House GOP majority is unable to elect anyone as speaker. The first vote on speaker is expected Friday.
Quote Of The Day
“If they thought I had no Fs to give before, I definitely have no Fs to give now.”–Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who is opposed to Rep. Mike Johnson’s reelection as speaker of the House
House GOP To Make It Harder To Remove Speaker
Under a new rules package unveiled this week, House Republicans would raise the bar for removing the speaker by increasing the number of members required to trigger a motion to vacate from one to nine.
Proof Of Citizenship To Vote Is A Top GOP Priority
Among the first dozen bills the House GOP majority is aiming to pass in the new Congress is one to require proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.
Taking On Big Tax Prep
TPM’s Hunter Walker: Ron Wyden’s Fight For Free Tax Filing Is A Blueprint For Future Democratic Battles Against Trump
Biden To Honor Liz Cheney
In a White House ceremony today, President Biden will bestow the Presidential Citizens Medal, the second highest honor for American civilians, on 20 recipients, including Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) and former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), who served as chair and vice chair, respectively, of the House Jan. 6 committee.
Many of Biden’s appointees … succeeded other like-minded judges, meaning that the overall ideological dynamics didn’t change much.
Where Biden made a lasting impact, however, was in appointing judges that represent a broader swath of America. …
Another Biden priority was selecting nominees with a broader array of professional experience, including by appointing former federal public defenders to a judiciary that has been disproportionately represented by former prosecutors.
Scathing Reviews Of Chief Justice’s Annual Report
Chief Justice John Roberts issued a spicier-than-usual annual report on the judiciary,
“The chief justice said nothing about the Supreme Court’s own actions that might have contributed to a diminished public standing, including a string of conservative decisions that independents and Democrats consider partisan rather than principled and a refusal to adopt an enforceable code of conduct despite ethical clouds surrounding some justices’ behavior.”–WSJ
“[T]he nine pages from Roberts come across as more of a lashing out than a reasoned report. … The end result is a chilling, if vague, condemnation by Roberts of the widespread opposition to the extremism exhibited by the high court in its decisions and the ethical failings of justices responsible for those decisions.”–Chris Geidner
“[T]he Chief Justice’s report not only fails to even acknowledge the public discourse; it takes a position that is either wholly indifferent or remarkably oblivious to it—offering a remarkably un-nuanced view of when criticism crosses the line into ‘illegitimate activity.’ In the process, the report also neglects to acknowledge what is, in my view, an even greater threat to judicial independence today: the continuing erosion of public faith in the courts that’s reflected in (but not caused by) much of the good-faith criticism that is out there. In those respects, at least, it’s a remarkably tone-deaf missive from someone who ought to know better.”–Steve Vladeck
Trans Attacks Watch
Among the first dozen bills the House GOP majority has teed up for the new Congress is one to amend Title IX to provide that in athletics “sex shall be recognized based solely on a person’s reproductive biology and genetics at birth.”
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues NCAA over transgender athletes competing in women’s sports.
More battles over transgender rights await Supreme Court.
A Triple Threat To Humanity
In a short new essay, Michael E. Mann and Peter J. Hotez identify climate change, pandemics, and anti-science disinformation as the gravest perils to human civilization.
Sometimes I will write a post that somewhere midway through the writing starts to feel bloated and overwritten and then, in a pique of writerly nausea, I decide several sentences can and should — no, must, yuck! — do the work of a stable of paragraphs. This post began as one of those posts.
2024 was a deeply disappointing year. It capped two or three years that all had the feeling of playing out bad hands — a presidency defined by the jagged aftermath of COVID (a first-in-half-a-century inflation shock being the jaggedest), an increasingly frail president who couldn’t easily be replaced without doing even more damage than having him run for reelection. This doesn’t address decisions that should have been and could have been made differently. I focus on these because they were based on earlier decisions or events which were either right at the time or very difficult to avoid. Again, that steely but trapped feeling of playing out bad hands.
In 2025 we all face the consequences of those failures. But we are equally liberated from much of that history. Everybody is being dealt a new hand. We can make decisions differently, with more clarity, with less paralyzing concern over sunk costs. If there’s a message of the Biden years, it’s that there’s no simply going back to whatever we thought was the system that more or less worked before Trump arrived on the scene. You have to go forward on the basis of all we’ve seen over the last decade.
My takeaway is what I alluded to in this November piece about being the party of institutions in an era of distrust: Less reflexive protectiveness of institutions and norms and none for ones that can’t concretely justify their necessity in the future rather than the past. Enough valorizing process over results. This isn’t always obvious and doesn’t always come without real risks. But everything involves risk. Caution carries risks. The Trumpists control everything. They are the status quo. They were in many ways already the status quo but they are now in such a way that there is just no murkenizing or hiding it. All the billionaires have arrayed themselves on Trump’s side of the playground and said they’re on his team. We can see who is in charge and who’s powerful and who is the establishment. I find this liberating.
As we put a wrap on 2024, a word of thanks for reading Morning Memo and supporting TPM this year. It’s been a momentous and difficult year, and there’s no immediate relief in sight.
We now sit on the brink of a highly uncertain and foreboding era in which Donald Trump had retaken the White House and authoritarianism is on the march globally, putting democracy back on its heels. Later this week a new Republican-controlled Congress will be sworn in, and while it’s only been six years since the GOP controlled the White House and both chambers of Congress, it feels like a very different time than 2017-2019.
Trump Endorses Mike Johnson For Speaker
In post on Truth Social, President-elect Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) to retain the House speakership ahead of a vote by the new House on Friday.
It’s not clear whether Trump’s support – itself an unusual involvement by an incoming president in the affairs of the legislative branch – will be enough to bring the most rabid right-wing members into line behind Johnson and avoid an extended, multi-ballot saga like then-Rep. Kevin McCarthy endured in 2023.
If Johnson does successfully run the gauntlet of his own conference, he will more dependent on the president than any speaker in modern times.
Is The GOP Gonna Take Itself Hostage Over The Debt Ceiling?
With complete GOP control in Washington, the dynamics of its debt-ceiling hostage taking have changed pretty dramatically. But it’s not clear if Republicans themselves recognize that yet. Democrats seem to.
“It’s the bear trap in the bedroom Republicans love to leave around for negotiating purposes,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) told Politico. “Now that they’ve got the trifecta, it loses some of its negotiating appeal and remains extremely, extremely dangerous.”
Graves To Resign As US Attorney In DC
DC U.S. Attorney Matthew M. Graves, who has led the investigation and prosecution of Jan. 6 rioters since November 2021, will resign his post effective Jan. 16, before Trump takes office.
Trump Loses Appeal Of E. Jean Carroll Verdict
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit upheld the smaller of the two verdicts that writer E. Jean Carroll won against Donald Trump for sexual abuse and defamation, rejecting Trump’s appeal. Joyce Vance has more.
Mr. Trump has bragged to people that Mr. Musk — the world’s richest man — is “renting” one of the residential spaces at Mar-a-Lago. It is unclear how much Mr. Musk will ultimately end up paying for the cottage, which historically has rented for at least $2,000 a night, according to a person with knowledge of the fees.
Carter To Lie In State Before State Funeral
President Biden declared Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025, to be a national day of mourning for the late Jimmy Carter, culminating in a state funeral for the former president at National Cathedral in Washington, D.C. President Biden will deliver a eulogy. The sons of President Gerald Ford and Vice President Walter Mondale will read eulogies written by their fathers, who predeceased Carter. Ahead of the funeral, Carter will lie in state in the Capitol Rotunda beginning Jan. 7.
The International Energy Agency’s annual report released this month showed a continuing surge in the consumption of coal worldwide, particularly in China and India. As Javier Blas noted:
The IEA now estimates that global coal demand surged to an all-time high of 8,771 million metric tons this year, up 1% from 2023, as electricity demand rose faster than expected. That shouldn’t be a surprise: The energy transition requires electrifying everything. Renewables are doing some of that job, but coal remains, the go-to fuel to power the energy transition. Worse, the IEA revised higher its historical data, so the increase comes from a significantly higher baseline than before. The world is consuming a lot more coal than we thought – and therefore, it’s polluting the atmosphere a lot more than we thought, too.
Kilauea Summit Eruption Continues
A new eruption at the summit of Kilauea volcano in Hawaii began Dec. 23 and has continued intermittently for the past week, with fountaining lava spreading across the crater floor. A live view of the ongoing eruption:
See Ya Next Year
No Morning Memo on New Year’s Day. We’ll resume in earnest on Thursday.
This year was a bit of a hot mess. From natural disasters to wars, political violence to a shiny, viral baby hippo — photographers captured some of the year’s most extraordinary scenes.
January 14, 2024: Volcanic eruptions in Iceland
A January 14, 2024 image of a volcanic eruption on the outskirts of Grindavik, western Iceland shows billowing smoke and flowing lava. This was Iceland’s fifth volcanic eruption in two years; the previous one occurred on December 18, 2023 in the same region, southwest of the capital Reykjavik. Iceland is home to 33 active volcano systems, the highest number in Europe. (Photo by ICELANDIC DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL PROTECTION AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT/AFP via Getty Images)
January 30, 2024: Ukrainian military exercises
Ukrainian servicemen fire a 120 mm mortar during military exercises by assault units in the Zhytomyr region, west of Kyiv. (Photo by SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
February 3, 2024: Massive fires sweep across central Chile
An aerial view shows the forest fire that swept the hills of the city of Viña del Mar in the Las Pataguas sector, Chile; the photo was taken on February 3, 2024. The region of Valparaoso and Viña del Mar, in central Chile, woke up on Saturday with a partial curfew to allow the movement of evacuees and the transfer of emergency equipment in the midst of a series of unprecedented fires, authorities reported. (Photo by JAVIER TORRES/AFP via Getty Images)
February 6, 2024: Tucker Carlson interviews Vladimir Putin in Moscow
In this pool photograph distributed by Russian state news agency Sputnik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin gives an interview to U.S. right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson at the Kremlin in Moscow on February 6, 2024. (Photo by GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
February 16, 2024: Mourners gather after the death of Alexei Navalny
People gather at a makeshift memorial for late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, organized at the monument to the victims of political repressions in Saint Petersburg on February 16, 2024, following Navalny’s death in an Arctic prison. (Photo by OLGA MALTSEVA/AFP via Getty Images)
March 4, 2024: Texas experiences its largest wildfire
An aerial view shows cattle grazing on small islands of hay surrounded by pastureland burned by the Smokehouse Creek fire on March 4, 2024 near Canadian, Texas. The fire has burned more than a million acres in the Texas Panhandle, killing at least two people and destroying more than 500 structures. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
March 26, 2024: Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore collapses after being truck by container ship
In this aerial image, the steel frame of the Francis Scott Key Bridge sits on top of a container ship after the bridge collapsed outside Baltimore, Maryland, on March 26, 2024. The bridge collapsed early that day after being struck by the Singapore-flagged Dali container ship, sending multiple vehicles and people plunging into the frigid harbor below. (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
April 5, 2024: 7.5 magnitude earthquake hits Taiwan
People gather to see a partially collapsed building on April 5, 2024 in Hualien, Taiwan. Hundreds of victims were trapped in the mountains after a 7.5 magnitude earthquake hit eastern Taiwan on April 3rd, triggering a tsunami warning for coastal Taiwan, The Philippines and Japan. (Photo by Annabelle Chih/Getty Images)
April 18, 2024: Donald trump sits for his criminal trial in New York City
Donald Trump arrives with his legal team during jury selection at Manhattan Criminal Court on April 18, 2024 in New York City. Trump was charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records last year, and was found guilty in June. He was the first president to face trial on criminal charges. (Photo by Jabin Botsford-Pool/Getty Images)
April 23, 2024: Pro-Palistinian encampment at Columbia University
A man walks past Israeli and U.S. flags alongside portraits of Israelis taken hostage by Hamas in front of the pro-Palestinian encampment at Columbia University in New York on April 23, 2024. (Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images)
April 23, 2024: People rush to humanitarian aid packages dropped in Northern Gaza
People rush toward landing humanitarian aid packages that were dropped over the northern Gaza Strip on April 23, 2024. (Photo by OMAR AL-QATTAA/AFP via Getty Images)
May 6, 2024: Flooding in Brazil
Locals move in boats following flooding due to heavy rains in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil on May 6, 2024. (Photo by NELSON ALMEIDA/AFP via Getty Images)
May 9, 2024: Flooding in Kenya
A woman wades through flood waters at an inundated residential area in Garissa, Kenya, on May 9, 2024. Kenya was grappling with one of the worst floods in its recent history, the latest in a string of weather catastrophes, following weeks of extreme rainfall scientists have linked to a changing climate. At least hundreds of people were killed and more than 55,000 households were displaced as murky waters submerged entire villages, destroyed roads and inundated dams. (Photo by LUIS TATO/AFP via Getty Images)
May 21, 2024: Grvaes of Ukrainian soldiers who died fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war
An aerial view of the graves of Ukrainian soldiers who died during the Ukraine-Russia War in the 18th cemetery on May 21, 2024 in Kharkiv, Ukraine. (Photo by Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images)
May 22, 2024: Residents go through damage from a tornado in Iowa
Residents go through the damage after a tornado tore through Greenfield, Iowa. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
April 20, 2024: Paris hosts the Olympic games
France’s paralympic triple jumper Arnaud Assoumani poses in front of The Louvre Pyramid, designed by I. M. Pei, in Paris on April 20, 2024, ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic games. The Louvre was originally built as a fortress in the late 12th century, became one of the main residences of the kings of France later and is one of the largest museum in the world. (Photo by FRANCK FIFE/AFP via Getty Images)
July 1, 2024: Steve Bannon reports to prison in Connecticut
Steve Bannon, the former Donald Trump White House strategist, addresses the media at the Federal Correctional Institution Danbury as he began his four-month sentence on July 1, 2024. Bannon was held in contempt of Congress, his conviction for not complying with subpoenas from the House Select Committee that investigated the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. Bannon attempted to avoid reporting to prison while challenging his conviction before the federal appeals court in Washington, DC but was denied by the Supreme Court. (Photo by David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)
July 13, 2024: The assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Pennsylvania
Republican candidate Donald Trump is seen with blood on his face surrounded by Secret Service agents as he is taken off the stage at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, July 13, 2024. The gunman and a bystander were killed and two spectators critically injured. (Photo by REBECCA DROKE/AFP via Getty Images)
July 29, 2024: The olympic surfing competition held in Tahiti
Brazil’s Gabriel Medina reacts after getting a large wave in the 5th heat of the men’s surfing round 3 during the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, in Teahupo’o, on the French Polynesian Island of Tahiti, on July 29, 2024. (Photo by JEROME BROUILLET/AFP via Getty Images)
August 12, 2024: Wildfires near Athens, Greece
Smoke rises over Parthenon temple during a wildfire near Athens, Greece, on August 12, 2024. (Photo by Costas Baltas/Anadolu via Getty Images)
September 15, 2024: The pygmy hippo Moo Deng becomes internet sensation
Moo Deng, a two-month-old female pygmy hippo who has became a viral internet sensation, is showered by a zookeeper at Khao Kheow Open Zoo in Chonburi province on September 15, 2024. (Photo by LILLIAN SUWANRUMPHA/AFP via Getty Images)
September 26, 2024: Hurricane Helene hits Cuba, causing flooding
A man rides a handmade raft through a flooded street in Batabano, Mayabeque province, Cuba, on September 26, 2024, following the passage of Hurricane Helene. H(Photo by YAMIL LAGE/AFP via Getty Images)
October 1, 2024: Former President Jimmy Carter turns 100
People attend the Plains Peanut Festival on September 28, 2024 in Plains, Georgia. Plains is the hometown of Former President Carter, who died in December. October 1, 2024 was his 100th Birthday. (Photo by Megan Varner/Getty Images)
October 2, 2024: We start to see the full scope of damage to North carolina brought by Hurriacne Helen
An aerial view shows flood damage along the Swannanoa River in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene on October 2, 2024 in Asheville, North Carolina. President Joe Biden took an aerial tour of the devastated region and ordered the deployment of 1,000 active-duty U.S. soldiers to assist with storm relief efforts and reinforce the North Carolina National Guard. At least 160 people were killed in six states in the wake of the powerful hurricane, which made landfall as a Category 4. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
October 5, 2024: Elon Musk starts campaigning with Donald Trump
Tesla CEO Elon Musk (R) jumps on stage as he joins former Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a campaign rally at the site of his first assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania on October 5, 2024. (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
October 4th, 2024: The Nova festival siet and memorial as we approach one year of conflict after the October 7th attack on Israel
An aerial view shows people visiting the Nova Festival memorial site on October 04, 2024 in Re’im, Israel. Over the last few months the grounds around Re’im Park have been turned into a memorial for the victims and hostages from the Nova Music Festival, which was attacked by Hamas on the morning of October 7th. The site has been expanded to include stories of the victims, including first responders, police, and military, with other large personalized memorials. On October 7, 2023, members of Hamas mounted a series of attacks and raids on Israeli citizens in the Gaza Envelope border area of Israel. 251 Israelis and foreigners were kidnapped and 1139 people were killed. More than 100 are still unaccounted for. (Photo by Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images)
October 6, 2024: Israel conducts airstrikes on Lebanon
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a neighborhood in Beirut’s southern suburbs late on October 6, 2024. Official Lebanese media reported four Israeli strikes on south Beirut on October 6, shortly after calls by Israel’s army for residents to evacuate the Hezbollah stronghold, which had been bombarded for several days. (Photo by FABIO BUCCIARELLI/AFP via Getty Images)
October 7, 2024: Ruins in Gaza City on the anniversary of the October 7 attack on Israel
Palestinians walk on a dirt road lined with building rubble in the Shujaiya neighborhood of Gaza City on October 7, 2024, on the first anniversary of the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas. (Photo by OMAR AL-QATTAA/AFP via Getty Images)
October 13, 2024: SpaceX sucessfully returns Starship megarocket to launchpad after test flight
Starship’s Super Heavy Booster is grappled at the launch pad in Starbase near Boca Chica, Texas, on October 13, 2024, during the Starship Flight 5 test. SpaceX successfully “caught” the first-stage booster of its Starship megarocket as it returned to the launch pad after a test flight, a world-first in the company’s quest for rapid reusability. (Photo by SERGIO FLORES/AFP via Getty Images)
October 20, 2024: Donald Trump campaigns at a McDonald’s
Donald Trump works behind the counter during a campaign event at a McDonald’s on October 20, 2024 in Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Doug Mills-Pool/Getty Images)
October 30, 2024: Flash floods in Spain’s Valencia region
Cars are piled in the street with other debris after flash floods hit the Sedaví area of Valencia, Spain. Spanish authorities said that more than 200 people died after flash-flooding followed heavy rain. Spain’s meteorological agency had issued its highest alert for the region due to the extreme rainfall. (Photo by David Ramos/Getty Images)
November 13, 2024: Destruction in Beirut amid Israel’s invasion
A man uses his mobile phone to take photos as smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike targeting a neighborhood in southern Beirut on November 13, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (Photo by IBRAHIM AMRO/AFP via Getty Images)
November 22, 2024: The most destructive fire in a decade hits Camarillo, California
An aerial view of a home destroyed in the Mountain Fire on November 22, 2024 in Camarillo, California. The Mountain Fire ignited amid powerful winds on November 6, and destroyed more than 200 buildings, many of them homes. The nearly 20,000-acre fire was the third most destructive wildfire to occur in Southern California in at least ten years. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
December 16, 2024: After more than 1,000 days of war in Ukraine, Russia ramps up renewed bombing effort
An exterior view of a residential building damaged by shelling on December 16, 2024 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine. In July 2024, Russia renewed efforts to reach and capture Pokrovsk in a new offensive. Residents of Pokrovsk are living without light, gas and water. Medical institutions and social facilities have been evacuated in the city, bank branches, gas stations, pharmacies and most stores have closed. The front line is approaching the city. (Photo by Vladyslav Ukolov/Suspilne Ukraine/JSC “UA:PBC”/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)
December 19, 2024: Luigi Mangione, suspect in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO, arrives in NYC
Luigi Mangione, suspect in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, arrives at a heliport with members of the NYPD on December 19, 2024 in New York City. The 26-year-old was arrested in Pennsylvania on December 9 after being spotted at a McDonald’s in Altoona amid a national manhunt. Mangione also appeared in a Pennsylvania court on forgery and firearms charges, where he waived extradition to New York after being indicted on 11 charges including first-degree murder in furtherance of terrorism. (Photo by Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)
Republicans are pushing to eliminate Direct File, a Biden administration program that offers a way for some Americans to file their taxes without paying for preparation services. To Wyden, the effort to eliminate the program is an attempt to “intentionally sabotage basic public services.”
“To me, paying your taxes ought to be free and easy — and the biggest benefit of direct file is it’s free,” Wyden, the chair of the Senate Finance Committee, told TPM.
Of the many problems likely to be caused by the GOP’s extremely narrow margins in the House next year, the debt ceiling, for now, seems to be the one that has most captured Trump’s attention. Truth Social reveals him to be very angry about it all — despite the fact that the recent history of debt-limit standoffs is a creation of his own party.
Going back more than a decade now, Republicans have regularly used the debt ceiling as hostage-taking exercise, risking national default and credit downgrades in a performative effort to look like budget hawks, or what they imagine budget hawks would look like. Because Republicans will start next year in control of both chambers of Congress and the White House, there are no hostages to take except themselves. Couple that with their initial 217-215 margin in the House — barely a vote to spare — and there’s plenty of opportunity for inflicting Republican-on-Republican pain.
Whether or not the debt ceiling ultimately gets raised is entirely within Republicans’ control, yet the potential for a fight still looms — a realization that may well be the source of Trump’s recent ire that a debt ceiling reckoning will come due in the first half of 2025.
Some backstory to this latest confrontation:
Congress voted in 2023 to suspend the debt ceiling until 2025 — when there would be a new Congress and, perhaps, a new president. The deal had the support of then-Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, who was coming off of a grueling speakership battle.
Unfortunately for Republicans, the president come 2025 turns out to be one of their own. The suspension technically expires on Jan. 1, but the Treasury Department will be able to keep the government running for a few more months through the now familiar “extraordinary measures.”
The drama Republicans perpetually stir up around raising the debt ceiling apparently began to loom large for Trump earlier this month: After Elon Musk blew up the House’s spending bill, Trump demanded the House work into its next version some kind of debt ceiling suspension. That bill didn’t pass, leaving Trump railing against Republicans who have built opposing debt ceiling increases into their personal brand, like Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX).
This all leaves Trump trying to whip votes through Truth Social by attacking everyone involved, including departed House Speaker McCarthy. “The extension of the Debt Ceiling by a previous Speaker of the House, a good man and a friend of mine, from this past September of the Biden Administration, to June of the Trump Administration, will go down as one of the dumbest political decisions made in years,” he complained on Sunday.
Trump seems to think his only hope is not members of his own party but House Democrats, who earlier this month were content to let the CR comedy play out without lending a hand, and who will be especially unwilling to pass any debt ceiling solution that also includes toxic elements of Trump’s agenda. (There’s already talk of trying to woo debt-ceiling hostage-takers with such prizes as cuts to mandatory spending, a category that includes such things as food stamps, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.)
“I call it ‘1929’ because the Democrats don’t care what our Country may be forced into,” he posted, seemingly hoping the prospect that his own party might force a default — rendered through a questionable historical analogy — might coax Democrats on board.
It’s time to contemplate 2024’s biggest freaks, as we gather around one last time before the new year to celebrate those who sucked the most shamelessly, who grifted the most elegantly, who were the most sophisticated in their betrayal of public trust.
As is tradition, the losers are the winners.
There were a handful of repeat offenders in some categories this winter, but for the most part the winners you selected in each category were either newcomers who saw their political star ascend during 2024’s election cycle — or under-the-radar old faithfuls who let their freak flags fly in entirely new and creative ways this year.
The hosts of The Josh Marshall Podcast, TPM’s Josh Marshall and Kate Riga, announced the winners of this year’s Golden Dukes live on the podcast. Watch as the envelopes are unsealed and winners unveiled or peruse the results of our annual commemoration of the year’s most radiant rats below:
Best Scandal – General Interest
Winner – John Roberts & the conservative justices [51.6% of the vote]
2nd place – Elon Musk [15%]
3rd place [tie] – Donald Trump [14.2%]
3rd place [tie] – Bob “Gold Bars” Menendez [14.2%]
5th place – The billionaire owners of the WashingtonPost & the LA Times [5%]
The Takes [edited for clarity]
Josh: “I have to say, they earned it. I think I agree with the Academy on this one.”
Kate: “If you want to take the more traditional scandal lens to this choice, I think the voters might have been thinking particularly of the Alito flag scandal, the Clarence Thomas billionaire stuff. Obviously, [the Court is] scandalous, kind of writ large, in terms of being fairly illegitimate. But you know, in terms of active, old-school scandal … they’ve been dipping their toes in that as well.
Best Scandal — Sex & Generalized Carnality
Winner – Matt Gaetz [39.2% of the vote]
2nd place – Mark Robinson’s Black Nazi Pornhub account [28.3%]
3rd place – The Ziegler Moms for Liberty swingin’threesome [26.1%]
4th place – RFK Jr.’s Many, Many Affairs [6.4%]
The Takes [edited for clarity]
Josh: “Matt Gaetz. Interesting, interesting. I have to say my favorite was the Ziegler’s. That to me is open and shut and I do feel like if we were closer to that scandal, they would have really been in contention here.”
Kate: “Yeah, my winner, I think, would have probably been Mark Robinson … but the people have spoken, it’s Matt Gaetz … My favorite, quote unquote, favorite chapter of the Matt Gaetz thing was when, I think it was Markwayne Mullen was on TV, and he was talking about how Gaetz would just show off nudes on the floor. And everyone would be like, ‘Great, Matt.’ Like, what are you expecting? What do you want? It is really funny to me, this idea that he’s scampering around like a puppy, being like, ‘guys, guys, look.’ And everyone’s like, ‘Cool. Congrats. Get away from me.’”
Best Scandal — Local Venue
Winner – Kristi Noem, Dog Killer [39.1% of the vote]
2nd place – Ryan Walters [29.8%]
3rd place – Eric Adams [27.2%]
4th place – Anthony D’Esposito [4%]
The Takes [edited for clarity]
Josh: “I’m vindicated because, despite the recency issue, it’s so strong that she won. Right? It’s just stand-out. It’s stand-out.
Kate: “Kristi Noem I think deserves it for outing herself. The only reason we know this happened is because she wrote about it in her book. My personal favorite part of this passage where she murdered all these animals on the same day is that there was a team of construction workers nearby who could see and were apparently looking over with horrified looks on their faces while she was doing that, which I kind of enjoy because the whole framing of this anecdote is supposed to be: I’m South Dakota tough. I don’t fuck around. I take care of what needs to be taken care of. And then you’ve got these hard, rough and tumble South Dakota construction dudes who are like, ‘What the fuck is going on?’”
Meritorious Achievement in the Crazy
Winner – RFK Jr., killer of various wildlife [47.5% of the vote]
2nd place – Rudy Giuliani [32.9%]
3rd place – Nancy Mace’s anti-trans crusade [11%]
4th place – Russell Vought [8.6%]
The Takes [edited for clarity]
Kate: “He had the bear, he had the whale, he had the brain worm. But the bear was really special because … every detail he adds in the story is increasingly bizarre. He starts out, ‘We found the bear. I wanted to cook it up. That’s just kind of the hick in me.’ And it’s like, who are you fooling? You are a Kennedy. And then he says, ‘You know, but we had to go to Peter Luger’s. So I had to drop off the bear because I was going to the airport from Peter Lugar’s.’ What schedule is this? Why is this your evening?”
‘I’m Going To Trump’s Cabinet And I’m Bringing …’
Winner – Pete Hegseth [39.1% of the vote]
2nd place – RFK Jr. [29.2%]
3rd place – Tulsi Gabbard [24.9%]
4th place – Linda McMahon [6.8%]
The Takes [edited for clarity]
Josh: “RFK Jr. could get any of these. So I guess that makes sense.”
Kate: “It’s objectively really funny that he’s going around Congress and they’re asking him about his drinking habits. We haven’t seen this since Brett Kavanaugh was before the Senate Judiciary Committee and he did his whole: ‘Yeah, I like beer. So what? I have a beer every now and then. Yeah, I black out sometimes. What’s the problem?’ You know, it’s nice to have that in the discourse again.”
Best Scandal — World-Wide Wingnutery
Winner – Tucker Carlson [31.7% of the vote]
2nd place – Yoon Suk Yeol [27%]
3rd place – Javier Milei [16.1%]
4th place – Jair Bolsonaro [13.5%]
5th place – Princess Gloria von Thurn und Taxis [11.7%]
The Takes [edited for clarity]
Josh: “I guess I was wrong calling him a dark horse.”
Kate: “The heel turn from being fired by Fox News … that we have not seen a true explanation for … to the kind of pathetic Twitter Space interviews with Catturd. I’ll never forget … And then the additional heel turn where he’s become kind of a Russian stooge and goes to grocery stores in Moscow. And then try[ing] to do symbiosis with [Putin] on the right-wing talking points … It’s been an interesting couple of years for our boy Tucker.
I wanted to flag this article to you. It’s a fascinating look at right-wing South Korean YouTubers and President Yoon’s recent attempt to impose martial law in the country, which ended with Yoon being impeached and removed from power. It matches with bits and pieces of what I’ve been able to pick up in the English language press in South Korea as well as from various commentators who write in English on social media.
One big takeaway is that South Korea is similarly awash in right-wing and left-wing YouTubers who have similarly either destabilized trust in traditional media or taken advantage of that lack of trust, depending on whether you’re on Team Chicken or Team Egg. The trajectory there seems more recent. A lot of it is over just the last two or three years, while in the U.S. these trends date back significantly further. But the most interesting detail is that this world seems to be a big part of the answer to a question that still looms over the whole attempted coup, which is: “what was President Yoon thinking?”
This isn’t the Cold War where you could either be fearing a communist takeover or exploit those fears as a justification for a coup. While South Korea’s democratic era only goes back to the late 1980s, it’s deeply entrenched. And while there was a protracted political crisis of sorts in the country, it really wasn’t one that anyone imagined leading to a replay of things that happened in the country in the 1960s of 1970s. And this isn’t some statement of naiveté: how the whole thing played out vindicates this perspective. The country’s reaction to the attempt can best be described as a widespread “What the fuck?” Like not even, “this won’t stand!” or “we’ll defend our democracy!”, though those were there too. The immediate reaction to Yoon’s move was as much bafflement as fear or anger. The whole thing was so crazy and out of left field that people struggled to understand what Yoon had even been thinking. That’s why the attempted coup played out as it did and why Yoon is currently out of power and looking at likely treason charges.
Many of you have have enjoyed this quiet interregnum between Christmas and the New Year to unplug from the news and focus on family and friends. I did, too, but it has felt like an uncanny quiet, a pause after the GOP’s self-own chaos over the last-minute passage of a CR to fund the government and before the grueling pace of Trump II destruction begins in earnest.
Morning Memo will be around most of this week (except New Year’s Day). We’ll begin the week with a roundup of things you may have missed over the Christmas holiday and a few things to look ahead to this week.
Great Scoop
Just before the holidays, NPR had a great scoop – headlined “Louisiana forbids public health workers from promoting COVID, flu and mpox shots” – about a new policy being low-key implemented by the Louisiana Department of Health:
According to the employees, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they fear losing their jobs or other forms of retaliation, the policy would be implemented quietly and would not be put in writing.
Staffers were also told that it applies to every aspect of the health department’s work: Employees could not send out press releases, give interviews, hold vaccine events, give presentations or create social media posts encouraging the public to get the vaccines. They also could not put up signs at the department’s clinics that COVID, flu or mpox vaccines were available on site.
Listen here:
Trump Border Czar Wants To Use Military As ‘Force Multiplier’
“Donald Trump’s team is looking at using military bases to detain migrants and military planes to boost deportations, the president-elect’s incoming border czar Tom Homan said.”–WSJ
‘How Much Did You Pay To Have Your Daughter Raped?’
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) latest grandstanding over immigration is a $100,000 billboard ad campaign to deter migrants from crossing the border with crude messages like “How much did you pay to have your daughter raped?”
Sign Of The Times
WSJ: Some Justice Department Lawyers Look for Protection—and the Exits
Elon Musk Watch
Donald Trump dismisses talk that he’s ceded the presidency to Elon Musk as a “hoax.”
Musk doubles down on support for German far-right party.
Retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel L. Honoré: Elon Musk Is a National Security Risk
For Your Radar …
When the new Congress convenes for the first time Friday, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) will try to retain the speakership after the pre-Christmas debacle over the continuing resolution to fund the federal government until mid-March and avoid a shutdown. It’s an early measure of how chaotic GOP rules in Washington will be. Matt Glassman has everything you could possibly want to know about the speaker election.
Texas Congresswoman Suffering From Dementia
Retiring Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX), until April the chair of the House Appropriations Committee, has been little-seen in Washington since then and is residing in an independent living facility in Texas where she is suffering from “dementia issues,” according to reports over the holidays.
Granger’s situation was first reported by The Dallas Express. Some aspects of the initial report were disputed by Granger’s office, but the upshot is that her health issues have made serving out the remainder of her term difficult at best.
ICYMI
TPM’s Kate Riga: Ethics Committee Finds ‘Substantial Evidence’ That Gaetz Committed ‘Statutory Rape’
Rudy G Faces A Reckoning
After dressing up as Santa Claus to promote his Rudy Coffee, Rudy Giuliani faces a contempt of court hearing Friday in the defamation case against him by Georgia election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss. The judge is already signaling it may not go well for the former NYC mayor.
‘This Is Trump’s America Now’
A Colorado man was arrested on suspicion of bias-motivated crimes, second degree assault and harassment for a Dec. 18 incident in Grand Junction when he allegedly attacked TV reporter Ja’Ronn Alex, who is of Pacific Island descent:
After arriving in Grand Junction, Egan, who was driving a taxi, pulled up next to Alex at a stoplight and, according to an arrest affidavit, said something to the effect of: “Are you even a U.S. citizen? This is Trump’s America now! I’m a Marine and I took an oath to protect this country from people like you!”
Alex, who had been out reporting, then drove back to his news station in the city. After he got out of his vehicle, Egan chased Alex as he ran toward the station’s door and demanded to see his identification, according to the document laying out police’s evidence in the case. Egan then tackled Alex, put him in a headlock and “began to strangle him,” the affidavit said. Coworkers who ran out to help and witnesses told police that Alex appeared to be losing his ability to breathe during the attack, which was partially captured on surveillance video, according to the document.
‘Target On My Back’
Nashville TV reporter Phil Williams was targeted by the Christian right in a pre-Christmas wave of online abuse: “Rarely in my nearly 40-year career as a journalist have I felt the target on my back as continuously and intensely as I have in the last 15 months.”
Trump Files Brief In TikTok Case At SCOTUS
“The Trump brief, on which Trump’s intended nominee to be Solicitor General, John Sauer, is counsel of record (indeed, Sauer is the only listed counsel), is a striking document. It includes a series of wholly irrelevant platitudes about Trump; and, even though it takes no position on whether the TikTok statute is or is not constitutional, it urges the Court to ‘stay’ the January 19 effective date to allow for Trump, once he comes to office, to pursue some (unspecified) political solution to the dispute.”–Steve Vladeck
Joe Biden Agonistes
Jimmy Carter dying in the waning days of the Biden presidency felt like a passing of the baton from the last one-term Democratic president whose legacy has been debated for half a century to the next. The debate over Joe Biden’s legacy is just beginning but will probably last at least as long, depending on how destructive the return to Trump turns out to be. The WaPo gives Biden world an early chance to weigh in.
Jimmy Carter, 1924-2024
Democratic presidential candidate Jimmy Carter embraces his wife Rosalynn after receiving the final news of his victory in the national general election, November 2, 1976. (Photo by Hulton Archive/Getty Images)
My own memories of Jimmy Carter are those of a child: As a bleary-eyed six-year-old barging in on my shaving father the morning after the 1976 election demanding to know why he hadn’t woken me in the night, as promised, with the result. He had, he assured me. Or driving the old family station wagon with the Carter-Mondale bumper sticker on it through a good chunk of high school deep into the Reagan ’80s. If you’re feeling a little nostalgic, too, our slideshow may spark some memories.
