After the Iowa caucus disaster, each candidate came to the New Hampshire debate with something to prove.
Whether it be to salvage a win or bury the loss, seven presidential hopefuls took the stage to sell themselves to primary voters.
Here were their strategies:
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Former South Bend Mayor Pete ButtigiegButtigieg just edged out Sanders in the Iowa caucus, making him Monday’s big winner. That victory, naturally, put a huge target on his back. Buttigieg delivered clearly prepared answers for many of those attacks, especially criticism about his youth and inexperience, framing himself as someone who’s prepared for the stresses of the presidency of the future. |
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Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)For Sanders particularly, this was a night he had to present himself as a unifier. After former Vice President Joe Biden’s disappointing finish in the caucus, Sanders was looking to mix his competitor’s stumble with his own good positioning in New Hampshire and Nevada to fashion himself as the new frontrunner. That required a departure from his usual tactic of characterizing himself as the outsider, anti-establishment candidate. In one especially notable moment of reaching to the center, he promised compromise with Republicans on common ground, a page ripped straight from the Biden book. |
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Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)Warren put up a strong, competent performance as usual — but struggled for airtime. Her third place finish in Iowa has been largely overlooked in coverage of the race, and she was accordingly treated like a non-threat on the debate stage. No questions looked to spark fights she’d be a part of, and she largely only got in on the questions when asked things directly. |
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Former Vice President Joe BidenBiden was notably fired up throughout the debate. He got angry when Buttigieg questioned his accomplishments, at President Donald Trump’s foreign policy, at Sanders’ explanation for how to pay for health care. He was clearly coached to turn up the passion after an extremely limp Iowa showing, and is trying to energize his followers. |
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Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)Klobuchar is a reliably good debater, but it hasn’t much helped her standing in the polls. So, she was faced once again with the task of showing voters why they should support her. Tonight, she hammered her legislative effectiveness and electoral successes, framing herself as steady, reliable and effective. She mixed in a hearty dose of emotional anecdotes as well, painting herself as the presidential everywoman. |
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Tech Entrepreneur Andrew YangYang did what he usually does: stuck to broad strokes and conveyed his personal likability. He was absent from the last debate, but rustled up the support to get back into this one. |
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Billionaire Tom SteyerSteyer constantly pivoted back to the need to take on Trump rather than Democratic infighting. A generous read of this is that Steyer doesn’t want Democrats weakening each other before the general election. A less generous read is that criticizing Trump is always a reliable applause line. |
This was the first debate I actually watched since the first one. Buttigieg and Steyer were a lot more annoying and substance-less than I remembered. Biden was repeatedly and semi-coherently shouting “I did that! It was me!” If I was someone who for some reason didn’t like Bernie or Warren, I’d go with Klobuchar.
My husband and I both thought Klobuchar was a stand out tonight. She’s quick, knows how to incorporate humor and comes off as a happy warrior. Also, she’s unlikely to inspire the kind of backlash some of the others might. And not a septugenarian.
Finished watching the debate. Quick thoughts:
Joe Biden - Had his best debate performance, particularly in the first 90 minutes. Was forceful, emphatic, feisty and was able to imprint his personality on substantive points ranging from health care to guns to the courts to foreign policy. He did what he needed to do to get the Culinary Union endorsement in NV and to keep POC voters with him. He’ll survive the early predictions of his demise or a loss in NH. This was an important moment for him in the big scheme of this campaign. I don’t think it will get him a win in NH, but I think it will put him in good stead in NV and SC and among POC voters in general.
Bernie Sanders - Thought he was playing defense tonight on health care. Didn’t press the attack on Pete very well. Got some stuff thrown in his face on single payer, guns and the gospel of free s**t in general. Had some solid moments on impeachment/Trumpism. Not a great performance but probably got bailed out by Klobuchar.
Amy Klobuchar - As much as I’ve grown annoyed with Klobchar’s dime story Hillary knock off routine, she brought her best performance today. She hit Buttigieg and Bernie a lot and stole Warren’s message (while Warren tried to steal Kamala Harris’ message…bizarre I know). Her closing was almost like a Liz Warren speech delivered with a hint of emotion you don’t usually hear from her. That performance will get her noticed more and I think she will get into the low double digits in NH (she’s at 8%. I think she’ll finish at 11%-14%). That will probably be enough to enable Bernie to win NH because there are only so many ways one can split the center left pie before Bernie’s floor > than each individual candidate’s ceiling. For Biden to take full control of this race, Amy has to drop out. She’s clearly not going to do that here, but her path from this point forward is pretty much nonexistent.
Elizabeth Warren - Wordy, flat for the first hour. Started finding a groove hitting Buttigieg after he had his usual stumble on race questions, but then it was just odd to watch Kamala Harris’ words come out of her mouth. She’s a good student as well as professor it would seem! I did like her embrace of incrementalism on trade and health care. It’s coming too late in this process but I applaud her for that. She refused to take on Bernie and I think that will ultimately doom her campaign.
Pete Buttigieg - Pete took a lot of shots from Amy, Bernie, Liz and one from Biden (though Biden was wise to pull back from hitting him too hard. Better to save up the good stuff for South Carolina). I think Pete had a pretty rough night, though I can tell the media wants to keep pumping him up. Good answer on the Hunter Biden question (why didn’t that come to Joe? Huh?). Good response to Bernie trying to shame him for raising money from rich folks (duh…Trump just raised $25 million today), but on race, his view on Washington, his theory of politics and getting things done, his experience, he got dinged a lot by Amy in particular.
Tom Steyer - Was kissing Bernie’s ass the whole night. Bernie has outsourced his SC campaign to Steyer. Bernie might not even get delegates there, but Steyer is just trying to hold Biden’s delegate number down. Pretty disgraceful performance and Amy did hit him pretty good on how politics gets done in DC.
Yang - Why? He’s a fraud, a con artist and a nihilist. Tom Perez sucks.
How will this impact the race?
I don’t think Bernie will grow his vote. He wasn’t impressive. But his base will be with him. I think Biden should be able to move up to #3. More people will abandon Warren for Amy. Amy could get to 4th place. Pete got hit a lot and might stall out at around 18%. I suspect Bernie will win the race with somewhere between 24%-28% of the vote. There will probably be a battle for second between Biden/Pete. Amy/Warren will battle for 4th.
(White) people still have not understood the power of the POC vote in the Democratic South.
In the South, FL, GA, SC etc…
Pete’s got a shot at that, right? /s