Nikki Haley on Saturday lost the Republican primary in her home state of South Carolina to Donald Trump, a not unexpected but still embarrassing blow to the former governor in her effort to be seen as a viable alternative to the former president.
The Associated Press called the race within moments of polls closing. Hours later, with more than 90% of the vote counted, Trump had 60% and Haley had 39%.
Haley had been trailing far behind Trump in polls of the state for months, and set expectations appropriately, giving a speech last week in which she said she’d stay in the race regardless of the outcome in South Carolina, and telling NPR that she’d at least stick it out through Super Tuesday, on March 5.
“Right now, the furthest we’ve thought is we certainly are going to go past South Carolina, go into Michigan and go into Super Tuesday states,” she said. “I haven’t actually sat down and thought about what comes after that.”
Haley reiterated that commitment in a speech Saturday. “Today is not the end of our story,” she said.
There was some minimal degree of suspense heading into Saturday. South Carolina is an open primary, and there was speculation about the extent to which Democrats in the state would be willing to lend Haley a hand. Preliminary exit poll results, however, suggested that few Democrats had crossed over to vote for either candidate.
Saturday’s results affirm again a reality that has loomed over much of 2024: that the general election will almost certainly be a rematch of 2020, between a former president who sought to stay in office even after he was defeated and the current president who defeated him. No presidential candidate has lost their home state and gone on to win the nomination in the modern era.
Underscoring that historic rematch, Trump spent Saturday not in South Carolina but at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland, where he labeled the January 6 rioters who aided his coup attempt as “hostages,” and issued apocalyptic warnings to his political enemies.
“For hard-working Americans, Nov. 5 will be our new Liberation Day,” Trump said. “But for the liars, and cheaters, and fraudsters, and censors and imposters who have commandeered our government, it will be their Judgment Day.” If he Biden serves another term, he warned, America would face “obliteration.” He did not mention Haley.
In a primary election straw poll of CPAC attendees, Trump received 94 percent of the vote. Haley received 5.
With polls looking similarly grim for Haley in Michigan, it’s becoming increasingly hard for the press to ignore the reality that her candidacy will need an assist beyond what voters are willing to deliver: a criminal conviction for Trump, a ruling from the Supreme Court disqualifying him, or some kind of health emergency that prevents him from continuing to the nomination, leaving Haley as the one who is available. If any of those things should come to pass, there’s no guarantee she’d be the nominee — but being the one still running might put her near the front of the line.
