The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been forced to halt the publishing of its always-anticipated monthly jobs report because of the government shutdown, making room for President Donald Trump’s administration to obscure the true state of the economy nine months into his second term.
While the president has made clear his plans to use the government shutdown as a way to target Democrats and fire more federal government workers to “inflict massive pain,” the situation at the BLS creates a unique opportunity for an administration averse to accurate data. According to the contingency plan published by the Department of Labor, only one of the more than 2,000 BLS employees, the acting commissioner, will be working during the shutdown.
Here’s how the Labor Department has outlined BLS shutdown functions:
“BLS will suspend all operations.”
“Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released.”
“All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease.”
“The BLS website will not be updated with new content or restored in the event of a technical
failure during a lapse.”
And if the shutdown carries on?
“The releases of economic data will likely be delayed if a lapse is prolonged.”
Further, “A reduction in quality of data collected might impact the quality of future estimates produced.”
Right now, all signs point to a weakening economy, one exacerbating the divide between the top 10% and everyone else, and having a particularly harmful effect on small- and medium-sized businesses, farmers, and the manufacturing industry, according to previous BLS data. Those are the very sectors Trump campaigned to help.
On Wednesday, private HR and payroll corporation ADP released its own nongovernmental employment numbers, complete with significant downward revisions for the previous months.
Companies lost a combined 32,000 jobs in September, the ADP data showed. Analysts had estimated the economy would actually add between 45,000 and 51,000 jobs in Sept. including government jobs, which the ADP report omits. The ADP survey also included a downward revision for August, showing U.S. businesses actually lost 3,000 jobs that month, rather than adding 54,000 jobs as previously believed.
September data saw the largest payroll reduction since March 2023, Bloomberg reported.
And the impacts aren’t equitable. Employers with fewer than 500 employees lost jobs, the ADP numbers show, while companies 500 or more employees added them.
“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said.
While the ADP jobs tally is noteworthy, especially amid the data blackout prompted by the shutdown, the data still falls below the gold standard numbers produced by the federal statistical system, Morgan Stanley’s economists said in a report.
“We are reluctant to rely on the ADP data,” the economists said, citing less transparent methodology and other discrepancies.
That underscores the idea experts have pushed back against in conversations with TPM: that compromised federal economic data cannot be easily reproduced by private industry. Private surveys use less expansive and diverse survey participants, experts said, and are also subject to far fewer public disclosure requirements. Indeed, access to private datasets can cost thousands of dollars.
In response to an inquiry about the impact of the shutdown on federal data, White House spokesperson Kush Desai accused Democrats for the government deadlock.
“Businesses, families, policymakers, and markets rely on timely and accurate public data for their decision-making, and it’s unfortunate that Democrats are gleefully throwing a wrench in our economy by shutting down the government to push freebies for illegal immigrants,” Desai said in an email.
The BLS job openings and labor turnover report, released Tuesday just ahead of the start of the shutdown, revealed a stagnant jobs market. In August, employers basically didn’t net any new jobs and also didn’t necessarily cut jobs, either. The construction industry has been particularly hard hit by tariffs on materials-related imports and lost 115,000 jobs in August, the largest loss across industry.
Meanwhile, inflation continues to rise. The BLS consumer price index for August, published in the middle of last month, showed inflation for urban consumers grew by 0.4% year over year, the most since January.
The BLS and other government agencies that track crucial economic data will remain shuttered as long as the shutdown continues. During this time, families and corporations could also be left in the dark about worsening inflation.
To this administration, all this obscurity is a feature, not a bug.
“During this time, families and corporations could also be left in the dark about worsening inflation.“
Families will not be left in the dark about inflation. They know about it every time they go to the grocery store or see increases in almost everything they pay for. A box of Little Debbie snack cakes is now over $3. That’s real inflation.
The information will still come out in time.
Health insurance increases, home insurance increases, and energy increases. That is what I’m hearing about from even my non-politically aware friends. They feel it and they never, ever paid attention to a job numbers or inflation report.
It’s entitlement. This administration does not function for the People. It’s only there to prop up the old orange fat guy.