GOP Pollster Laments His Profession Is ‘Finished’ If They’re Wrong About 2020

(Screenshot: Fox News/Snapstream)
Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

Frank Luntz, a top pollster for Republicans, asserted on Thursday night that if he and his fellow analysts are wrong yet again about who’ll win the election a la 2016, that blunder could spell doom for his industry.

“Right now the biggest issue is a trust deficit,” Luntz told Fox News hosts Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. “And pollsters did not do a good job in 2016.”

“So if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden’s got a five or six point lead and then Donald Trump wins, my profession is done. It’s finished,” he continued. “You can make a mistake once, Bret. You cannot make it again.”

FiveThirtyEight currently pegs Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden as the “favored” candidate in the presidential race with an 87 in 100 chance of defeating President Donald Trump, who has a 12 in 100 chance of successfully fending him off. The Guardian’s polling averages largely show Biden leading Trump in key swing states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, as do that of RealClearPolitics.

Watch Luntz below:

Latest News

Notable Replies

  1. Avatar for jmacaz jmacaz says:

    Doom for his industry? PFFT… It’s DOOM for the country.

  2. Yes, Frankie, your profession - which, I have gathered over a good many years, is being a sycophantic whore for the Republican Party - will be finished, but your bad toupee will live forever!

  3. It would have been interesting if the story had included Luntz’s current polling prognostications.

    I mean the actual internal polling, not the fluffed up ones foisted on the deplorable base.

  4. Avatar for erik_t erik_t says:

    Pollsters did basically fine in 2016, and Frank Luntz beclowns himself and demonstrates his comprehensive lack of understanding of his alleged profession to state otherwise.

  5. 538 seems to be pretty good, and I say that because they have made me mad about some of their polling, then turned out to be correct and made me even more mad. So…there’s that.

    In the last few cycles with all the new registered voters, cell phones, young people, POC communities that I don’t think get polled, and people lying to pollsters, I don’t see how anyone can get a good read on things. I am not a pollster, I’m sure there are things they do that I am not aware of to get good stats, but I still think it is a near impossible task to get a true good read on what’s happening these days.

Continue the discussion at forums.talkingpointsmemo.com

124 more replies

Participants

Avatar for bdtex Avatar for valgalky23 Avatar for ajm Avatar for jw1 Avatar for srfromgr Avatar for fargo116 Avatar for cervantes Avatar for becca656 Avatar for bluinmaine Avatar for daveyjones64 Avatar for danny Avatar for midnight_rambler Avatar for alyoshakaramazov1 Avatar for jaybeeraybee Avatar for pine Avatar for shorebreeze Avatar for ljb860 Avatar for gusfabriani Avatar for jacksonhts Avatar for Anarchy_Bunker Avatar for redemptionsong Avatar for erik_t Avatar for yiprock Avatar for rascal_crone

Continue Discussion
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Deputy Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: