Over 1.3 Million Jobless Claims Filed Last Week Amid Skyrocketing COVID-19 Cases

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 06: A New York Labor Department office is viewed in Manhattan
A New York Labor Department office is viewed in Manhattan. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
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July 9, 2020 8:33 a.m.
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As multiple states see huge bumps in COVID-19 cases across the U.S., 1,314,000 unemployment claims were filed in the week ending on July 4, the Labor Department reported on Thursday morning.

The persistently elevated level of layoffs are occurring as a spike in virus cases has forced six states to reverse their move to reopen businesses. Those six — Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Michigan and Texas — make up one-third of the U.S. economy. Fifteen other states have suspended their re-openings. Collectively, the pullback has stalled a tentative recovery in the job market and is likely triggering additional layoffs.

Thursday’s report from the Labor Department showed that the number of applications for unemployment aid fell from 1.4 million in the previous week. The figure has now topped 1 million for 16 straight weeks. Before the pandemic, the record high for weekly unemployment applications was fewer than 700,000.

The total number of people who are receiving jobless benefits dropped 700,000 to 18 million. That suggests that some companies are continuing to rehire workers.
An additional 1 million people sought benefits last week under a separate program for self-employed and gig workers that has made them eligible for aid for the first time. These figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal variations, so the government doesn’t include them in the official count.

Americans are seeking unemployment aid against the backdrop of a disturbing surge in confirmed viral cases, with increases reported in 38 states. Case counts have especially accelerated in four states that now account for more than half of reported new U.S. cases: Arizona, California, Florida and Texas.

The intensifying outbreaks and more stringent government restrictions have slowed economic activity in much of the country and may be weighing on hiring. The government’s jobs report for June showed a solid gain of 4.8 million jobs and an unemployment rate that fell to 11.1% from 13.3%.

Yet even so, the economy has regained only about one-third of the jobs that vanished in March and April. And the June jobs report reflected surveys of Americans that were conducted in the middle of that month — before the pandemic flared up again.

More recent data are worrisome. Spending on credit and debit cards issued by Bank of America fell in the week that ended June 27 compared with the previous week. Auto and existing-home sales have slowed.

Restaurant visits have also leveled off nationally, including in states that haven’t begun to close down again, according to data from OpenTable, the reservations website.

“This suggests that renewed fears about the virus, rather than government restrictions, are driving the pullback in activity,” said Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, a forecasting firm.

Data from Kronos, which produces work-scheduling software for small businesses, reinforces evidence that the recovery of the job market is faltering.
In the week that ended July 4, layoffs among Kronos’ clients actually rose and hirings declined. Companies are now laying off an average of nearly three workers for every new hire, the company’s data shows.

And in the retail industry, the number of shifts worked changed little last week after steady increases in previous weeks. David Gilbertson, a vice president at Kronos, said this suggests that consumer demand in many cases hasn’t picked up enough to justify more employees.

“Everything that’s going to be open is open,” Gilbertson said. “Now, we just need more people to come in and start spending money before things can pick up again.”
Several companies have warned in recent days that more layoffs are coming. Levi’s, the iconic jeans maker, said it will cut 700 corporate jobs. United Airlines has warned 36,000 of its employees — nearly half its workforce — that they could lose their jobs in October. (Airlines aren’t allowed to cut jobs until then as a condition of accepting billions of dollars in government rescue aid.)

The renewed threat of job losses is arising just as a federal program that provides $600 a week in unemployment benefits, on top of whatever jobless aid each state provides, is to expire at the end of this month. Congressional leaders have said they will take up some form of a new rescue package when lawmakers return later this month from a two-week recess.

Administration officials have expressed support for additional stimulus. But Senate Republicans have opposed extending the $600 a week in unemployment benefits, mainly on the ground that it discourages laid-off people from returning to work. House Democrats have pushed to extend the $600 a week through January.

Key Coronavirus Crisis Links

TPM’s COVID-19 hub.
Josh Marshall’s Twitter List of Trusted Experts (Epidemiologists, Researchers, Clinicians, Journalists, Government Agencies) providing reliable real-time information on the COVID-19 Crisis.
COVID-19 Tracking Project (updated data on testing and infections in the U.S.).
Johns Hopkins Global COVID-19 Survey (most up to date numbers globally and for countries around the world).
Worldometers.info (extensive source of information and data visualizations on COVID-19 Crisis — discussion of data here).
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