Analysis: For Hastert and GOP, Next 24 Hours Are CrucialWe’re still waiting for the official announcements, but it sounds like we already know what we’re going to hear: Hastert isn’t leaving, and he’s adopting a “buck stops here” stance; the House ethics committee is going to appoint a special counsel to conduct a broad investigation, led by former FBI head Louis Freeh.
[Update: the committee has since announced it will investigate the program itself. Freeh will lead a separate probe, at Hastert’s request. Late Update: Ha. Pelosi nixed Freeh. I’m sending my crystal ball in for repair.]
That means that Hastert and the House GOP will have taken their best shot at leading the next news cycle. They’re taking charge (finally), starting a probe, and accepting a little responsibility — at least rhetorically.
Here’s the thing: Hastert and the GOP need to lead at least an entire news cycle to shift the momentum of the story. They’re already walking wounded; as just one example, MSNBC is reporting Hastert has canceled all of his fundraising appearances for the next two weeks. They need a solid day of good press. I don’t know if they’ll get it; but this is basically their one chance.
The press is already acting a little wary. But to make things worse, we understand that there are other revelations about lawmakers’ misbehavior with pages waiting to erupt. Other members, other pages, other scenarios that haven’t become public. If any of that dirt breaks in the next 24 hours — well, it would most likely blow a hole through the GOP message that they’ve got the situation under control, and start a whole new wave of what-did-they-know, when-did-they-know-it. And it will be even less enjoyable than the first round.
On the flip side, if Hastert and the GOP controls the cycle through tomorrow and into the weekend, they might hang on. I don’t know if they could undo the damage of the last week, but it might not be the catastrophe some have predicted.
