Rick Santorum is leading in Michigan. Nate Silver at the New York Times gives him a 77% chance of beating Romney in the state he grew up in. Still, Santorum seems to be tamping down expectations. In Boise, Idaho yesterday, Santorum told reporters, “I’m used to running in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania and Michigan have a lot of similarities. We hope we can plant our flag there and do well, and hopefully finish a good strong second.” Santorum has a point; you never know what will happen after two weeks of negative ads against you.
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