In his latest forecast, statistics whiz Nate Silver gives Republicans a roughly 60 percent chance of winning control of the Senate in the November elections.
“Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn’t leave them much room for error,” Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight on Monday.
The statistician who rose to fame for correctly forecasting the outcome of elections noted that his latest analysis is similar to his previous Senate forecasts which give Republicans a slight edge.
Republicans need to win a net of 6 seats in the Nov. 4 elections order to retake the majority. The fundamentals favor them in several key contests.
Shocking, it’s a Kapur article.
Didn’t their odds used to be a hell of a lot higher than 60%? An actual reporter probably would have told us
Profit!
" That makes them very slight favorites …"
That should of been the basis for the headline.
Begich 50-50?
Pryor with 3-2 odds to lose?
Nunn a 75% chance to lose?
I don’t know, Nate.
I think Silver is an absolute whiz with polling data, but as he says, a lot of these races have lousy recent polling data, so he sets it aside. That leaves him to analyze “the fundamentals,” and I don’t trust him (or anyone) all that much to analyze the fundamentals this time. Things are just too screwy.
Quick, in a district with an open seat being vacated by a Republican, with a Republican House, Democratic Senate, and Democratic White House, which party benefits from “throw the bums out” sentiment?
Beats me.
Nate also says that a lot can change in between now and the election and that it is quite possible one party could win all the open races.
The fact that the GOP is struggling in Kentucky and Georgia is a huge tell. And even though they have an edge on 51 seats, 52 is almost certainly out of their grasp. GOP situation is very much like Romney in 2008 - only one way for them to win: they have to sweep the board in their good states. Only difference is that they now hold an edge in those seats.
If the GOP can’t take the Senate this year they are locked out till 2018 or 2020. The 2016 election will be when the Tea Party wave seats come up for re-election and very little chance that the GOP makes more ground.
GOP is going to be limited to the House for quite some time and even that is going to be up for grabs in 2016. Hilary’s coat tails are probably big enough to overcome GOP disenfranchisement and gerrymandering.
The Republican takeover of the Senate is a likelihood that we should prepare for. I’m convinced that, politically, things will get worse for progressives before they get better. Angry white voters, especially male voters, are, if anything, RELIABLE voters, and the GOP is counting on a facade of fear to encourage this bloc of voters into voting GOPTP. In the short term it will likely be a successful strategy. Check out the article at Alternet