Super Tuesday Is Here: LiveBlog And Results

LIVEBLOG: Super Tuesday

But … it’s already Thursday.

538’s current frozen model has Biden with roughly a 2:1 (65% to 34%) advantage over Sanders in likelihood of eventually securing a plurality of pledged delegates, which has me in a much happier and more comfortable mood than last week’s fever dream.

Never put Iowa in charge of anything ever again.

RE-POSTED FROM ANOTHER THREAD:

Super Tuesday forecast/prediction thread. With so many wild changes in such a short time, everything is a crap shoot. Just trying to have some fun in a turbulent political time. So here goes. Biden wins 9 contests (AL, AR, TN, OK, NC, VA, MN, TX, AS). Bernie wins 6 (ME, VT, CO, UT, Democrats Abroad, CA). Warren wins MA.

In general, the Biden surge makes his margins in his strong states bigger, and Bernie’s margins in his states smaller. Bloomberg will be Steyer 2.0. He’ll lose points in some states, hold steady in others, but won’t gain that much. Warren is on the bubble but may well benefit from a smaller field as undecided have to go somewhere.

One thing to watch for: underestimating the size of the Biden surge. If Biden’s surge is say 3 to 5 points higher, Warren and Bloomberg may get swept under not place in many states. In addition, today will test Bernie’s resiliency among Latinx voters, as they are perhaps the only reason he is still favored in CO/CA and to make it very close in TX.

Bernie has not been able to expand his numbers to the 40%-50% range, which has given Biden an opening due to consolidation. At some point, stuff has to add up to 100%. Not Bernie voters are turning out at a high clip while Bernie favored demos aren’t making up a high enough share of the electorate.

Here’s the state by state breakdown:

[NOTE: SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO NEW POLLING].

1. Massachusetts: Pre-SC polls: Warren 20.2, Bernie 20.7, Biden 12.5, Bloomberg 11.3, Pete 12.4, Klounchar, 8.

Post-SC and realignments: Warren 33%, Bernie 23%, Biden 23%, Bloomberg, 13%, Pete 2.7%, Klobuchar 3%.

[NOTE: I will say that I’m not that confident in this MA prediction. Warren’s body language doesn’t look good and I could see Biden winning it].

2. Maine: Few polls, but ME has a primary now. Older voters and a more moderate tilt among such voters will make this tight: Bernie 31%, Biden 27%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 14.7%, Pete 2%, Klobuchar 1%.

3. Minnesota: Klobuchar’s last internal poll had her up 32-19-15 over Bernie/Biden. Biden had been gaining there over the past week. With Klobuchar dropping out, the lion share of that vote goes to Joe:

Biden 34.6%, Bernie 29.2%, Warren 13.9%, Bloomberg 8.8%, Amy 6.6%, Pete 1.7%.

4. Utah: Few polls. First Dem primary in a long while (prior contests have been caucuses). Lots of VBM, older voters. Orientation of Dems is much more centrist (think Ben McAdams). Biden will place.
   Bernie 28.2%, Biden 27.8%, Bloomberg 23.3%, Warren 17.4%, Pete 2.3%, Klobuchar 1%.

5. Colorado: Few polls. Large undecided. Many voters waiting to see SC result. Biden will surge, but Bernie’s strength with younger Latinx voters + Bloomberg will allow him to hold off Biden:

Bernie 33%, Biden 22%, Warren 18.3%, Bloomberg 18.8%. I’m not at all confident about the Warren /Bloomberg numbers. I think we could see a 5-7 point shift to Joe here to make the race even tighter.

6. Alabama Similar demos to SC. Biden will put up an SC like result.

Biden 56%, Bloomberg 14%, Bernie 13.5%, Warren 8%, Pete 3%, Amy 2%.

7. Tennessee Biden will win the white moderate vote and black vote across the South.

Biden 47%, Bernie 20.8%, Bloomberg 17.8%, Warren 7.9%, Pete 3%, Amy 2%.

8. Arkansas. Few polls, but the SC ripple effect will happen here where Biden’s share of white voters will increase with Pete/Amy dropping out and Bloomberg voters shifting back to Biden by about 7%:

Biden 50.8%, Bernie 20.6%, Bloomberg 16.2%, Warren 9%, Pete 1%, Klobuchar 1%.

9. Oklahoma Polls were tight here with Bloomberg doing well but Sanders never registered the same kind of pulse he had in 2016. A shift from Bloomberg to Biden, plus an alignment of white moderates and black voters will give Biden a clear win:

Biden 49%, Sanders 20%, Bloomberg 16%, Warren 8%, Pete 3%, Klo 2%

10. Virginia It was a tight race Pre-SC per polling, but the demos favor Biden and they’re lining up behind him. VA was the epicenter of the Dem resurgence in the Trump era that led to the 2018 blue wave. That electorate shows up for Biden today:

Biden 42.9%, Sanders 26.3%, Bloomberg 15.4%, Warren 12.6%, Pete 2%, Klobuchar 1%

11. North Carolina Another tight race that opens up for Biden post-SC.

Biden 39.7%, Bernie 27.1%, Bloomberg 15.7%, Warren 10.9%, Pete 2.5%, Amy 2.1%.

12. Texas Very tight race, but a late Biden surge among black, Latinx and white moderate voters gives Biden an edge:

Biden 31%, Bernie 30%, Bloomberg 17%, Warren 15%, Pete 3%, Amy 2%.

[NOTE: If the new Civitas poll in NC showing Bloomberg dropping to 10% is correct and Biden gaining, you should see a ripple effect across the South, including TX. Bloomberg is the only reason the race is tight. If Bloomberg does fall further than the polls indicate, Biden could win TX by 4-5 points].

13. California The center left awakens to make this a race. Biden is winning over 50% of those who are casting their ballots in the last 4-5 days (a majority of voters btw).

Bernie 34%, Biden 29%, Warren 19%, Bloomberg 13%, Pete 2.3%, Klobuchar 1%.

[NOTE: I’m not confident in that Warren number. Her body language does not look good. If Biden takes more Bloomberg/Warren vote, CA could be very, very close].

14-15. American Samoa - HRC won it last time by a big margin. About 300 people vote. I’ll say that it’s 55-45. Dem Abroad: Bernie won last time, he’ll win again.

16. Vermont - Bernie wins but DFP has 2 others qualifying for delegates. Go figure.

The delegate differential between Biden/Bernie will be close, but Biden has the edge as the map shifts to him. He’ll clean up in FL, MO, LA, MS. He’ll also be in position, with a consolidated field, to win in the midwest.