We’ll be following first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary as Granite Staters vote for the Democratic presidential nominee Tuesday. Coming out of the disastrous Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire will offer a solid glimpse of where the candidates stand and how they’ll maneuver their campaigns in Nevada, South Carolina and beyond.
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Go Bernie!
Pete got a couple of late polls in his favor. Here are my predictions:
Electorate: 18-34: 18%; 35-49: 22%; 50-64: 35%; 65+ 24%. That’s a pretty good electorate for Pete as he has a consistent level of performance across all age demos (17%-21%). Bernie is a bit top heavy, getting most of his votes from younger voters.
Now for the order/percentages
Bernie-Pete tie (+/- 2%. Irrelevant for delegate calculation purposes, but I’ll say Bernie 26%, Pete 25%).
Warren - 16%
Biden - 15%
Klobuchar - 11.5%
Gabbard - 2%
Yang - 2%
Bloomberg - 1%
Steyer - 1%
Turnout: 267k.
You have Bloomberg at only 1%? I think he’ll do better than that. Maybe 5%, and a little more wouldn’t surprise me. All at Biden’s expense.
Bernie should enjoy this while it lasts because this is the last primary he will win, with the exception of Vermont, perhaps. My Vermont friends are really tired of him, though.
What was the turnout in 2016?