We’ll be following first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary as Granite Staters vote for the Democratic presidential nominee Tuesday. Coming out of the disastrous Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire will offer a solid glimpse of where the candidates stand and how they’ll maneuver their campaigns in Nevada, South Carolina and beyond.
What To Expect
- Voting in most communities ends around 7 or 8 p.m. ET, with results expected shortly after that.
- Unlike Iowa's caucus system, New Hampshirites vote in a presidential primary: One person, one vote — and the ballot is secret.
- However, rules apply when it comes to apportioning the delegates that will cast votes at the Democratic National Convention in July.
- Delegates are divided between candidates who earn at least 15% of the popular vote.
- New Hampshire sends 24 pledged delegates and nine unpledged or superdelegates to the Democratic National Convention: The former vote in the first round at the DNC and the latter, who are not assigned to a candidate according to vote tallies, can participate in the second round at the DNC if no single candidate wins the nomination the first time around.
- Of the 24 pledged delegates, eight each are awarded based on the state-wide popular vote, the vote in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, and the vote in New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District.
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We’ll be following first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary as Granite Staters vote for the Democratic presidential nominee Tuesday. Coming out of the disastrous Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire will offer a solid glimpse of where the candidates stand and how they’ll maneuver their campaigns in Nevada, South Carolina and beyond.
Go Bernie!
Pete got a couple of late polls in his favor. Here are my predictions:
Electorate: 18-34: 18%; 35-49: 22%; 50-64: 35%; 65+ 24%. That’s a pretty good electorate for Pete as he has a consistent level of performance across all age demos (17%-21%). Bernie is a bit top heavy, getting most of his votes from younger voters.
Now for the order/percentages
Bernie-Pete tie (+/- 2%. Irrelevant for delegate calculation purposes, but I’ll say Bernie 26%, Pete 25%).
Warren - 16%
Biden - 15%
Klobuchar - 11.5%
Gabbard - 2%
Yang - 2%
Bloomberg - 1%
Steyer - 1%
Turnout: 267k.
You have Bloomberg at only 1%? I think he’ll do better than that. Maybe 5%, and a little more wouldn’t surprise me. All at Biden’s expense.
Bernie should enjoy this while it lasts because this is the last primary he will win, with the exception of Vermont, perhaps. My Vermont friends are really tired of him, though.
What was the turnout in 2016?