MANCHESTER, NH — Republican voters are hitting the polls today in the nation’s first primary. Polls, as they have throughout the campaign, show Mitt Romney with a dominant lead but beyond that it’s unclear who will finish second through fourth and a number of big last-second developments could potentially have a major effect on the final vote tallies. Without further ado, let’s review five of the big story lines to watch tonight.
Romney vs. The Kitchen Sink
Mitt Romney’s frontrunner status in New Hampshire has never really been in doubt, but the state is proving a dangerous laboratory for the rest of the field to test out by far the toughest anti-Romney attacks yet. In particular, the last few days have seen an explosion of coverage of Romney’s career at Bain Capital as multiple candidates have gone on the offensive over its history of layoffs and are highlighting cases in which companies that went bankrupt still ended up producing huge profits for Romney and his fellow executives. Romney, for his part, hasn’t helped matters by recounting the times he was worried about getting a pink slip and then talking about how much he likes being able to fire people. The latter was a reference to health care providers not employees, but Democrats and Republicans alike are all too happy to use the video to reinforce their Romney-as-Gordon-Gekko message. If Romney underperforms in the polls, his opponents may decide they’re onto something.
Nasty Newt
It already feels like a distant memory, but just three weeks ago Newt Gingrich was running an aggressively positive campaign in which he frequently insisted in debates and on the campaign trail that the Republican rivals should unite in order to defeat President Obama. So much for that idea. Embittered by negative attacks from pro-Romney Super PACs in Iowa, Gingrich is on a one-man commando mission to destroy Romney’s campaign at any cost, attacking him for anything and everything with a surprisingly populist take on Bain Capital that could probably draw applause at an Occupy Wall Street rally. Will his newly vicious tone turn off his supporters? Or can he maintain a solid position even while he goes all out to stop Romney? If he does better than expected, he has all the more reason to turn the volume up to 11 in South Carolina, where he’ll be helped by $5 million in anti-Bain ads from supporter Sheldon Adelson.
Santorum’s Social Problem
Rick Santorum’s anti-gay message may play well in evangelical-heavy Iowa, but New Hampshire is traditionally less concerned with the fire and brimstone social conservatism he’s best known for. He drew silence at best and boos at worst slamming gay rights at his campaign events and, perhaps getting the message, a healthy round of applause when he took a conciliatory tone towards gay Americans in Sunday’s debate. It would be easy to write off a loss and move on to more conservative South Carolina, but Santorum has invested a huge amount of time in winning over New Hampshire residents. A big loss could kill his momentum and raise questions about whether his Iowa performance was a demographic fluke.
Huntsmentum
Jon Huntsman owns the dubious distinction of being the only major Republican candidate not to get their moment in the sun with a big polling surge. But he’s actually closing the New Hampshire primary, where he’s spent by far more time campaigning than any other candidate, with some wind at his back. He scored a nice endorsement from the Boston Globe, got off the best line of Sundays debate defending his work as ambassador to China from Romney’s attacks, and the latest polling shows him threatening to take second place in the state. While it’s hard to see a path to the nomination from there, it should buy Huntsman a ticket to South Carolina and Florida and at least a moral victory he can take back to Utah.
Ron Paul
While other candidates swing wildly in the polls, Ron Paul has the hardest floor of support of the field thanks to his loyal and well organized base of supporters. But the same doctrinare libertarian and anti-interventionist positions that energize his base also put a ceiling on his support with the broader Republican electorate. His biggest role in the campaign might be clearing the path for Romney — every state where he takes a 10%-20% chunk of the primary vote is a state that the weak frontrunner can win with a smaller plurality. Paul has slipped slightly in New Hampshire polling lately, but he still will likely take a big portion of the vote, making it harder for any of the anti-Romney candidates to gain momentum with a standout performance. If Paul comes in second, will he head into South Carolina with more fuel to repeat the pattern there?
