As top Republicans lament the ongoing presidential primary’s toll on the party, the RNC is out with a detailed memo arguing that the extended fight is not harmful to their chances in November. And if it is, well, don’t blame the RNC.
“Over the last few weeks, pundits have made some incredibly improbable predictions for the 2012 Republican primary,” RNC communications director Sean Spicer writes in the memo. “But while this intense focus on the process of the primaries makes for great chatter, it has turned some myths into inaccurate conventional wisdom. The stories, forecasts, and endless buzz are no doubt engaging, but they are rooted in neither facts nor precedent.”
As TPM reported, the RNC changed its rules in 2010 to encourage a longer primary, but things really got out of hand when various states disobeyed their prescribed schedule and spread the contests out over a longer period than was originally intended. Spicer doesn’t mention the states that ignored the RNC’s orders and added another month to the campaign, most notably Florida, but does note that large states like Texas and California whose delegates might have been decisive moved their primaries to later dates for their own reasons.
As for whether the campaign is doing damage, Spicer compares the contest to the 2008 fight between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, which many Democrats feared at the time would weaken the party:
Democrat leaders issued dire warnings. “This idea of backbiting and sniping on an hourly basis is undermining our ability to win an election,” said Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT). Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) argued, “As far as the delegate count and the interests of a Democratic victory in November go, there is not a very good reason for drawing this out.”
Then Barack Obama won the general election, and Democrats, riding on his coattails, expanded their majorities in the House and Senate.
While accurate that these fears proved overblown, one reason Republicans have been less than pleased with the primary is that they don’t seem to be getting the same benefits as the Obama/Clinton fight. Turnout and voter registration shot up in Democratic primary states thanks to the competitive race, but it’s been down in most Republican contests. And, unlike in 2008, frontrunner Mitt Romney is rapidly losing popularity and financial strength as the race goes on rather than gaining as Obama did.
Spicer also argues that it’s a “myth” that the party is demoralizing Republican voters, despite some polls showing GOP enthusiasm waning. Spicer cites a recent Gallup poll to counter these claims:
According to Gallup, Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats, 53 to 45 percent. Republicans in 2012 are more enthusiastic than Republicans in 2008 by 53 to 44 percent. And Republicans have given more thought to the election than Democrats by 70 to 58 percent.
Other Republican officials have come forward in recent days to defend the primary process, or at least deflect blame from the RNC. One issue, not mentioned in Spicer’s memo, that’s come up a lot that wasn’t a factor in 2008: super PACs. The ease with which Republican candidates can use these independent groups to level devastating negative attacks is worrying to some party leaders, who argue it’s been a much bigger factor than any scheduling issues.
Paul Senft, an RNC committeeman from Florida, told TPM that the “uncalculated and unintended consequences of the super PACs” were creating problems in what might otherwise be a productive long primary.
“It put a lot of money into it — the depth and breadth of the carpet bombing done with negative campaigning was not anticipated,” he said. “We probably gave ourselves too much credit, thinking we’re above it, we won’t do that to each other. But Reagan’s 11th Commandment, ‘Dont speak ill of Republicans,’ looks like it’s almost gone and forgotten.”
Michael Steele, who as RNC chair approved the current rules, made a similar case on MSNBC this week, saying Mitt Romney’s “Death Star” of negative ads against his rivals was the top culprit in dragging the process down.
The full RNC memo is below:
MEMO
FROM: Sean Spicer, RNC Communications Director @seanspicerTO: Interested Parties
RE: Weekend Messaging Memo
“The Brokered Convention.” “The White Knight.” “The Endless Primary.”
Over the last few weeks, pundits have made some incredibly improbable predictions for the 2012 Republican primary.
But while this intense focus on the process of the primaries makes for great chatter, it has turned some myths into inaccurate conventional wisdom. The stories, forecasts, and endless buzz are no doubt engaging, but they are rooted in neither facts nor precedent.
It’s time for a reality check.
Myth 1: A long primary is a bad primary
How quickly we forget recent history.
Even in early February, the pundits were lamenting an endless, arduous primary. But in 2008, the Democratic primary was contested into early June. Barely two months into the 2012 race and it’s being treated as though it’s vastly longer than the 5-month 2008 race.
Until the very end, Clinton and Obama were haggling over Superdelegates, waging searing attacks, and griping over DNC rules and bylaws as they scrambled for every last vote.
When Obama attacked Hillary over her healthcare plan, she famously shot back, “Shame on you Barack Obama,” accusing him of lies and hypocrisy and fuming that he would dare attack another Democrat over universal healthcare.
Clinton attacked him over ties to slum lord Tony Rezko. She clobbered him with the 3am phone call. She pegged him as an elitist after he ridiculed Americans who “cling to their guns and religion.”
The fights got personal, and the internecine battle was waged publicly in debate after debate and in the endless news coverage.
“A present for McCain as the other side fights” read a New York Times headline. From AFP: “Democrat Dead-Heat ‘Not Good News’ Says Dean.” And from the Boston Globe: “McCain Media Adviser Says Democrats Hurting Themselves.”
Democrat leaders issued dire warnings. “This idea of backbiting and sniping on an hourly basis is undermining our ability to win an election,”said Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT). Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) argued, “As far as the delegate count and the interests of a Democratic victory in November go, there is not a very good reason for drawing this out.”
Then Barack Obama won the General Election, and Democrats, riding on his coattails, expanded their majorities in the House and Senate.
Myth 2: A short primary is a good primary
Meanwhile, John McCain wrapped up the nomination in early March, which, according to today’s conventional wisdom should have given him an unbeatable advantage over his bloodied and bruised eventual rival.
If only. With the media focused on the Democrats and their ongoing primary, McCain flew largely under the radar.
But, for perhaps a better analogy, go back to 2004 when Democrats were attempting to unseat an incumbent president.
It was on March 2-today’s date, in fact-that John Kerry became the de facto nominee. Eight months later, President Bush not only beat Kerry, he won more states than he did in 2000.
Compare that to Republicans’ last victory over a sitting president. In 1980, Ronald Reagan did not clinch the nomination until May 20.
Myth 3: The Primary Calendar is a Result Only of the RNC Rules Change
After 2008, the RNC sought to change the primary calendar in an effort to give more states a voice in the process. The committee charged with this task unanimously approved the new calendar, which the full Republican National Committee then approved with a two-thirds vote.
Because of the proportional allocation of delegates in earlier states, it was expected this would most likely lead to a somewhat longer process. But much of the actual primary scheduling was more a function of state politics than RNC rules.
For example, California, a delegate treasure-trove with 172 delegates, chose to put their primary in June. There was no RNC policy that required this. It was a choice made in California.
Then there’s Texas, with 155 delegates, whose primary would be fast approaching were it not for a prolonged redistricting process and legal battle. Again, it’s unrelated to the calendar or rules put forth by the RNC.
Myth 4: The primary has turned off Republican voters
Gallup polling from yesterday says otherwise.
According to Gallup, Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats, 53 to 45 percent. Republicans in 2012 are more enthusiastic than Republicans in 2008 by 53 to 44 percent. And Republicans have given more thought to the election than Democrats by 70 to 58 percent.
The bottom line from Gallup: “The 2012 GOP nomination battle…has certainly provided a strong basis for Republicans to become engaged in this year’s election.”
In addition they point out, ” Gallup’s latest trial heats for the fall election show both Republican front-runners statistically tied with Obama among registered voters.”
So much for that long, destructive primary.
Remember: We’ve only been at this for two months, and 172 out of 2286 delegates have been awarded. In a few more months, the primary will seem like a distant memory.
Ultimately, one of the four current candidates will be the Republican nominee. Our party will then unite 100 percent around him. The momentum and enthusiasm of the primaries will carry us forward toward victory in November and on to the White House.
