The war between the establishment wing of the GOP and the insurgent Tea Party isn’t over yet. And this May, another battle is approaching, with six-term Sen. Dick Lugar facing a primary challenge from state Treasurer Richard Mourdock.
Lugar was first elected to the Senate in 1976, defeating a Democratic incumbent. Before that, he had been Mayor of Indianapolis from 1968-1976, and only narrowly lost a Senate race in the Democratic wave year of 1974. He has not had a tough re-election fight since 1982, which he won by an 8-point margin — and after that, he has won by margins of over 30 points against only token Democratic opposition. In 2006, his last race, he didn’t have any Democratic opponent at all — winning by 87%-13% against a Libertarian candidate.
But in 2012, perhaps making up for lost time, he could face two separate challenges. On the Democratic side, three-term Rep. Joe Donnelly is running. But before that, Lugar will face a Republican challenge from his right on May 8, from Mourdock.
In a poll this past November from WISH-TV/Franklin College, Lugar had a lead of 49%-28%. So on the one hand, Lugar the incumbent is just shy of 50%, considered a key marker for any incumbent, and possibly even more concerning with the party’s base. But nevertheless, he still has a 21-point lead, a big gap for a challenger to make up. So can he do it?
Mourdock announced his campaign last February, and has been busy working to build up support from Tea Party activists and other conservative groups, by harnessing resentments that Lugar is too moderate after his long tenure in Washington.
In an e-mail exchange with TPM, Mourdock spokesman Chris Conner said “We started with almost 3/4 of the Republican County Chairmen and both National GOP Committeemen supporting our campaign. We have added thousands of volunteers since then along with the endorsement of a coalition representing 55 tea party groups across the state. We have garnered major endorsements from such national figures as Steve Forbes, Dick Morris, Mark Levin and Morton Blackwell as well as major national groups like Tea Party Express and Freedom Works. We have raised over $1 million against an entrenched incumbent in a primary.”
But make no mistake — Mourdock is still way behind in the money race. Federal Election Commission papers up through September 30, 2011, the last date for which data is available, showed that Lugar had $2.7 million for the race, with even more on hand, $3.8 million, thanks to war chests built up from past cycles. By contrast, Mourdock had raised just $904,000, and had only $291,640 on hand (along with $115,350 in debt).
And that gap has definitely counted so far. As National Journal recently reported (paid subscription required), Lugar launched a statewide radio buy that totaled $25,200. But by comparison, Mourdock was reportedly only able to “match” it with a $600 ad buy, running for one day.
In response to the current major fundraising and spending gap, Conner replied: “Many donors and national groups will wait until the final months to get involved. Some will wait until the February 10 filing deadline to get involved. We are confident we will have the resources to get our message to the primary voters.”
TPM asked a Republican source in Indiana about the state of the race, and whether Mourdock has a real shot.
“I think a lot of stars have to align for that to happen,” said the source. “And at the moment, they’re not coming into place as Mourdock would hope. I think they kind of came into this – they came in with a lot of good will on the grassroots level. You know, Richard Mourdock has spent he last several years traveling around the state, going to Lincoln Day Dinner and chili cook-offs and what-not, and really getting to know people at the county, precinct level across the state. You can almost guarantee that at most of these Lincoln-Day dinners, that if he’s not the speaker, he will be in attendance. So he came in with a lot of good will, a lot of support.”
But can Mourdock build on that support among local Republican activists? And can he compete in statewide media?
“To really do justice in Indiana when it comes to media advertising, you have go to Cincinnati, Louisville and Chicago. You have to go to those three out of state markets to really cover the state of Indiana,” the source said. “And quite frequently candidates will forego those markets and focus on Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Terre Haute, and Evansville. So it’s kind of quirky in that regard, that you have to go to three out-of-state markets, to communicate with your own constituents.”
In an interview with TPM, Lugar campaign political director David Willkie was asked how serious the campaign was taking Mourdock as a threat. Willkie noted that the campaign has already been on the radio for months.
“So compared to previous election cycles, if we weren’t out here and on the ground, then that would show that we weren’t being serious,” said Willkie. “That we have certainly been in operations that have been over a year long, our phone banks have made over 500,000 phone calls — so I would say, are we being serious about this? Absolutely serious.”
As for the accusations that Lugar has worked too much with Democrats, Willkie took a two-pronged approach — point out that Lugar has worked with state Attorney General Greg Zoeller (R) on litigation against health care reform, and last week formally signed onto a Senate Republican brief against law in the Supreme Court case.
“So basically what I’m saying is, talk about misinformation on things. I mean, my gosh.”
But furthermore, Willkie explained Lugar’s votes in favor of Justices Sotomayor and Kagan — viewing it as a follow-up of the work he did in winning Democratic votes for the confirmation of Chief Justice John Roberts: “One reason Dick Lugar has been so effective is, people respect him. so you’ve got to do the stuff that’s for you, you’ve gotta do the stuff that’s against you, too,” said Willkie, also adding: “Dick Lugar is an honest negotiator. he’s a tough negotiator, but he’s honest, and he’ll take the heat. So it’s a long term perspective, versus a short term perspective, plain and simple.”
And as an example of how Lugar has harnessed that momentum, Willkie boasted that Lugar, as Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has pushed the Obama administration on the Keystone XL pipeline, and backed them into a legislative corner on approving the pipeline. This would in turn stimulate jobs, Willkie said, as the Caterpillar company in Indiana would build a lot of machinery for the pipeline.
In response to the Lugar campaign’s boasts that he has both effectively opposed the administration, and gotten results for Indiana, Conner responded: “After years in Washington as being one of the Democrats’ most likely Republican targets for supporting their agenda, suddenly Senator Lugar is lurching to the right in order to distance himself from Obama and the Democrat to win re-election It is a fact that when Senator McConnell and 32 other GOP Senators file an amicus brief in support of Florida’s lawsuit to overturn ObamaCare in November of 2010, Lugar refused to sign it. Indiana is a Plaintiff in that case as well. Now that he has a serious primary challenge, he finally decided last Friday to sign on to a similar brief. Many voters in both parties will see this as self-serving.
“Republicans are fed up with Washington and don’t want to elect candidates who just want to go to Washington to play the game and bring home pork-barrel spending to the state. They sense that there is something much more at stake. We must reduce spending and balance the budget if we are ever going to restore economic prosperity.”
