Scott Walker got a massive cheer from the crowd in Tampa Tuesday at the Republican National Convention. And Republicans think that love for Walker is one of many signs that Wisconsin is about to flip from blue to red.
Walker’s June 5 recall win and Rep. Paul Ryan’s ascension to the GOP presidential ticket has emboldened Republicans that they’re within reach of the Badger State — a point they again made the case for Tuesday.
“[Obama Deputy Campaign Manager] Stephanie Cutter said the recall was going to be a dress rehearsal for November,” Romney for President Political Director Rich Beeson told reporters on a conference call Tuesday. “If that’s true, then opening night isn’t going to go very well.”
Beeson was needling the Obama side for its vaunted ground game, a major component of the president’s 2008 romp and a key to winning close votes in swing states. Wisconsin was not one of those states — Obama carried it by almost 14 points, and it’s voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1984.
But with Walker breezing to victory and bolstering his approval rating in a highly polarized state, Republicans say those days are over, and polling shows they have an argument.
“I’m from Wisconsin — where Republicans have done pretty well in recent years,” said national Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus said from the RNC podium on Tuesday night. “Well, here’s why: Because we govern like we campaign. We made promises and we kept promises. That’s what Americans want. Leaders of their word.”
The PollTracker Average shows Obama’s lead in the state, which hovered around 10 points in the early part of the year, then tightened to between 5 and 7 points as summer came, is now down to 1 point since Ryan was selected.
“The data here is consistent with Ryan being an asset to the campaign in Wisconsin,” Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll, said about Marquette’s most recent numbers, which show Obama up 3 points among likely voters.
A Democratic senior official brushed back on Republicans’ newfound hope for Wisconsin. “Democrats have carried Wisconsin in five consecutive presidential elections,” the official told TPM on a conference call. “Second of all, let’s get a couple of weeks down past the Ryan pick, past the conventions before we see where Wisconsin is in this whole thing.”
But Republicans said this time is different — they not only have electoral momentum, but they can also compete with the Democrats’ political machinery.
“The intensity gap we have out there — it’s been favoring Republicans throughout this year,” RNC Political Director Rick Wiley said on the call. “We didn’t miss a beat. We went from Gov. Walker’s recall to Gov. Romney’s campaign, and the team on the ground has done an excellent job.”
