As Newt Gingrich has proven — twice — you don’t embarrass Mitt Romney without suffering consequences. And so, now that Rick Santorum has swept Romney in three primary contests in one night, you can expect Romney’s negative ad firehose to be trained on the former Senator from Pennsylvania.
Viewers and voters in Arizona and Michigan — sites of the next two primary contests on Feb. 28 — can expect to be bombarded with anti-Santorum ads from the Romney campaign and its massively-funded super PAC, Restore Our Future. As we saw in both Florida and Iowa, this is a powerful combination that turned back Gingrich’s surging poll numbers.
What will the attacks look like? On Wednesday morning, Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom signaled the likely coming wave.
“Whether you’re talking about Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, they’re really two peas in a pod,” Ferhnstrom told MSNBC. “Longtime Washington [figures] who never really left Washington after their legislative careers ended.”
So there you have it: Rick Santorum, Washington Insider. Get used to hearing that phrase.
This is a similar line of attack to the one Romney used on Santorum back in Iowa, when the two fought it out in the final days before ending the caucus race in essentially a dead heat. Romney’s team returned to many of the same themes a couple days ago when they first made it clear that Santorum was in their sights once again.
It’s worth noting at this point that these three were the first contests not characterized by massive negative attack ad campaigns by Team Romney. Don’t expect his ad buyers to make the same mistake twice.
But Romney has more on his side than just attack ads heading into the next two contests. Michigan is where his father made his political career and is Romney’s childhood state. Way back in September — when Rick Perry was still his main foe — Romney crushed the field in a closely-watched Michigan straw poll. The current TPM Poll Average shows Romney with a healthy lead.
Polls tell the same story in Arizona, where a sizable Mormon population could also help Romney win. It’s also a border state, and Romney’s most pure conservative credential is on the subject of illegal immigration. So look to hear a lot about “amnesty.”
Romney will also rely on the continuing fact that he has not one but two main rivals. Santorum spent just about as much time attacking Gingrich as he did going after Romney in the lead up to his hat-trick Tuesday night. Gingrich has made it clear he intends to stay in the race, so Romney can probably count on Santorum wasting valuable resources jockeying for the second place spot with Gingrich. In the end, that’s probably the best news Romney can hope for.
That said, it’s clear that results Tuesday show Romney’s got some serious work to do. And some observers say he might need to make more fundamental changes to how he’s running.
Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak said, “Romney’s key problem is the perception that he is weak — a weak conservative and a weak nominee. He needs to find ways to close the enthusiasm gap. Bold solutions attacking his rivals may earn delegates but it does not solve the fundamental problem.”
“Inevitability is not a strategy. But the map still sets up best for Romney,” Mackowiak concluded.
